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Guardian Stockbrokers Key Economic News Thursday 19 January 2017

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The key points from today’s economic news, brought to you by Guardian Stockbrokers.

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Number of unemployment benefits claimants in the UK recorded a rise in December

In the UK, number of unemployment benefits claimants recorded an increase of 2.30 K in December, following a gain of 2.40 K in the previous month. Market expectation was for number of unemployment benefits claimants to rise 5.00 K.

UK average earnings excluding bonus rose more than expected in the September-November 2016 period

In the September-November 2016 period, the average earnings excluding bonus in the UK registered a rise of 2.70% on an annual basis, compared to an advance of 2.60% in the August-October 2016 period. Markets were expecting the average earnings excluding bonus to climb 2.60%.

UK ILO unemployment rate remained flat in the September-November 2016 period

The ILO unemployment rate in the UK remained steady at 4.80% in the September-November 2016 period, meeting market expectations.

UK claimant count rate steadied in December

In December, the claimant count rate remained flat at a level of 2.30% in the UK, at par with market expectations.

Employment in the UK registered a drop in the September-November 2016 period

In the UK, employment recorded a drop of 9.00 K in the September-November 2016 period, less than market anticipations of a decline of 35.00 K. Employment had recorded a decline of 6.00 K in the August-October 2016 period.

UK average earnings including bonus rose more than expected in the September-November 2016 period

On an annual basis, the average earnings including bonus registered a rise of 2.80% in the September-November 2016 period, in the UK, compared to a revised rise of 2.60% in the August-October 2016 period. Market anticipation was for the average earnings including bonus to advance 2.60%.

UK house price balance recorded a surprise drop in December

In December, house price balance in the UK fell unexpectedly to a level of 24.00 %, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 30.00 %. In the prior month, house price balance had registered a revised level of 29.00 %.

Euro-zone construction output recorded a rise in November

On a MoM basis, the seasonally adjusted construction output advanced 0.40% in November, in the Euro-zone. Construction output had registered a revised similar rise in the previous month.

Euro-zone core CPI advanced as expected in December

In December, the final core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.90% in the Euro-zone, on a YoY basis, at par with market expectations. The core CPI had registered a rise of 0.80% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had also recorded a rise of 0.90%.

Euro-zone CPI rose as expected in December

The CPI rose 0.50% on a monthly basis in December, in the Euro-zone, at par with market expectations. In the previous month, the CPI had fallen 0.10%.

Euro-zone CPI advanced as expected in December

On a YoY basis, the final CPI rose 1.10% in the Euro-zone, in December, at par with market expectations. The preliminary figures had also recorded a rise of 1.10%. The CPI had advanced 0.60% in the prior month.

German CPI rose as expected in December

The final CPI in Germany climbed 1.70% in December on an annual basis, in line with market expectations. The preliminary figures had also recorded a rise of 1.70%. In the prior month, the CPI had risen 0.80%.

German HICP rose as expected in December

In December, the final harmonised consumer price index (HICP) climbed 1.00% on a MoM basis in Germany, in line with market expectations. The preliminary figures had also recorded a rise of 1.00%. The HICP had recorded a flat reading in the previous month.

German HICP rose as expected in December

In December, on an annual basis, the final HICP rose 1.70% in Germany, compared to a rise of 0.70% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had also indicated a rise of 1.70%. Market anticipation was for the HICP to advance 1.70%.

German CPI advanced as expected in December

On a monthly basis, the final CPI in Germany, rose 0.70% in December, at par with market expectations. The preliminary figures had also recorded an advance of 0.70%. In the prior month, the CPI had recorded a rise of 0.10%.

Fed’s Beige Book: US economy continued to expand at modest pace

According to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book report, the US economy continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions through the end of last year and firms expressed optimism about growth in 2017. Most districts indicated that wages increased modestly and prices pressures intensified during the period from late November 2016 through January 9th 2017. Further, manufacturers in most of the Fed’s 12 regions reported increased sales during the period.

Fed’s Yellen: Expect central bank to gradually hike rates over next 3 years

The US Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, in a speech at the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco, stated that she and other Fed policymakers expect to lift the key benchmark interest rate “a few times a year” through 2019, putting it near the long-term sustainable rate of 3.0%. She also acknowledged the fact that since the US economy is now close to full employment and that inflation is headed towards the central bank’s 2.0% goal, it makes sense to gradually lift interest rate. However, she also warned that rate hike expectations will change as the economic outlook changes.

US housing market index declined surprisingly in January

The housing market index fell unexpectedly to a level of 67.00 in January, in the US, compared to a revised reading of 69.00 in the prior month. Markets were expecting the housing market index to record a steady reading.

