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Guardian Stockbrokers Key Economic News Friday 23 February 2018

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The key points from today’s economic news, brought to you by Guardian Stockbrokers.

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UK total business investment advanced less than expected in 4Q 2017

In the UK, the flash total business investment rose 2.10% in 4Q 2017 on a YoY basis, compared to a rise of 1.70% in the previous quarter. Markets were expecting total business investment to rise 2.40%.

UK government spending advanced more than expected in 4Q 2017

In the UK, the preliminary government spending recorded a rise of 0.60% in 4Q 2017 on a quarterly basis, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.30%. In the prior quarter, government spending had dropped 0.20%.

UK total business investment remained flat in 4Q 2017

In 4Q 2017, the flash total business investment in the UK remained steady on a QoQ basis, compared to an advance of 0.50% in the prior quarter. Markets were anticipating total business investment to advance 0.40%.

UK CBI distributive trade survey’s retail sales balance surprisingly declined in February

The CBI distributive trade survey’s retail sales balance in the UK registered an unexpected drop to a level of 8.00% in February compared to a level of 12.00% in the prior month. Markets were anticipating the CBI distributive trade survey’s retail sales balance to rise to a level of 14.00%.

UK index of services advanced more than expected in December

On a MoM basis in December, the index of services registered a rise of 0.60% in the UK, compared to a rise of 0.40% in the September-November 2017 period. Markets were anticipating the index of services to climb 0.50%.

UK GDP rose less than expected in 4Q 2017

On a YoY basis, the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 1.40% in the UK, in 4Q 2017, compared to a rise of 1.70% in the previous quarter. The preliminary figures had recorded a rise of 1.50%. Market anticipation was for GDP to advance 1.50%.

UK GDP advanced less than expected in 4Q 2017

The second estimate of GDP advanced 0.40% on a QoQ basis in 4Q 2017, in the UK, compared to a similar rise in the previous quarter. Markets were expecting GDP to climb 0.50%. The preliminary figures had recorded a rise of 0.50%.

UK imports rose more than expected in 4Q 2017

On a quarterly basis, the preliminary imports in the UK advanced 1.50% in 4Q 2017, higher than market expectations for a rise of 1.00%. In the prior quarter, imports had registered a rise of 0.90%.

UK gross fixed capital formation advanced more than expected in 4Q 2017

On a QoQ basis in the UK, the preliminary gross fixed capital formation registered a rise of 1.10% in 4Q 2017, higher than market expectations for a rise of 0.50%. Gross fixed capital formation had risen 0.30% in the prior quarter.

UK private consumption rose less than expected in 4Q 2017

The preliminary private consumption advanced 0.30% in the UK, on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2017, less than market expectations for an advance of 0.40%. In the previous quarter, private consumption had registered a rise of 0.50%.

UK exports unexpectedly fell in 4Q 2017

In 4Q 2017, the flash exports unexpectedly fell 0.20% in the UK on a QoQ basis, less than market expectations for an advance of 0.50%. In the previous quarter, exports had risen 0.80%.

UK index of services remained steady in December

On a monthly basis, the index of services in the UK remained steady in December, in line with market expectations. The index of services had recorded a rise of 0.40% in the previous month.

ECB minutes: Governing Council could revisit its monetary policy stance “early this year”

According to the minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) January meeting, some policymakers pushed for considering a change in the language pertaining to the monetary policy stance early this year. However, it was concluded that such an adjustment would be premature at this juncture, as inflation is still not moving decisively higher despite the robust pace of economic expansion. Further, officials broadly agreed that the perceived volatility in the Euro represents a source of uncertainty and need to be monitored.

German Ifo business expectations index fell in February

The Ifo business expectations index eased to 105.40 in February, in Germany, compared to a reading of 108.40 in the prior month. Markets were expecting the Ifo business expectations index to ease to a level of 107.90.

German Ifo business climate index dropped in February

The Ifo business climate index in Germany eased to 115.40 in February, compared to market expectations of a drop to a level of 117.00. The Ifo business climate index had recorded a reading of 117.60 in the prior month.

German Ifo current assessment index dropped in February

The Ifo current assessment index eased to 126.30 in Germany, in February, compared to a reading of 127.70 in the prior month. Markets were anticipating the Ifo current assessment index to fall to a level of 127.00.

French CPI (ex-tobacco) advanced less than expected in January

In France, the final consumer price index (CPI) (ex-tobacco) advanced 1.30% on a YoY basis in January, less than market expectations for a rise of 1.40%. In the prior month, the CPI (ex-tobacco) had registered a rise of 1.20%. The preliminary figures had recorded an advance of 1.40%.

French EU normalised CPI rose as expected in January

The final EU normalised CPI rose 1.50% in France on a YoY basis in January, at par with market expectations. In the prior month, EU normalised CPI had recorded a rise of 1.20%. The preliminary figures had also indicated an advance of 1.50%.

French CPI (ex-tobacco) dropped as expected in January

On a monthly basis, the final CPI (ex-tobacco) slid 0.10% in France, in January, compared to an advance of 0.30% in the previous month. Market expectation was for the CPI (ex-tobacco) to drop 0.10%. The preliminary figures had also recorded a fall of 0.10%.

