ECB To Cut Rates Again As Lagarde Sees Disinflation "Well On Track"
January 30 2025 - 7:53AM
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The European Central Bank lowered its interest rates for a
fourth policy session in a row on Thursday and is likely to opt for
more easing going forward as policymakers seek neutrality amid a
slump in Eurozone growth and expectations for inflation to return
to target over the course of the year.
The Governing Council, led by ECB President Christine Lagarde,
lowered the benchmark - the deposit rate - by 25 basis points to
2.75 percent. The main refinancing rate was trimmed by a similar
volume to 2.90 percent and the lending rate to 3.15 percent,
respectively.
The central bank for the single currency bloc has lowered
interest rates by a quarter basis points each in every rate-setting
session since September. "The disinflation process is well on
track," the ECB said in a statement.
"Inflation has continued to develop broadly in line with the
staff projections and is set to return to the Governing Council's 2
percent medium-term target in the course of this year," the bank
said.
Monetary policy remains restrictive, the bank reiterated, adding
that rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of
restrictive monetary policy should support a pick-up in demand over
time.
Responding to questions from reporters, Lagarde said the latest
rate cut decision was unanimous and that it was "premature" for
policymakers to discuss an end to policy easing. While the U.S.
Federal Reserve adopted a wait-and-watch approach on Wednesday as
it left the federal funds rate unchanged, the ECB is likely not
done with rate cuts. Economists are looking forward to the next
reduction as soon as March.
Commerzbank economists said the ECB is set lower rates by three
times, by 25 basis points each, by the middle of the year. "The
next step is likely to take place in March, when the ECB publishes
its updated projections for inflation and GDP," Commerzbank
economist Jorg Kramer said. "We continue to expect the deposit rate
to reach 2.0 percent in the middle of the year."
ING economist Carsten Brzeski said Lagarde's press conference
signaled a clear intent to lower rates further.
"They're still in restrictive territory, and reaching neutral
seems like the next stop - but not necessarily the final one,"
Brzeski said. "We think Lagarde's position on the lookout for
economic developments could very well turn into a full blown
sprint." The ECB also reiterated that policymakers would stick to a
data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine the
appropriate monetary policy stance and that they will not
pre-commit to a particular rate path. Eurozone economy stagnated in
the fourth quarter of 2024, official data showed earlier on
Thursday. In the policy statement, Lagarde said the economy is set
to remain weak in the near term as manufacturing continues to
shrink and household consumption needs a boost despite rising real
incomes.
Meanwhile, conditions for a recovery remain in place, Lagarde
said. A robust labor market and more affordable credit are expected
to boost consumer confidence and consumption.
The risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside,
Lagarde said. In December, the ECB staff had lowered their economic
growth projections.
Price growth in the euro area accelerated to a five-month high
of 2.4 percent in December, while core inflation held steady at 2.7
percent. The central bank sees upside risks to euro area inflation
from bigger than expected increase wages or profits and heightened
geopolitical tensions that could push commodity prices and, freight
costs and disrupt global trade.
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