Matt Simpson

If the US dollar index (DXY) is to follow its seasonal tendency, headwinds could cap upside potential in March before dragging it lower around April. We can see that, whilst January and February have averaged positive returns, their potency has dwindled over the past 5 years (relative to the 30-years) before average returns have become […]

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COTS) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. USD net-long exposure moves to a 6-week high against G10 currencies. Among the FX majors, it was again JPY futures which saw the largest weekly net change, with net-short exposure increasing by 7.5k contracts. Only minor […]

Price action on CAD/CHF has caught our eye, as it suggests a bearish breakout could be pending. Since Wednesday, the cross has been caught within a 36-pip range. It can’t stay in there for ever, although without top-tier calendar events from Canada or Switzerland today, we may have to rely on external events to provide […]

The CAC displays a strong, bullish trend structure coupled with shallow pullbacks into the 8/21 eMA’s. Having broken to a new multi-month high it appears set to extend its trend. Ideally, we’ll see a retracement towards the original breakout level, although momentum is strong so perhaps one to consider for bullish setups on the intraday […]

Citing its near-4% decline from the highs and exhaustion candles beneath its lower Keltner, we highlighted Gold’s potential to mean revert last week. Having rebounded 2.4% from its low, we suspect a corrective top could be in place. Key points: March tends to be a weak month for gold, looking at its seasonal averages Gold’s […]

WTI has broken above $58 resistance with its most bullish session in two weeks. With two distinct hammer lows improving its trend structure, its recent correction found support around its bed of moving averages, and price action is beginning to look clearer as bears get shaken out of their trade. Adjusted for open interest, net-long exposure […]

With US treasury yields starting to turn lower, just as the S&P500 hesitates at critical highs, we take a look at the bigger picture to see if sentiment could be about to turn for the worst. Since topping out in late November, the decline invalidated the September ’18 trendline and confirmed a primary trend reversal […]

Although the trend points lower, mean reversion appears likely over the near-term according to some indications. Z-score, consecutive days and lower Keltner-band test suggest mean-reversion Potential for a rebound towards 1.0370 before heading lower Trend remains bearish below 1.0490   Granted, AUD/NZD may not be a go-to currency choice for some, yet its bearish trend […]

The highs around 2,800 were always going to be closely watched levels. But we’d noted a couple of times over the past two weeks that the area could trigger a correction, given the rally from the 2018 lows had lacked any real mean reversion. With a clear bearish engulfing candle having now formed, we the […]

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COTS) from CFTC to show market positioning. Among FX majors, JPY saw the largest weekly change as bears increased their net short exposure by 11.7k contracts. Volume changes were fairly-light elsewhere for FX majors (all below 10k). 84% of large speculators are long on DXY (US […]