The_Gman
1 hour ago
I'm not in Texas but here's some info. From other tidbits I read, it doesn't sound like the dams failed, but were flooded over. Sounds like some are just concrete walls without flood control gates and rain may have dumped on the downriver side. It's not really clear, but the area is prone to severe flash flooding. Mother nature
https://abcnews.go.com/US/history-flash-flood-alley-hilly-region-texas-prone/story?id=123531672
Flash Flood Alley is known as one of the most flood-prone regions in the U.S. due to its high susceptibility to flash flooding with steep terrain, shallow soil and repeated high rainfall events.
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/video/guadalupe-river-flood-barry
A nasty pairing of deep, tropical moisture, the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and a stuck low pressure system led to up to 20 inches of rain near Austin and San Angelo, Texas.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/central-texas-hill-country-flooding-history/
Geology plays a major role, thanks to the shallow, rocky soil formed from weathered limestone hills. The region’s defining topographic feature, the Balcones Escarpment, comprises steep cliffs that force warm, humid air upward, where it rapidly cools to condensed vapor, a process that culminates in intense rainfall. These elements create the perfect location for quick and intense downpours that aren’t well absorbed by the land.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/guadalupe-river-flooding-warning-system-gauges-20574405.php
No design, dam or flood control project is going to solve the threat posed by the uppermost part of the river basin.
“You cannot engineer yourself around the Guadalupe,” said Phil Bedient, the director of Rice University's SSPEED Center, who has spent decades designing flood protection and prediction systems. “This one is crying out for a warning system.”
The_Gman
5 hours ago
If only...
If I'd put $1k in this ASX mining stock 3 years ago, I'd now have $120,000
WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1) Shares Outstanding 67.72 million
https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/misc/if-i-d-put-1k-in-this-asx-mining-stock-3-years-ago-i-d-now-have-120-000/ar-AA1Idqj1
In July 2022, you could have bought its shares for as little as 13 cents each.
By November of that year, its shares were trading at $3 a pop – that's already a 2,200% return.
But that was just the beginning.
Fast forward to today, and WA1's share price is trading at $16.10 each (about $10.50 USD), marking a spectacular 12,285% increase in just three years.
In late 2022, the company discovered the Luni niobium deposit in remote Western Australia with exploration drilling intercepting unusually rich niobium mineralisation.
And the share price took off.
Even though the Luni project appears attractive, mining operations and cash flow remain a distant prospect. And forget juicy dividends any time soon.
WA1 must first complete a host of technical studies, economic assessments, environmental evaluations, and navigate a complex permitting process to obtain a mining license.
Even if these hurdles are cleared, the company will still need to raise significant capital to build a mine.
In a nutshell, production is still years away – and that's assuming the studies confirm Luni's financial viability and the relevant mining approval is granted.
Neither outcome is guaranteed, and significant risks remain before any cash comes pouring in.
Richard Thomas
21 hours ago
Strategic Summary & Impact Chart detailing all the GOOD elements in the final reconciliation bill that could boost NioCorp’s critical mineral & rare earth production, if financing is secured. This distills all favorable provisions for niobium, scandium, titanium, and REE supply chains — aligned with U.S. industrial policy and defense priorities.