French EU normalised CPI dropped as expected in January

Final EU normalised CPI in France recorded a drop of 0.10% in January on a monthly basis, compared to an advance of 0.40% in the previous month. Market expectation was for EU normalised CPI to drop 0.10%. The preliminary figures had also indicated a fall of 0.10%.

French industrial business climate index declined in February

The industrial business climate index in France registered a drop to 109.00 in February, compared to a revised level of 111.00 in the prior month. Markets were expecting the industrial business climate index to drop to 110.00.

French own-company production outlook dropped in February

Own-company production outlook registered a drop to 16.00 in France, in February, higher than market expectations of a drop to 15.00. Own-company production outlook had registered a revised level of 20.00 in the prior month.

French production outlook indicator declined in February

The production outlook indicator eased to 30.00 in France, in February, compared to a reading of 34.00 in the previous month. Markets were expecting the production outlook indicator to drop to 33.00.

Italian industrial orders rose in December

In Italy, the seasonally adjusted industrial orders rose 6.50% on a monthly basis, in December. Industrial orders had recorded a revised rise of 0.40% in the previous month.

Italian EU normalised CPI advanced more than expected in January

The final EU normalised CPI in Italy registered a rise of 1.20% in January on a YoY basis, higher than market expectations for an advance of 1.10%. The EU normalised CPI had recorded a rise of 1.00% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had recorded a rise of 1.10%.

Italian CPI climbed in January

On a MoM basis, the final CPI registered a rise of 0.30% in Italy, in January. The CPI had recorded a rise of 0.40% in the prior month. The preliminary figures had recorded an advance of 0.20%.

Italian EU normalised CPI dropped in January

On a MoM basis, the final EU normalised CPI slid 1.50% in Italy, in January. The EU normalised CPI had climbed 0.30% in the previous month. The preliminary figures had indicated a fall of 1.60%.

Italian industrial sales climbed in December

The seasonally adjusted industrial sales advanced 2.50% on a monthly basis, in December, in Italy. In the previous month, industrial sales had climbed by a revised 1.40%.

Italian industrial sales advanced in December

In December, on an annual basis, the non-seasonally adjusted industrial sales registered a rise of 7.20% in Italy. In the prior month, industrial sales had advanced 5.10%.

Italian CPI advanced in January

In Italy, the final CPI rose 0.90% on an annual basis, in January. In the prior month, the CPI had registered a similar rise. The preliminary figures had recorded an advance of 0.80%.

Italian industrial orders rose in December

The non-seasonally adjusted industrial orders in Italy climbed 6.90% in December on an annual basis. In the prior month, industrial orders had risen 8.90%.

Swiss industrial production rose in 4Q 2017

In Switzerland, industrial production rose 8.70% in 4Q 2017 on a YoY basis. In the prior quarter, industrial production had advanced by a revised 9.20%.

US leading indicator rose more than expected in January

On a monthly basis, leading indicator registered a rise of 1.00% in January, in the US, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.70%. In the previous month, leading indicator had registered a rise of 0.60%.

US continuing jobless claims fell in the last week

In the US, the seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims eased to 1875.00 K in the week ended 10 February 2018, compared to market expectations of a fall to a level of 1935.00 K. In the previous week, continuing jobless claims had registered a revised reading of 1948.00 K.

US initial jobless claims surprisingly dropped in the last week

In the week ended 17 February 2018, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US dropped unexpectedly to a level of 222.00 K, lower than market expectations of a rise to 230.00 K. Initial jobless claims had registered a revised reading of 229.00 K in the prior week.

US Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index climbed in February

In the US, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index climbed to 17.00 in February, compared to market expectations of an advance to a level of 18.00. In the prior month, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index had registered a reading of 16.00.

Canadian retail sales surprisingly fell in December

Retail sales in Canada registered an unexpected drop of 0.80% in December on a monthly basis, compared to a revised advance of 0.30% in the previous month. Markets were expecting retail sales to record a flat reading.

Canadian retail sales (ex-autos) unexpectedly dropped in December

In December, retail sales (ex-autos) unexpectedly eased 1.80% on a monthly basis in Canada, lower than market expectations for an advance of 0.30%. Retail sales (ex-autos) had registered a revised rise of 1.70% in the previous month.

Japanese corporate service price index rose less than expected in January

The corporate service price index in Japan rose 0.70% in January on an annual basis, less than market expectations for a rise of 0.80%. The corporate service price index had registered a rise of 0.80% in the previous month.

Japanese National CPI ex-fresh food advanced more than expected in January

National CPI (CPI) ex-fresh food rose 0.90% in Japan on an annual basis in January, compared to a similar rise in the previous month. Market expectation was for National CPI ex-fresh food to climb 0.80%.

Japanese national CPI advanced more than expected in January

In January, on an annual basis, the CPI in Japan rose 1.40%, higher than market expectations for a rise of 1.30%. The CPI had recorded a rise of 1.00% in the previous month.

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