senor_c
2 hours ago
Forget the quotes; that's some pretty damn good verified DD, which equals more conviction for all! Good to know JAB's intel (and others who have been digging around on this issue finding nice nuggets) is legit. Not that I ever doubted it, JAB. It all just confirms that the Delfin boys have not just been twiddling their thumbs the last 10 months and that they have every intention of moving forward full speed ahead on these ships (pun intended). Not to mention that they even adjusted their plan from Wison to a Chinese company (via Samsung). That's impressive action considering how long everything takes in this industry.
If they are in serious talks about ships 2-4, that only means all the speculation about pending contracts, etc., is our future reality once DOE gives the green light (or maybe sooner). It's impressive that we're in a pretty solid holding pattern on price. I'm surprised people have not become impatient, wanting to take some profits, but most know that if you sell at these levels, the chances of getting the same lot size at a lower price are slim (unless you get another person who puts in a market order at the open!). I've got some orders between .25 and .30 just in case, but I'm ready to smack that ask if we move on permits. Volume and maintained price with this shell company tells the story on long-term holder sentiment!
Great DD from everyone lately while we all wait. Nice work!
kazzy
10 hours ago
Again, nothing new... but a quick mention in a Vitol article with some insight from the CEO, Russell Hardy.
https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/news-content-hub/vitols-lng-chartering-adapting-to-a-volatile-market-83867
Vitol’s involvement in US LNG trade extends beyond recent contracts. Under the previous Trump administration, the company positioned itself as an early mover in US LNG exports. In 2018, it signed a 15-year deal with Delfin Midstream for three million tonnes per annum from the proposed Delfin LNG project in the Gulf of Mexico (also referred to as Gulf of America). The following year, it agreed to purchase 1.5M tonnes per annum from Tellurian Inc.’s Driftwood LNG terminal in Louisiana. These agreements were part of the broader push to expand US LNG exports during that administration.
Despite regulatory uncertainty in the US, Mr Hardy has stated that he does not expect new policies to materially alter the global LNG supply balance before 2030. “I don’t think the new US [LNG] policies are going to dramatically change that balance out to 2030, but they may have an impact in the next decade,” he said in February 2025 at India Energy Week 2025. With approximately 200M tonnes of new LNG supply set to enter the market between 2028 and 2031, Vitol is positioning itself to play a role in this expansion, balancing long-term contracts with opportunistic trading in the spot market.
kazzy
5 days ago
Lifting Biden’s LNG pause will boost American energy jobs and the economy.
More of the same, but with further insight into the politics.
In January 2024, the Biden administration announced an indefinite pause on new LNG export permits. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers criticized the move as a “gift to Putin.” This decision limited the vital role of the U.S. in supplying LNG to Europe and Ukraine, a nation at war, ultimately discouraging our allies’ independence from Russian energy. As a result of the Biden administration’s LNG pause, capital-intensive projects, such as Calcasieu Pass 2, Delfin LNG, Lake Charles LNG and Commonwealth LNG, were halted despite commercial progress, leaving our allies overseas vulnerable and American jobs uncertain.
With Mr. Trump back in office, American natural gas companies can have confidence that their projects will receive proper consideration. This allows the U.S. to follow through on its commitments to its allies overseas, which were routinely qualified under the Biden administration.
...
After the de facto pause, the Department of Energy stated that it would complete a study on the projects to examine whether more LNG exports were in the public’s best interest. After delays, congressional letters and a lengthy court battle in Louisiana, the department released its long-anticipated study.
However, former Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm’s summary of the study politicized the issue. Ms. Granholm concluded the report by emphasizing that the business-as-usual approach is “neither sustainable nor advisable.” Although this was likely the summary regardless of the study’s merits, some aspects of Ms. Granholm’s assumptions are particularly concerning. She correctly wrote that U.S. LNG “has proven critical” for Europe as it weans off Russian gas. However, in the Department of Energy’s study scenarios and analysis, “Russian pipeline exports” to the EU “increase slightly through 2035.” In other words, the study accounts for Russian pipelines that are not currently online.
The Department of Energy, under Mr. Trump, extended the study to March 20 to ensure such public interest determinations receive appropriate stakeholder input.
...
A comprehensive study by S&P Global projects that the export capacity of U.S. LNG will double over the next five years. It found that exports of U.S. LNG would support roughly a half-million domestic jobs annually over the next 15 years. On its current growth trajectory, exports would contribute about $1.3 trillion to the nation’s gross domestic product through 2040 while barely impacting gas prices at home.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/feb/13/lifting-biden-lng-pause-boost-american-energy-jobs/
Anyone planning on seeing this through to 2040?
Mr. C
5 days ago
Yup, it’s for the onshore component, but those are the timelines.
I’m thinking selling out two is their goal as recently stated, but it depends on how this changes the market for them.
They’ve been getting a bunch of these little 0.5-1.0 MTPA buys, but maybe that changes quick.
Financing just the two ships though is likely not possible without doing a RM, but I’m not them or their bank, so I couldn’t say
Mr. C
5 days ago
FERC ends September 28, 2027. That’s exactly 31.5 months from today, so they might be able to do it if they shave a couple months.
Delfin requested in their filings with MARAD and DOE to extend the NFTA deadline to June 1st, 2029.
Donald Trump is in there still when FERC expires, so we should be good.
They might have to extend it anyways because the 4th boat likely won’t be built as the same time as the 1st, unless they sell out quick.
Not sure how the permits work in that regard. Does one boat need to be in the water or all, since they are separate FIDs?