August US sales volume is expected to be one
of the largest of the year, given 28 selling days and the inclusion
of Labor Day weekend activity; but sales are still searching for
the next gear
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Aug. 27,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On a volume estimate of
1.42 million units, S&P Global Mobility expects US light
vehicle sales in August to be up more than 7% year over year and
grow more than 11% from the month-prior level. This translates to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million units, a
moderate reading in a market continuing to wait for sales levels to
advance more strongly.
Monthly US light vehicle sales volume in
August is expected to be one of the largest of the year
"New vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle
preventing further advances in the pace of auto sales," said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility. "The current environment of still-high
interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices are translating to
still-high monthly payments and little progress for new vehicle
demand levels."
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected
over the remainder of the year—two levers necessary for
affordability issues to ease and sales to progress. But recent
developments reflect some volatility for both metrics.
According to Matt Trommer,
associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of July
retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that
inventory declined compared to month-end June reporting, the first
month-over-month drop since May 2023.
Available retail advertised inventory at the end of July was up
52.5% compared to last year, but down 2.3% from June
2024."
|
|
|
|
|
|
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Aug 24
(Est)
|
July
24
|
Aug
23
|
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,422,000
|
1,273,115
|
1,318,588
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.2
|
15.8
|
15.3
|
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.4
|
12.8
|
12.2
|
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
2.8
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, moderate
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. August BEV share is
expected to reach 8.1%, similar to the month-prior reading and
continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results.
BEV share is expected to progress over the next several months,
continuing the upward trend realized since April 2024, assisted by the roll outs of vehicles
such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, followed by
new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated
for release in the second half of 2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility