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Guardian Stockbrokers Key Economic News Tuesday 31 January 2017

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The key points from today’s economic news, brought to you by Guardian Stockbrokers.

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UK consumer confidence climbed surprisingly in January

The consumer confidence advanced unexpectedly to -5.00 in January, in the UK, higher than market expectations of a fall to -8.00. In the previous month, the consumer confidence had registered a reading of -7.00.

UK business barometer declined in January

The business barometer in the UK registered a drop to 29.00 in January, compared to a reading of 39.00 in the previous month.

Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator unexpectedly advanced in January

In January, the economic sentiment indicator rose unexpectedly to 108.20 in the Euro-zone, compared to a reading of 107.80 in the prior month. Markets were expecting the economic sentiment indicator to record a steady reading.

Euro-zone business climate indicator steadied in January

In January, the business climate indicator in the Euro-zone remained flat at 0.77, lower than market expectations of an advance to 0.80.

Euro-zone services sentiment indicator rose surprisingly in January

European Commission has reported that, in January, the services sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose unexpectedly to a level of 13.50, compared to market expectations of a drop to 12.70. In the previous month, the services sentiment indicator had recorded a revised reading of 13.10.

Euro-zone industrial confidence index registered a rise in January

The industrial confidence index in the Euro-zone registered a rise to 0.80 in January, higher than market expectations of a rise to 0.20. In the prior month, the industrial confidence index had registered a revised reading of 0.00.

Euro-zone consumer confidence index climbed in January

The final consumer confidence index in the Euro-zone recorded a rise to -4.70 in January, higher than market expectations of an advance to -4.90. The consumer confidence index had recorded a level of -5.10 in the prior month. The preliminary figures had recorded a rise to -4.90.

German HICP advanced less than expected in January

In January, on a YoY basis, the flash harmonised consumer price index (CPI) advanced 1.90% in Germany, less than market expectations for a rise of 2.00%. The HICP had risen 1.70% in the previous month.

German CPI declined more than expected in January

In January, the flash CPI dropped 0.60% on a MoM basis in Germany, compared to an advance of 0.70% in the prior month. Markets were anticipating the CPI to ease 0.50%.

German CPI advanced less than expected in January

On an annual basis, in Germany, the preliminary CPI climbed 1.90% in January, lower than market expectations for a rise of 2.00%. In the previous month, the CPI had climbed 1.70%.

German HICP falls more than expected in January

In January, the flash harmonised CPI slid 0.80% on a MoM basis in Germany, higher than market expectations for a fall of 0.70%. The HICP had registered a rise of 1.00% in the previous month.

Spanish GDP advanced as expected in 4Q 2016

The flash gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.00% on an annual basis in 4Q 2016, in Spain, compared to an advance of 3.20% in the previous quarter. Markets were expecting GDP to rise 3.00%.

Spanish GDP advanced as expected in 4Q 2016

In 4Q 2016, on a QoQ basis, the flash GDP in Spain advanced 0.70%, at par with market expectations. GDP had registered a similar rise in the previous quarter.

Swiss KOF economic barometer recorded a surprise drop in January

The KOF economic barometer fell unexpectedly to 101.70 in Switzerland, in January, compared to market expectations of an advance to 102.90. The KOF economic barometer had recorded a revised reading of 102.10 in the previous month.

US personal income advanced less than expected in December

Personal income climbed 0.30% on a monthly basis in December, in the US, lower than market expectations for a rise of 0.40%. Personal income had risen by a revised 0.10% in the previous month.

US Dallas Fed manufacturing business index advanced surprisingly in January

In January, the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index rose unexpectedly to 22.10 in the US, higher than market expectations of a fall to 15.00. The Dallas Fed manufacturing business index had registered a revised reading of 17.70 in the previous month.

US personal spending rose as expected in December

Personal spending in the US rose 0.50% in December on a monthly basis, compared to a rise of 0.20% in the prior month. Market expectation was for personal spending to rise 0.50%.

US pending home sales advanced more than expected in December

In the US, pending home sales advanced 1.60% on a MoM basis in December, higher than market expectations for a rise of 1.00%. In the prior month, pending home sales had recorded a drop of 2.50%.

US core personal consumption expenditure advanced as expected in December

In December, core personal consumption expenditure rose 0.10% in the US on a monthly basis, compared to an unchanged reading in the prior month. Market expectation was for core personal consumption expenditure to advance 0.10%.

US core personal consumption expenditure advanced as expected in December

On an annual basis, core personal consumption expenditure recorded a rise of 1.70% in the US, in December, at par with market expectations. Core personal consumption expenditure had registered a revised similar rise in the previous month.

US personal consumption expenditure deflator advanced as expected in December

In December, on a monthly basis, personal consumption expenditure deflator climbed 0.20% in the US, in line with market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure deflator had risen by a revised 0.10% in the previous month.

US personal consumption expenditure deflator rose less than expected in December

In December, on an annual basis, personal consumption expenditure deflator registered a rise of 1.60% in the US, lower than market expectations for an advance of 1.70%. In the prior month, personal consumption expenditure deflator had registered a rise of 1.40%.

US pending home sales fell more than expected in December

In the US, pending home sales recorded a drop of 2.00% on a YoY basis in December, compared to a revised rise of 1.40% in the prior month. Market expectation was for pending home sales to ease 0.30%.

BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged, raises GDP forecasts

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held the benchmark interest rate steady at -0.1%, as widely anticipated. The central bank also pledged to continue with its yield curve control programme for “as long as it is necessary” to achieve its inflation target of 2.0% in a stable manner. Further, the BoJ raised its GDP forecast to 1.4% for the current fiscal year, from its previous forecast, made in October, of 1.0% growth. For fiscal 2017, it raised its economic growth forecast to 1.5%, from 1.3%, and for fiscal 2018, it raised its forecast to 1.1%, from 0.9%. However, the central bank left its forecasts for core consumer price inflation unchanged.

Japanese job to applicant ratio recorded a rise in December

Job to applicant ratio in Japan rose to a level of 1.43 in December, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 1.42. Job to applicant ratio had registered a reading of 1.41 in the previous month.

Japanese unemployment rate remained unchanged in December

In Japan, unemployment rate remained steady at 3.10% in December. Market anticipation was for unemployment rate to record a flat reading.

Japanese household spending dropped less than expected in December

On a YoY basis, in December, household spending slid 0.30% in Japan, compared to a fall of 1.50% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for household spending to drop 0.90%.

Japanese industrial production advanced more than expected in December

On a MoM basis in December, the preliminary industrial production rose 0.50% in Japan, higher than market expectations for a rise of 0.30%. Industrial production had recorded a rise of 1.50% in the prior month.

Japanese industrial production advanced as expected in December

In December, the preliminary industrial production recorded a rise of 3.00% on a YoY basis in Japan, at par with market expectations. In the previous month, industrial production had registered a rise of 4.60%.

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