Professor Glen Arnold

Back in February 2015 I wrote a Newsletter pointing out that we should no longer think of Haynes Publications (LSE:HYNS) as being dependent on old-fashioned paper automotive manuals aimed at DIY enthusiasts. Its push to modernisation was there for all to see in 2015, but it was only last week that Mr Market was able […]

What I heard at Caledonian Trust’s (LSE:CNN) AGM on Friday confirmed my conviction that Mr Market undervalues this share. Its market capitalisation is £13m but one property alone would at least match that, even after paying off all the liabilities. And it has dozens of other properties on top – see earlier Newsletters (particularly 10.1.17) […]

Following on from the last Newsletter outlining some of the results from the paper titled “Value and Momentum Everywhere” today I’ll provide its main results on momentum for the US, UK, continental Europe and Japan. First, a general note on momentum research Academics have been studying momentum for decades now. There are various possibilities, but […]

This is the title of an academic paper published in 2013 which shows that buying value shares in the US, UK, Europe and Japan between the 1970s and 2011 generally resulted in portfolio out-performance. It also shows that buying those shares with “high momentum”, i.e. which had risen the most over the prior twelve months, […]

Warren Buffett book I’ve signed a contract to deliver a book to Harriman House about Warren Buffett. The working title is “The Investment Deals of Warren Buffett: Volume 1, The First $100m”. The vast majority is written because I wrote it for you guys over the past two years. I feel very fortunate that Harriman […]

Asset values Inventories in Scholium’s (LSE:SCHO) accounts are valued at the lower of cost or net realisable value. So at least we do not have the problem of managers estimating “fair value” at each balance sheet date. However we do have the problem of managers being over-optimistic in failing to mark-down the value of a […]

We saw in yesterday’s Newsletter that Scholium (LSE:SCHO) is a net current asset value investment IF we only focus on the quantitative elements, i.e. the balance sheet. But you know from my other Newsletters that I do not only focus on the quantitative. In this Newsletter I want to start an exploration of the firms’ […]

Scholium (LSE:SCHO), a Mayfair-based dealer in rare books, floated on AIM in 2014, raising £7m to expand its small business. In the three years since then, even though inventory doubled, turnover has not budged, resulting in the average time to sell a book being 21 months. I’ll come back to these negatives, and other negatives, […]

What does the 79.1% shareholder think of Caledonian’s prospects? Douglas Lowe, founder and executive chairman wrote in the 2016 Annual Report: “The Registers of Scotland provide detailed figures up to Q3 2016 [on Scottish house prices] ……. Edinburgh recorded the second highest rise of 5.7%……. flats rose by 8.0% and anecdotal evidence indicates that price […]

For eight long years Caledonian Trust (LSE:CNN) has been a holding company for a number of properties in Scotland. Very little was bought, built or sold in that time. But the directors were active in gaining planning permissions, and in enhancing planning permissions. Now that the Scottish property market is picking up, the directors have […]