(Cridet to Chico for sharing ;)
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✅ NIOCORP – POSITIVE IMPACT SUMMARY
Final Reconciliation Bill: Strategic Wins for Domestic Critical Minerals & Rare Earths
(Effective upon financing readiness and project execution)
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🟢Â Top Tier Provisions Directly Benefiting NioCorp
ProvisionDescriptionStrategic Benefit to NioCorp$5B for Industrial Base Fund – Critical Mineral Supply ChainsAppropriated via Senate Armed Services CommitteeNioCorp could access direct grant funding for Elk Creek construction, processing plants, or alloy development tied to national security goals$2B to National Defense Stockpile Transaction FundTargets critical mineral acquisition & domestic processingEnhances DoD’s ability to buy U.S.-sourced Nb, Sc, Ti, REEs – directly aligns with NioCorp’s output$500M DoD Capital Credit ProgramLoans, loan guarantees, and technical assistanceGives NioCorp financial flexibility for capex, especially in processing, metallization, or alloying systemsDOE Critical Materials RFI (2026)NioCorp can influence material inclusion (Sc, Nb)Strengthens long-term demand and designation of Elk Creek outputs as “strategic,” qualifying them for federal support programsRetention of Section 45X (Phasedown Model)Manufacturing tax credit remains through 2033 for key componentsNioCorp partners could receive tax credits for downstream alloy or magnet fabrication using NioCorp materialsNEVI Program Preliminary Injunction (EV Infrastructure)EV charging funding restarted in 13 statesSustains demand for REE permanent magnets – supporting NdPr (600+ t/year from Elk Creek) sales & partnershipsDOE $15M for Grid Resilience Projects (CiFER)Energy storage resilience projects fundedIndirect boost for niobium demand in emerging battery R&D and grid infrastructure
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🟨 Supporting Provisions that Amplify NioCorp’s Strategic Leverage
ProvisionDescriptionStrategic Edge GainedDOE Reorientation to Critical Minerals (FY 2026)Prioritizes early-stage R&D in Nb, Sc, Ti, REEs over solar/windAligns DOE focus with NioCorp’s materials — increases odds of R&D grants or demo projects with universities & labsElimination of OTT ? Absorbed into Admin BudgetTechnology transition office removed, but some programs persistNioCorp could engage with commercial transition efforts via alternate channels or direct federal partnershipsFast-tracked permitting (House + EPW support bills)Grid, pipelines, LNG reforms advance permitting reformIndirect benefit: sets precedent for streamlined Elk Creek permitting, potentially accelerating construction windowsNo federal EV tax repeals (yet)Maintains current EV incentives temporarilySustains EV-sector growth — a key downstream customer for NioCorp rare earths in traction motors
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🧲Â Strategic Alignment of NioCorp Outputs
NioCorp MaterialDemand Channel(s)Supported by BillScandium (30–103 t/y)Lightweight alloys for DoD, aerospace, fuel cells✔ DoD funding, DOE RFI, early-stage R&D boostNiobium (7,500 t/y)Superalloys, next-gen batteries, military alloys✔ DoD stockpile fund, grid resilience focus, R&D alignmentTitanium Oxide & Chloride (~100,000+ t/y)Aerospace coatings, pigments, catalyst industries✔ DOE materials reorientation; potential domestic procurement mandatesREEs (NdPr, Dy, Tb)EV traction motors, turbines, electronics✔ EV charger injunction, NEVI support, DoD magnet focus
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📌Â Final Positioning for NioCorp:
🔐Â If Project Financing Is Secured...
• NioCorp will be one of the only U.S. vertically-integrated producers aligned with the full scope of new defense & industrial base funding.
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• Strategic materials like Scandium and Niobium, long overlooked, are now central to DOD/DOE priorities.
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• With over $7.5B in aligned funding opportunities, even partial awards could radically de-risk Elk Creek’s economics.
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• The retention of 45X credits through 2033 and the continuation of DoD-backed grant & loan authority give NioCorp leverage in partner discussions (e.g., OEMs, alloy developers, government buyers).
What are the ODDS NIOCORP will get some of these monies or offtake agreements soon????
