Matt Simpson

Rising Unemployment Weighs on NZD | NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY Weak employment data took its toll on the Kiwi today, seeing expectations for RBNZ to cut rise further. Q3 Unemployment rose to 4.2% (3.9% prior, 4.1% expected) Job growth softened to 0.2% QoQ (0.8% prior, 0.3% expected) Labour costs continued to rise, now 2.3% YoY (although […]

RBA held rates as expected, yet the easing bias remains despite talk of a ‘gentle turning point’. Going into today’s meeting, expectations for a cut were low at just 7% according to the RBA Rate Indicator. But then they had cut rates three times over four meetings, and policy changes can take many months before […]

The USD index (DXY) presented traders with a bearish engulfing candle on both the weekly and monthly chart by Friday’s close. So, will this bearish pattern live up to its grizzly name in the weeks ahead? As of Friday, it was DXY’s most bearish close since January 2018. Yet key support around 97 previously highlighted has continued […]

Weekly COT Report: GBP Traders Are Their Least Bearish In 5 Months As of Tuesday 29th of October Bullish exposure on the USD was $12.6 billion ($15.9 against G10) Traders are their least bearish on GBP futures since early June GBP saw the largest weekly change among FX majors, with net-short exposure being reduced by 20k […]

Overall, gold has a decent chance of breaking to new highs over the coming month/s. Yet whether is opts for direct gains or morphs into a prolonged, complex correction could become clear over the next week. The breakout from the bearish/corrective channel on Friday threw a spanner in the works with its bearish pinbar.  Whilst […]

S&P500: The Long & Short Of It | SPX, SYS, ORLY, EBAY, TXN The S&P500 closed to new highs following yesterday’s Fed meeting, supported by higher earnings whilst also taking comfort from Powell’s comments that a hike is unlikely. Technically, it rests on the pivotal level of 3028, yet resistance nearby awaits. A break above […]

USD Could Be Approaching A Make Or ‘Break’ Scenario Leading Into NFP | DXY, EUR, AUD With DXY and several FX majors approaching their latest set of key levels, we could find they’ll decide whether to break or reverse these levels in unison. Whilst the Fed’s statement teased traders with a hawkish cut, the press conference […]

A Strong Nikkei Could Be Due A Correction | BOJ Up Next The Nikkei has switched from being the underdog to being the strongest performer against its peers this past three months. Since breaking out of a basing pattern in August, its managed to rally over 11% and outperform the S&P500, STOXX and CSI300. Yet […]

BOJ Preview: Expectations, Forward Returns And Some Charts! | USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY With action finally expected from BOJ, it should create volatility for traders regardless of whether they act or not. BOJ surprised markets on the 29th January 2016 by going into negative rates of -0.1, a move that was designed to achieve 2% inflation “at […]

AUD Remain Bid Ahead Of CPI | AUD/USD, AUD/ZD, EUR/AUD If Australian CPI can simply hit target tomorrow, we could see a higher AUD in the current trading environment. CPI is expected to rise tomorrow to 1.7% YoY according to a Reuters poll, up from 1.6% in Q2. However, the RBA’s preferred gauge is the […]