Oil Climbs as More Producers Join Output Cuts
December 11 2016 - 9:50PM
Dow Jones News
Crude futures surged by more than 4% in Monday-morning trade in
Asia after more oil-producing nations agreed to slash production, a
move aimed at pushing the oversupplied oil market into a rebalance,
or even a deficit, to prop up oil prices.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures
for delivery in January recently traded at $53.79 a barrel, up
$2.29 in the Globex electronic session. February Brent crude on
London's ICE Futures exchange rose $2.26 to $56.59 a barrel, the
highest level in more than a year.
Energy stocks also soared on the news. In Hong Kong, PetroChina
was up 2.4% and Cnooc was up 1.8%. In Australia, Woodside Petroleum
was up 3.1% and Oil Search was up 3.5%. In Japan, Inpex was up
1.7%.
Over the weekend, a group of heavyweight producers outside of
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including
Russia, agreed to scale back their output by 558,000 barrels a day.
The move would come on top of the cut of 1.2 million barrels a day
agreed to by OPEC in late November. The total reduction represents
almost 2% of the global supply.
The non-OPEC cuts, if carried out as described over the first
half of 2017, would represent an unprecedented level of cooperation
among oil-producing countries that have been groping for ways to
lift oil prices out of a two-year funk.
"This is truly a historic event," Russian Energy Minister
Alexander Novak said. "It is the first time that so many
oil-producing countries from different parts of the world have
gathered in one room to accomplish what we have done."
The bulk of the cuts—300,000 barrels a day—have been pledged by
Russia, which produces more crude oil than any other country. Other
output reductions are promised by 10 other countries, including
Oman, Azerbaijan and Sudan.
Bernstein Research noted that some of the non-OPEC supply cuts
would come from natural decline but that most would come from
self-imposed cuts.
The market got an extra boost of confidence on reports that
Saudi Arabia indicated that, if necessary, the kingdom may be
willing to take a deeper cut than the 486,000-barrel cut it had
agreed in the November meeting.
"The latest development is buoying optimism in the market. It
shows that the OPEC has overcome a significant hurdle," said Vivek
Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of
Australia.
However, he also warned that compliance by the agreed parties
remains a glaring downside risk, given these oil producers haven't
always been forthcoming about their production levels, despite
their pledges to rein in output.
The production-cut deal will take effect Jan. 1, and the oil
producers will reconvene in six month to assess the deal.
"At this stage, the safe assumption is that they will be
[compliant], especially, in the first few months," said Ric
Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.
Another concern is how fast the U.S. shale producers will ramp
up their production in a bid to capture the higher prices.
"While there will be a supply response from shale, we believe
that as long as prices stay at around $60 a barrel, U.S. production
will not increase by more than 500,000 from current levels,"
Bernstein said, adding that at that pace, increasing U.S.
production wouldn't be enough to offset the decline in OPEC and
non-OPEC output combined with the additional 1.2 million barrels a
day in demand growth.
Higher oil prices are also ramping up inflation expectations,
pushing yields on government bonds higher early Monday, with the
yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury last at 2.426% after a sharp
rise on Friday to 2.469%. The yield on a similar bond in Japan
reached its highest level since mid-February, last at 0.070%
compared with 0.056% Friday. Yields rise as prices fall.
The weekend's deal "clearly is going to secure inflationary
pressures" going into the first quarter of 2017, said Stuart Ive, a
private client manager at OM Financial Ltd. in New Zealand.
Benoit Faucon, Nathan Hodge, Summer Said, Willa Plank and Rachel
Rosenthal contributed to this article.
Write to Jenny W. Hsu at jenny.hsu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 11, 2016 22:35 ET (03:35 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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