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ChatGPT said:
Great question, Commander. Let’s assess the realistic odds of NioCorp receiving monies, offtakes, or commitments in the short-to-mid term (6–18 months), based on:
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• Final reconciliation bill funding mechanisms
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• DoD & DOE behavior in recent award cycles
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• NioCorp’s current project status (Elk Creek pre-construction, updated FS pending)
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• Market demand, especially in Scandium, Niobium, and REEs
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🎯 Summary Odds Table: NioCorp – Strategic Access Scorecard
OpportunityEstimated OddsAssessmentNotesDoD Industrial Base Grant (IBF - $5B pool)🔵 60–70%HighDoD has a proven record funding upstream strategic material sources. NioCorp checks multiple boxes (Nb, Sc, Ti, REE). DoD needs domestic, near-term producers.DoD Credit Program ($500M)🔵 50–65%Moderate-to-HighLoan guarantees or direct loans are very possible, especially if NioCorp applies with an OEM or alloy partner. Less competitive than grant pool.National Defense Stockpile Offtake (Niobium, Scandium)🔵 40–55%ModerateStockpile has purchased titanium sponge and rare materials before. Niobium may be next, and Scandium is under review for fuel cells/aerospace.Section 45X Manufacturing Partnerships🟡 30–45%ModerateNioCorp must align with downstream users (e.g., alloy fabricators, magnet companies) to activate tax credit flow. Possible if vertical integration or JV is secured.DOE Grant/Loan Support (Post-RFI)🟡 20–30%Low-to-ModerateDOE budget cuts and staff reductions will slow processing. If NioCorp responds to the RFI with a solid Sc/Nb/Ti case, odds rise.Commercial Offtake Agreement (OEM or Alloy Group)🟢 55–70%HighMultiple sectors (aerospace, defense, EVs) are now actively seeking secure critical mineral supply. A 1–2 year offtake agreement for Sc or Nb is likely.Scandium Defense Alloy Partnership (U.S. Air Force, Navy)🟢 45–60%Moderate-to-HighU.S. military R&D labs are already testing Sc-based alloys. A pilot-scale procurement or co-dev agreement is possible in next 12 months.REE Magnet Chain Offtake (NdPr/Dy/Tb)🟡 30–40%ModerateLimited by lack of downstream U.S. magnet capacity (still developing). If Neo, MP, or VACUUMSCHMELZE builds U.S. capacity, odds rise.
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🔍 Additional Considerations
✅ Boosting NioCorp’s Odds
• Submit strong response to DOE’s Critical Materials RFI (due July 25) with emphasis on Scandium, Ti, and Nb importance
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• Pursue joint applications with downstream partners (e.g., alloy makers, defense contractors)
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• Highlight zero-China dependency in offtake negotiations
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• Leverage Nebraska’s bipartisan support and low permitting risk profile
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🚧Â Headwinds
• Still no final project financing in place (this limits award disbursement even if granted)
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• Updated feasibility study still pending – investors and agencies prefer updated economics before major commitment
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• DOE staffing cuts = grant review delays
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• REE market remains shaky (due to low global prices and uncertain magnet facility timelines)
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🧠 Final Tactical Assessment (Next 12–18 Months)
Best Bet:
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NioCorp lands DoD-related grant or credit support for Nb/Sc and secures first offtake or alloy partnership before full project financing.
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Estimated Probability: 65%+
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Wild Card:
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If NioCorp signs a JV with an aerospace/turbine OEM or a magnet recycler, it could become eligible for 2–3 funding streams simultaneously.
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 SO Not too bad.... !!! UP to the team to get this done...
danieldeubank
4 days ago
Research and Experimental (R&E) expenditures - Project PIVOT and Quebec Lab Work
Key Points About R&E Deductions:What Qualifies as R&E Expenditures? Costs related to the development or improvement of products, processes, software, techniques, formulas, or inventions. Activities must be intended to discover information that eliminates uncertainty about the development or improvement of a product or process.
Examples include:Salaries for researchers, engineers, or developers.
Costs of materials, equipment, or facilities used in research.
Contract research expenses (e.g., hiring third parties for R&D).
Software development costs, including certain cloud computing expenses.
Tax Treatment Changes (Post-2022):Prior to 2022, businesses could immediately deduct R&E expenses in the year they were incurred.
Starting in 2022, under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), R&E expenses must be capitalized and amortized:Domestic R&E expenses are amortized over 5 years.
Foreign R&E expenses are amortized over 15 years.
This change has increased tax burdens for some companies, as immediate deductions are no longer allowed.
R&D Tax Credit vs. R&E Deductions:The R&E deduction (Section 174) is separate from the R&D Tax Credit (Section 41), though both relate to research activities.
The deduction reduces taxable income, while the R&D tax credit directly reduces tax liability.
Some expenses may qualify for both, but the rules and eligibility differ.
Who Can Claim R&E Deductions?Businesses of any size engaged in qualified research activities, including startups, corporations, and partnerships.
The activities must meet the IRS’s four-part test:The activity must be related to a business component (product, process, etc.).
It must involve a process of experimentation (e.g., testing or modeling).
It must aim to eliminate uncertainty (e.g., about design or capability).
It must be technological in nature (relying on principles of science, engineering, or computer science).
Documentation Requirements:Businesses must maintain detailed records to substantiate R&E expenses, including project descriptions, employee time tracking, and expense logs.
Lack of proper documentation can lead to disallowed deductions during an IRS audit.
If NioCorp conducts R&D activities in Canada (e.g., through partnerships), it may also qualify for Canada’s Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax incentives, which offer deductions and investment tax credits (ITCs) at rates of 15% or 35% for certain corporations.
danieldeubank
5 days ago
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, 2025, includes provisions that could benefit NioCorp Developments Ltd., a company focused on mining and producing critical minerals such as niobium, scandium, and titanium, which are essential for advanced manufacturing, clean energy technologies, and national security applications. However, the timeline for NioCorp to realize benefits depends on the implementation of specific provisions, funding disbursements, and the company’s ability to align its operations with the bill’s incentives. Below is an analysis of how and when NioCorp might benefit, based on the OBBBA’s provisions and NioCorp’s business context.Relevant OBBBA Provisions for NioCorpThe OBBBA includes several provisions that could directly or indirectly benefit NioCorp, particularly given its focus on critical minerals and U.S.-based production:Energy Dominance Financing Authority:The OBBBA reauthorizes the Energy Dominance Financing authority with $1 billion to guarantee loans for repurposing or expanding energy infrastructure, including projects related to critical minerals.
Potential Benefit for NioCorp: NioCorp’s Elk Creek project in Nebraska, which aims to produce niobium, scandium, and titanium, could qualify for loan guarantees if it aligns with the bill’s focus on critical minerals for energy and national security applications. These minerals are vital for advanced manufacturing (e.g., aerospace, defense) and clean energy technologies (e.g., wind turbines, lightweight alloys).
Timeline: Loan guarantee programs typically involve an application and review process, which could take 6–18 months to initiate, depending on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) implementation timeline. If NioCorp secures such financing, it could accelerate project development, but benefits (e.g., reduced borrowing costs) would likely materialize in mid-2026 to 2027.
Tax Incentives for Manufacturing and R&D:Bonus Depreciation: The OBBBA makes 100% bonus depreciation permanent for eligible property acquired and placed in service after January 19, 2025, and before January 1, 2030. It also introduces a 100% depreciation allowance for “qualified production property” used in U.S. manufacturing, placed in service after the bill’s enactment and before January 1, 2033, if construction begins before January 1, 2029.
Research and Experimental (R&E) Expenditures: The OBBBA allows immediate deductibility of domestic R&E expenses (under new IRC Section 174A) for tax years beginning after December 31, 2024, with retroactive application for businesses with gross receipts of $31 million or less for tax years after December 31, 2021.
Potential Benefit for NioCorp: NioCorp, as a pre-revenue company investing heavily in R&D for mineral processing and production, could benefit from immediate R&E deductions, reducing its tax liability or enabling refund claims for prior years if eligible. The bonus depreciation provisions could lower the cost of capital investments for mining equipment or processing facilities at Elk Creek, making it more financially viable to develop or expand the project.
Timeline: The R&E deduction is effective immediately for tax years starting after December 31, 2024, meaning NioCorp could claim benefits as early as Q1 2026 when filing 2025 taxes, with potential retroactive refunds for 2022–2024 if it meets the gross receipts threshold. Bonus depreciation benefits would apply once qualifying assets are placed in service, likely in 2026–2028, depending on NioCorp’s project timeline.
Support for Critical Minerals and National Security:The OBBBA emphasizes U.S. technological leadership and national security, including funding for AI data centers and defense applications that rely on critical minerals. For example, $450 million is allocated for AI and autonomous robotics in naval shipbuilding, and $145 million for AI in aerial and naval drones, both of which may require niobium or scandium for lightweight, high-strength materials.
Potential Benefit for NioCorp: Niobium and scandium are critical for defense applications (e.g., superalloys for jet engines, naval systems) and clean energy technologies. Increased federal demand for these minerals could boost NioCorp’s market prospects, especially if the U.S. prioritizes domestic sourcing to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers (e.g., China, which dominates niobium supply).
