Currency

Despite no obvious signs ECB have intervened, EUR/CHF sprang higher after warning of a bear-trap and warns in a change in trend. We’d noted that SNB had been intervening with their currency to prevent the Swiss franc from gaining too much traction, yet not by quite enough to prevent it from trending lower. This was slightly frustrating, […]

NZDCAD has been a trend that has kept on giving. We’ve been following its demise closely, since identifying its test of a long-term bearish trendline back in March, it’s double-top in April and potential 300-pip slide in June. After breaking below the 0.8500 target, the cross remains in an established bearish channel and shows the […]

Weekly COT Report: Bullish Exposure Hits A 5-Week High As of Tuesday 3rd September: Traders increased net-long exposure to USD by +$2.6 billion, which make them the most bullish on USD in 5 weeks at $13.1 billion (or $16.2 billion against G10 currencies) Traders of the US dollar index (DXY) were their most bullish in 6-months […]

In-light of a weaker USD and lift in sentiment, we could see pairs such as USD/CNH and USD/SGD extend their corrections It’s early days, but we’ve seen a slight lift in global sentiment, resulting in the Chinese Yuan being allowed to appreciate against the USD at its fastest daily pace in 2-months yesterday. Considering that […]

The Closer You Look At ISM’s PMI, The Uglier It Gets | EUR/USD, USD/CHF With PMI crossing below 50, calls for a recession are again on the rise. And this is no surprise, given the red flags within the internal indices. Of the 10 sub-indices, 9 are contracting (below 50) New orders are at a […]

AUD Rebounds On Softer Growth | AUD/USD, GBP/AUD Despite the multi-year low for annual GDP, it came in around expectations to help lift the Aussie from its lows. Q3 GDP 1.4% YoY 0.5% MoM   Yesterday we noted that RBA removed any reference to GDP levels in their August statement, which appears to have been a shrewd […]

RBA held rates as expected, although there we some subtle changes to the statement which warrant keeping tabs on. Summary Of The RBA September Statement The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although risks are tilted to the downside GDP in H1 has been lower than expected, with low income growth and declining house […]

RBA and GDP On Tap For AUD and ASX200 The expectations for RBA to cut tomorrow are quite low at just 11%. Therefore, traders will scrutinise the statement for any clues and no doubt short AUD if it appears more dovish than August’s statement. Overall, RBA appeared a little more upbeat on the domestic economy […]

Weekly COT Report: Bullish Exposure on USD Continues To Dwindle As of Tuesday 27th August: Traders were net-long USD by $10.6 billion, down -$0.34 billion from the prior week to make a fresh 14-month low. Against G10 currencies, traders are net long by $13.68 billion, down -$0.82 from the prior week. Traders increased net-short exposure on […]

Historically, September Has Been A Bearish Month For USD/CHF Using historical data, we’ve mapped out a seasonal matrix for FX majors and noted the bearish tendency for USD/CHF in September. The matrix may appear a little confusing at first, although what we’re essentially looking for is a high positive (low negative) number to suggest a […]