US CPI (ex-food & energy) advanced as expected in December

The CPI (ex-food & energy) in the US registered a rise of 0.20% on a monthly basis in December, in line with market expectations. In the previous month, the CPI (ex-food & energy) had registered a similar rise.

US CPI remained steady in December

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI in the US remained steady on a MoM basis, in December. CPI had fallen 0.20% in the prior month.

US manufacturing production rose less than expected in December

On a MoM basis, manufacturing production in the US rose 0.20% in December, compared to a drop of 0.10% in the prior month. Markets were expecting manufacturing production to advance 0.40%.

US CPI (ex-food & energy) rose as expected in December

The CPI (ex-food & energy) in the US advanced 2.20% on a YoY basis in December, compared to an advance of 2.10% in the prior month. Market expectation was for the CPI (ex-food & energy) to rise 2.20%.

US mortgage applications recorded a rise in the last week

Mortgage applications advanced 0.80% on a weekly basis, in the week ended 13 January 2017, in the US. Mortgage applications had advanced 5.80% in the previous week.

US CPI recorded a rise in December

In the US, the non-seasonally adjusted CPI registered a rise to 241.43 in December, lower than market expectations of a rise to a level of 241.51. The CPI had registered a level of 241.35 in the prior month.

US total net TIC flows climbed in November

Total net treasury international capital (TIC) flows climbed to $23.70 billion in the US, in November. In the previous month, total net TIC flows had recorded a revised reading of $20.60 billion.

US CPI advanced as expected in December

In the US, the CPI rose 2.10% on a YoY basis in December, at par with market expectations. In the prior month, the CPI had climbed 1.70%.

US core CPI climbed in December

In the US, the seasonally adjusted core CPI climbed to 249.93 in December, higher than market expectations of a rise to a level of 249.75. The core CPI had registered a reading of 249.36 in the previous month.

US CPI rose as expected in December

On a MoM basis in the US, the CPI advanced 0.30% in December, meeting market expectations. The CPI had advanced 0.20% in the prior month.

US Redbook index slid in the last week

On a MoM basis, the seasonally adjusted Redbook index in the US registered a drop of 3.40% in the week ended 13 January 2017. In the prior week, the Redbook index had registered a drop of 3.10%.

US capacity utilisation rose in December

Compared to a revised level of 74.90% in the previous month capacity utilisation in the US rose to a level of 75.50% in December. Markets were anticipating capacity utilisation to climb to a level of 75.40%.

US net TIC long term purchases rose in November

In November, net TIC long term purchases rose to a level of $30.80 billion in the US, compared to a revised reading of $9.30 billion in the previous month.

US industrial production rose more than expected in December

Industrial production advanced 0.80% on a monthly basis in the US, in December, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.60%. In the prior month, industrial production had fallen by a revised 0.70%.

US Redbook index registered a rise in the last week

The Redbook index in the US advanced 0.30% in the week ended 13 January 2017 on a YoY basis. In the previous week, the Redbook index had risen 0.90%.

BoC held interest rate, considered rate cut an option amid concern over Trump policies

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. The BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz warned that an interest rate cut remains in play as the country’s economy braces to take a “material” hit from a much more protectionist United States under Donald Trump. Additionally, the central bank released its Monetary Policy Report that sets out its latest forecasts for Canada’s economic growth. The bank predicts Canada’s economy to grow by 2.1% in each of 2017 and 2018 and that it would return to full capacity around mid-2018.

Foreign investors remained net buyers of Japanese bonds in the previous week

Foreign investors were net buyers of ¥517.00 billion worth of Japanese bonds in the week ended 13 January 2017, from being net buyers of a revised ¥624.10 billion worth of Japanese bonds in the previous week.

Foreign investors became net buyers of Japanese stocks in the previous week

Foreign investors remained net buyers of ¥246.50 billion worth of Japanese stocks in the week ended 13 January 2017, from being net buyers of ¥346.80 billion worth of Japanese stocks in the prior week.

Japanese investors became net buyers of foreign bonds in the previous week

Japanese investors remained net buyers of ¥332.10 billion worth of foreign bonds in the week ended 13 January 2017, as compared to being net buyers of a revised ¥207.90 billion worth of foreign bonds in the previous week.

Japanese Tokyo condominium sales recorded a rise in December

In December, on an annual basis, Tokyo condominium sales in Japan climbed 13.20%. Tokyo condominium sales had recorded a drop of 22.70% in the previous month.

Japanese investors became net buyers of foreign stocks in the previous week

Japanese investors remained net buyers of ¥49.80 billion worth of foreign stocks in the week ended 13 January 2017, as compared to being net buyers of ¥234.20 billion worth of foreign stocks in the previous week.

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