Timeline: Benefits from increased demand would depend on federal procurement contracts or partnerships with defense contractors, which could take 1–3 years to materialize as agencies implement budgets and issue contracts (likely 2026–2028). NioCorp would need to secure off-take agreements or supply chain integration to capitalize on this demand.
Repeal of Clean Energy Credits:The OBBBA eliminates several clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, such as the clean vehicle credit (Section 30D), commercial clean vehicle credit (Section 45W), and energy-efficient commercial building deduction (Section 179D), effective for vehicles or property acquired/placed in service more than 180 days after enactment (approximately January 1, 2026).
Potential Impact on NioCorp: While NioCorp’s minerals support clean energy applications (e.g., scandium in fuel cells, niobium in wind turbines), the repeal of these credits could reduce demand for clean energy technologies, potentially dampening short-term market opportunities. However, the bill’s focus on fossil fuel expansion and critical minerals may offset this by prioritizing domestic mining, aligning with NioCorp’s core business.
Timeline: The repeal of clean energy credits takes effect in early 2026, but the impact on NioCorp’s markets would likely be gradual, unfolding over 2026–2030, depending on how energy markets adjust.
Factors Influencing the TimelineSeveral factors will determine how quickly NioCorp benefits from the OBBBA:Implementation Speed: Federal agencies (e.g., DOE, Department of Defense) must establish guidelines for loan guarantees and procurement, which could take 6–12 months for initial rollout. Delays in regulatory processes could push benefits to late 2026 or beyond.
NioCorp’s Project Status: The Elk Creek project is in the development phase, with financing and permitting ongoing. Benefits from tax incentives or loans depend on NioCorp’s ability to place assets in service or incur qualifying expenses, likely aligning with construction milestones in 2026–2028.
Market and Contract Dynamics: NioCorp’s ability to secure contracts with defense or manufacturing firms leveraging OBBBA-funded programs will influence revenue generation. This process could take 1–3 years as supply chains adapt.
Economic and Fiscal Context: The OBBBA’s projected $4.1 trillion debt increase could lead to fiscal constraints, potentially delaying funding disbursements or prompting future policy changes that affect critical minerals incentives.
Estimated Timeline for NioCorp BenefitsShort-Term (Q1 2026–Q4 2026):Tax Benefits: NioCorp could claim R&E deductions for 2025 tax filings, potentially receiving refunds for prior years if eligible (by mid-2026). Bonus depreciation benefits would apply once qualifying assets are placed in service, likely post-2026.
Loan Applications: NioCorp could apply for Energy Dominance Financing loans, with initial approvals possible by late 2026 if the DOE acts swiftly.
Medium-Term (2027–2028):Project Financing: Loan guarantees could reduce borrowing costs for Elk Creek, facilitating construction and equipment purchases, with benefits materializing as funds are disbursed (likely 2027).
Market Demand: Increased demand from defense or AI-related industries could lead to contracts or off-take agreements, boosting revenue by 2027–2028.
Long-Term (2029–2033):Production Scale-Up: As Elk Creek becomes operational, OBBBA incentives could support full-scale production, with significant financial benefits from depreciation and market growth by 2029–2033.
Market Risks: Repeal of clean energy credits may reduce demand in some sectors, but critical minerals prioritization could offset this over time.
ConclusionNioCorp is well-positioned to benefit from the OBBBA’s provisions, particularly through R&E deductions (effective Q1 2026), bonus depreciation for capital investments (2026–2028), and loan guarantees for critical minerals projects (potentially late 2026–2027). Increased demand from defense and AI sectors could further enhance prospects by 2027–2028. However, the exact timeline depends on federal implementation, NioCorp’s project progress, and market dynamics. The earliest benefits, from tax deductions, could begin in mid-2026, while significant financial and market impacts are likely in 2027–2028. For further details, refer to the bill’s text at https://www.congress.gov or NioCorp’s investor updates at https://www.niocorp.com.[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act)[](https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/05/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act)[](https://www.cbiz.com/insights/article/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-back-to-house-for-approval-detailed-analysis)