Alpesh Patel's NewsletterPro - Euro and Pound retreat versus the Dollar, will today’s reports offer something else?

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© Alpesh Patel

It was a calm trading day yesterday with no major moves in the currency pairs we monitor in our report. Even though we had events that could spur bigger swings, especially the central banks’ minutes, the releases revealed nothing new and as such market participants didn’t react in any way.

The Euro dropped against the Dollar but the Single currency recovered almost all of its losses during the overnight Asian session and is now again trading around the 1.3750 level. Today’s PMI releases have the potential to bring some momentum back into the pair and expectations are mixed. Depending on how the figures print we could see the Euro climbing towards 1.3800 or dropping to 1.3700 again.

The Pound continued falling against the Dollar even though the minutes’ release from the Bank of England offered positive comments for the economic outlook in the UK. The Unemployment Rate ticked marginally higher in a surprise reading and this development didn’t allow for the British currency to reach for higher ground. The Retail Sales figures expected tomorrow will offer the last piece of data for the Pound for this week while the British coin has been retreating since last Friday.

The US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the Pound yesterday even though the Housing data released were a disappointment. The central bank’s minutes’ release was full of positive comments for the economy and it seems that the policymakers are committed in continuing their tapering agenda even though recent data have been discouraging. The inflation level and the Initial Jobless Claims numbers expected today can help the Dollar gain even more ground against the other majors in a week that has been pretty calm for all currencies up to now.

European Flash PMIs and inflation/unemployment data from the US

The Economic Calendar today holds a couple of important economic releases. Early in the morning the Flash PMIs will offer insight in how the Manufacturing and Services sectors are fairing in Germany and the Euro-zone. The report is a measure of confidence and gauges the business sentiment in these critical sectors and offers important data to consider.

Later in the day, the US Consumer Price Index will be released and we’d like to closely monitor the inflation levels in the US as it is a key measure for the Fed to decide whether its tapering schedule is helping or hurting the economy. Finally, the Initial Jobless Claims is an important precursor to the unemployment rate for this month and we also need to note down the released figures.

Economic Calendar









German PMI Manufacturing






German PMI Services






Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing






Euro-zone PMI Services






Consumer Price Index






Initial Jobless Claims









FTSE 100


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