JRoon71
3 hours ago
Denisk, if something does not change in terms of revenue trajectory, then no, I don't think we can get to $5B. If we continue the "slow and steady" revenue growth, there won't be enough life left in the patents for a BP to extract that much value out of it.
Keep in mind, though the EU patents may extend to 2039, that is not guaranteed. They could expire in 2032 and get successfully challenged.
This is where I still believe the new formulation comes in, but is only speculation at this point.
But, as always, we can only go by what Amarin says and does. Which, as of right now is just GIA with the current formulation. And if that continues, and a buyer does not assign value to anything else (new formulation, potential new indication, etc), then $5B is only a pipe dream, and $2B seems more likely.
couldbebetter
3 hours ago
Seve333, At this point a share buyback will not be enough
to get AMRN into compliance, unless it involves a reverse
stock split first. Keep in mind the number of shares that can
be bought back each day are limited and it may take a number
of months to complete, assuming it is ever completed at all.
Seems as if management will do nothing to increase the share
price so it could be presumed that Denner wants the share price
to remain low for now. I think that only significant insider buying, most
especially by Sarissa, would be our first clue that management is ready
to ramp up the share price. Our best hope is that the company does
something with a "new & improved" version of EPA that would be patent
protected...and then sell AMRN to BP.
JRoon71
4 hours ago
I agree. JT (and the gang) made a brilliant move doing that raise. Otherwise, they would have had no choice but to take whatever BO offer came down the pike at the time. That's probably why they did it, so they wouldn't be backed into a corner.
At the beginning of 2018, they had $75M in cash, almost no inventory, and $100M in debt. Without the raise, they were dangerously close to running out of money, and likely could not have done a big sales launch.
Of course, then they made the mistake of getting greedy. But that's all ancient history now.
lizzy241
6 hours ago
aka, Actually, JT saved this company from going down the toilet. It's like yesterday when Jefferies et al. announced the secondary offering priced at $18ish. The stock dropped immediately, but without that raise, the company would not exist except for a bunch of patents. We can't cry over spilled milk, but that's when the company should have put a for-sale sign on the door.
Where's Marsan Monday??? LOL
JRoon71
7 hours ago
Analysts won't take cash-on-hand into account as far as projecting future EPS, etc., because it doesn't matter.
The only reason they would care about cash on hand is if (1) there was question about them having sufficient cash to fund operations, or (2) they ARE looking at a buyout, and what that cash is worth in a buyout (basically just dollar for dollar). In larger amounts, cash would be useful if they are looking to make an acquisition, but that's not in the cards for Amarin.
I think most people on here place too much value on Amarin's Cash and Inventory and lack of debt. Yes, it's helpful because it means they aren't going to go bankrupt, and gives them some operational flexibility. But it's not really helpful in terms of profitability in a pure sense. Yes, lack of debt saves on interest expense and cashflow. But again, it does not help with profit margins, per se. Which is the only thing analysts seem to really care about with Amarin right now.
Here's the other dynamic at play...Amarin is a penny stock. There's very little analyst coverage of Amarin these days. And the analysts that ARE covering Amarin now (versus 5 years ago) are mostly young, inexperienced analysts. I have noticed over the past few years that most of the analysts asking questions now are younger and less experienced (and you can tell by their questions). They aren't looking at buyouts. Their just analyzing Amarin's financial results and plugging them into their models.
Until something meaningful starts happening with Amarin (operationally), there isn't going to be all that much interest in Amarin from an analyst perspective.
JRoon71
10 hours ago
I think each country has a term that the approval is for. In Italy, I thought I saw it was 2 years (I might be thinking of a different country).
Presumably, after those 2 years are up, they could re-negotiate for a less-restrictive use case.
It seems that in order to do that, they need some real-world data to prove their case. Or at minimum, some new data that did not exist at the time of the original application.
But I suppose each country is different.
JRoon71
10 hours ago
TCI, I think part of the issue is that financial analysts view Amarin as a "going concern". Amarin has stated over and over again that they are going it alone, with very little indication that they are trying to get bought.
So...analysts only look at what Amarin is producing, or what they think they will be producing in the near term, to place a value on it. What any future "potential" means to a buyer is irrelevant to their analysis.
They say "OK, what is the forward-looking revenue...what is the profit margin...what multiple do we place on that...".
It's not REALLY the job of a financial analyst to *speculate* on whether Amarin will get bought or not, especially when Amarin has said very, very little about their desire to be bought.
This is why the stock was bid way up back in 2019. Because everyone assumed Amarin would get bought out at a big multiple because of its "potential", just like most other pre-commercial (or very early stage, as was the case of Amarin with only the MARINE indication up to that point) biotech companies.
And since Amarin doesn't give any forward guidance at all, analysts have very little to go on. So they can only look at what revenue streams are currently in place, and what revenue they see in the next year or two. Outside of Canada, UK, and Spain, we have ZERO revenue (or near-zero), even among the countries that have been approved for years. So what are analysts suppose to glean from that?
Now, if Denner and the board want to flip the script, and start talking about the buyout potential, what the future potential is of Vascepa, what their ultimate plan is, then maybe it will change the perception of the company. But until then, analysts are just going to look at it as a dying company.
FWIW, I think Denner is being VERY deliberate about this. He is not stupid. There's a reason that the company does almost no PR (outside of what is required by the SEC).
When we start hearing a lot from Amarin, the board, Denner, etc., then you know the script is being flipped and they are ready to run.
TCI1
11 hours ago
The fact Vascepa has obtained reimbursement in this number of countries, albeit with some granting a narrower target population than others, and the market cap is where itโs at is still pretty baffling. Yes, the market wants to see sales, but the fact that no value, even negative value is attributed to a reimbursement position that has the potential for significant cash flow in the hands of BO, is strange to say the least.
JRoon71
12 hours ago
Agreed Skipper. Italy revenue is going to be non-existent for several years. And we have a dozen or so other countries already reimbursing with zero revenue to show for it.
However....one strategy they may be employing is to go "all-in" on the few bigger countries (UK, Spain, Italy), to show what Vazkepa can do. It probably makes little sense to have any staff in Sweden, Finland, Scotland, Netherlands, etc. where the target populations are in the 10's of thousands or low 100's of thousands.
But as with most things Amarin, they are not real clear on their strategy, other than just trying to get as many reimbursements in place as possible for a buyout. Because if they are NOT targeting a buyout soon, then I'm not sure why they are not selling any product in all these markets where they are already approved (and some have been approved for multiple years).
FlyFishingStocks
13 hours ago
Playing the Devil's Advocate... 1. Opinions, faith, hope, belief, etc., gets demolished by Wall Street AI programmed trading. 2. What was the price action response from the Italy news? The PPS couldn't even take out the high of the previous day's candle on heavy volume = BIG EFFORT, NO REWARD. This is one of the most effective setups to short because that price action is occurring within the apex of a Descending Triangle, beneath a down trendline (very bearish).
Emotional doubling down on opinion is usually tantamount to "catching a falling knife," and only adds fuel to the predominant trade: SHORT!