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Markets have become particularly risk averse in the run up to the US Presidential election. The dollar has come under some downward pressure, giving up some ground against the euro, Sterling and the yen. This, coupled with Sterling slowly trying to regain some ground, explained our GBPUSD rally last week.
The US elections may be the key market mover this week With markets very quiet today on the macroeconomics, all eyes are on tomorrow’s election and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this key event take dominance over the currency movements this week. The schedule for the US data calendar is very quiet in terms of high ticket data with the consumer sentiment release for November being the only real release of note. On one hand, a Clinton victory may not actually create much market turbulence, aside from a slight rally based upon relief. On the other hand, a Trump victory could move markets more significantly, given some of his policies and the uncertainty his presidency could create. Historically, USD tends to react more positively to a Democrat presidential seat than a Republican. Overall, it’s quite possible the election will be the key market mover this week and for weeks to come, dependant on the outcome!
Data from the Eurozone Throughout the day, we’ll also have the Eurogroup meetings ongoing during which a range of financial issues are discussed, such as euro support mechanisms and government finances. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day, and a formal statement covering meeting objectives may be released after the meetings have concluded. We also have some PMI data and monthly retail sales figures out from the Eurozone at 9 AM and 10 AM, respectively.
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