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Guardian Stockbrokers Key Economic News Thursday 14 July 2016

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The key points from today’s economic news, brought to you by Guardian Stockbrokers.

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UK house price balance slid in June

In June, house price balance in the UK eased to 16.00, compared to a level of 19.00 in the previous month. Markets were expecting house price balance to fall to a level of 10.00.

Big banks warn demand for credit from households and businesses to slow down post Brexit

The Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Review revealed that major lenders expect a slowdown in demand for credit from households and businesses in the near term as a consequence of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. The report also forecasts the demand for mortgages to further decline.

Euro-zone industrial production fell more than expected in May

In May, on a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted industrial production in the Euro-zone fell 1.20%, more than market expectations for a fall of 0.80%. Industrial production had advanced by a revised 1.40% in the prior month.

French CPI (ex-tobacco) rose less than expected in June

In June, the final CPI (ex-tobacco) in France, climbed 0.10% on a monthly basis, lower than market expectations for a rise of 0.20%. In the previous month, the CPI (ex-tobacco) had registered a rise of 0.40%. The preliminary figures had indicated a rise of 0.20%.

French EU normalised CPI rose less than expected in June

On a MoM basis, in France, the final EU normalised CPI rose 0.10% in June, compared to an advance of 0.50% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for EU normalised CPI to advance 0.20%. The preliminary figures had recorded an advance of 0.20%.

Italian CPI recorded a rise in June

The final CPI registered a rise of 0.10% on a monthly basis in Italy, in June. The CPI had registered a rise of 0.30% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had also recorded a rise of 0.10%.

Italian EU normalised CPI climbed in June

In June, on a MoM basis, the final EU normalised CPI recorded a rise of 0.20% in Italy. The EU normalised CPI had risen 0.30% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had indicated an advance of 0.10%.

Spanish CPI declined as expected in June

On an annual basis, the final CPI registered a drop of 0.80% in Spain, in June, meeting market expectations. In the prior month, the CPI had dropped 1.00%. The preliminary figures had also indicated a drop of 0.80%.

Spanish HICP index declined as expected in June

The final HICP index dropped 0.90% in Spain on an annual basis in June, meeting market expectations. The preliminary figures had also recorded a drop of 0.90%. The HICP index had dropped 1.10% in the previous month.

Spanish HICP index rose as expected in June

The final HICP index recorded a rise of 0.40% in Spain on a MoM basis in June, meeting market expectations. The preliminary figures had also indicated an advance of 0.40%. The HICP index had recorded a rise of 0.50% in the previous month.

Spanish CPI advanced as expected in June

In June, the final CPI in Spain, registered a rise of 0.50% on a MoM basis, meeting market expectations. In the previous month, the CPI had registered a similar rise. The preliminary figures had also recorded an advance of 0.50%.

Economic activity rose at a modest pace in most regions, indicates Fed’s Beige Book survey

According to the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book survey of economic conditions, the US economy has continued to grow at a modest pace from mid-May through the end of June in 9 of its 12 Fed districts, however, it is not providing sufficient evidence to the central bank to raise interest rates in the near future. It further indicated that wage pressures were “modest to moderate” in most of the Fed districts as labour market conditions “remained stable”. Although, inflationary pressures showed signs of softening in the Fed districts, outlook remained optimistic. The report also revealed that only a few contacts were concerned about the impact of the Brexit vote on economic conditions in the US.

Fed’s Kaplan urges ‘slow, gradual, careful’ approach on rates

In a speech in Houston, the Dallas Fed President, Robert Kaplan, indicated that a “slow, gradual, careful” approach to raising interest rates is very appropriate, signalling his reluctance to hike rates. He also stated that boosting growth is the most crucial issue for the nation.

US recorded budget surplus in June

Budget surplus in the US stood at $6.25 billion in June. The US had reported a budget deficit of $52.51 billion in the previous month.

US import price index advanced less than expected in June

The import price index recorded a rise of 0.20% on a MoM basis in the US, in June, compared to an advance of 1.40% in the previous month. Markets were expecting the import price index to rise 0.50%.

US import price index dropped more than expected in June

On a YoY basis, the import price index in the US eased 4.80% in June, more than market expectations for a drop of 4.60%. In the previous month, the import price index had fallen 5.00%.

US mortgage applications advanced in the last week

On a weekly basis, mortgage applications rose 7.20% in the week ended 08 July 2016, in the US. Mortgage applications had registered a rise of 14.20% in the previous week.

BoC maintains key interest rate

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in with market expectations, however mentioned that excessively high house prices particularly in cities like Toronto and Vancouver and the risks of Brexit are posing a threat to Canada’s economy down the line. The BoC also stated that the repercussions from the Alberta wildfires coupled with the uneven consumer spending will be larger than expected and GDP growth will now contract by a larger forecast 1% in the second quarter, following 2.4% growth reported in the first quarter. The report revealed that Brexit will lower the global GDP by 0.2% by the end of 2018.

Canadian house price index climbed in June

The house price index advanced 2.30% on a MoM basis in Canada, in June. In the prior month, the house price index had registered a rise of 1.80%.

Foreign investors turned net sellers of Japanese stocks in the previous week

Foreign investors turned net sellers of ¥306.80 billion worth of Japanese stocks in the week ended 08 July 2016, as compared to being net buyers of a revised ¥113.60 billion worth of Japanese stocks in the previous week.

Japanese capacity utilisation dropped in May

Capacity utilisation dropped 2.40% in Japan on a monthly basis, in May. Capacity utilisation had registered a drop of 1.00% in the prior month.

Japanese industrial production dropped in May

The final industrial production fell 0.40% in Japan on an annual basis, in May. In the previous month, industrial production had dropped 3.30%. The preliminary figures had indicated a drop of 0.10%.

Japanese industrial production slid in May

In May, on a MoM basis, the final industrial production in Japan recorded a drop of 2.60%. Industrial production had risen 0.50% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had recorded a drop of 2.30%.

Japanese Tokyo condominium sales fell in June

In Japan, Tokyo condominium sales slid 12.90% in June on a YoY basis. Tokyo condominium sales had fallen 14.10% in the previous month.

Japanese investors remained net buyers of foreign bonds in the previous week

Japanese investors were net buyers of ¥2549.10 billion worth of foreign bonds in the week ended 08 July 2016, as compared to being net buyers of a revised ¥426.90 billion worth of foreign bonds in the prior week.

Japanese investors became net buyers of foreign stocks in the previous week

Japanese investors were net buyers of ¥221.20 billion worth of foreign stocks in the week ended 08 July 2016, from being net buyers of ¥210.20 billion worth of foreign stocks in the prior week.

Foreign investors became net buyers of Japanese bonds in the previous week

Foreign investors remained net buyers of ¥27.40 billion worth of Japanese bonds in the week ended 08 July 2016, from being net buyers of a revised ¥244.20 billion worth of Japanese bonds in the prior week.

Chinese exports fell less than expected in June

Exports in China slid 4.80% in June on an annual basis, less than market expectations for a fall of 5.00%. In the previous month, exports had recorded a drop of 4.10%.

Chinese trade surplus fell in June

China has registered trade surplus of $48.11 billion in June, compared to a trade surplus of $49.98 billion in the previous month. Market anticipation was for the nation to register a trade surplus of $45.65 billion.

Chinese imports declined more than expected in June

On an annual basis in June, imports eased 8.40% in China, compared to a drop of 0.40% in the previous month. Markets were anticipating imports to drop 6.20%.

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