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Amarin Corp PLC

Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN)

0.4684
-0.0038
(-0.80%)
Closed December 17 3:00PM
0.48
0.0116
(2.48%)
After Hours: 6:58PM

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AMRN News

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Number sleven Number sleven 2 hours ago
Jasbg, I agree that the valuation of Amarin is absurd. Take a look at the reimbursement restrictions in Italy. Obese people with Tg over 200 and LDL-C under 70. Not sure if that goes in the win column.
Sleven,
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Number sleven Number sleven 2 hours ago
JRoon, Please provide a link verifying what you are saying.
Sleven,
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JRoon71 JRoon71 2 hours ago
That will be opposed, and appealed.

Also the 2033 patent is schedule for appeal hearing in 2025.

Not saying we'll lose. But it's another point of risk for a buyer.
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Jasbg Jasbg 2 hours ago
We have seen this sort of reaction 'to good news' - so many times 'before' - since the fatal blow in Nevada court marts 2020.
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Italian reimbursement is 'best news' since UK came through - and still the market 'again' seems to not recognize it as a serious improvement.
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Amarin valuation 'still' - more than 100 mill dollars below cash holding - where is the market logic in that ?
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Denisk Denisk 2 hours ago
Thanks
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Number sleven Number sleven 2 hours ago
JRoon,
https://www.biospace.com/amarin-provides-update-on-vazkepa-icosapent-ethyl-intellectual-property-portfolio-in-europecompany-s-ip-protection-for-vazkepa-in-europe-now-extended-into-2039
What are you talking about?
Sleven,
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JRoon71 JRoon71 3 hours ago
Denisk, if something does not change in terms of revenue trajectory, then no, I don't think we can get to $5B. If we continue the "slow and steady" revenue growth, there won't be enough life left in the patents for a BP to extract that much value out of it.

Keep in mind, though the EU patents may extend to 2039, that is not guaranteed. They could expire in 2032 and get successfully challenged.

This is where I still believe the new formulation comes in, but is only speculation at this point.


But, as always, we can only go by what Amarin says and does. Which, as of right now is just GIA with the current formulation. And if that continues, and a buyer does not assign value to anything else (new formulation, potential new indication, etc), then $5B is only a pipe dream, and $2B seems more likely.


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Denisk Denisk 3 hours ago
Looking at the financial report for year ending 2017, AMRN had approximately 271 million shares outstanding
and if I am not mistaken in Feb 2018, the stock was trading at around $18 price. This means the market value
of AMRN was around $4.875 billion. Looking at today's outstanding shares of 411 million shares, do you think
AMRN could eventually (assuming sales increase 10 fold) in the future ask for a BO price of $11 to $12 a
share ( equivalent to $4.93 billion)?
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couldbebetter couldbebetter 3 hours ago
Seve333, At this point a share buyback will not be enough
to get AMRN into compliance, unless it involves a reverse
stock split first. Keep in mind the number of shares that can
be bought back each day are limited and it may take a number
of months to complete, assuming it is ever completed at all.
Seems as if management will do nothing to increase the share
price so it could be presumed that Denner wants the share price
to remain low for now. I think that only significant insider buying, most
especially by Sarissa, would be our first clue that management is ready
to ramp up the share price. Our best hope is that the company does
something with a "new & improved" version of EPA that would be patent
protected...and then sell AMRN to BP.
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Number sleven Number sleven 4 hours ago
Captain, Thanks for the update. Market is steadily improving.
Sleven,
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CaptBeer CaptBeer 4 hours ago
VAZKEPA® gaining ground.

The UK NHS English Prescribing Data is in for October 2024. Hereโ€™s a summary of prescription doses (Capsules/Tablets) for (4) non-statin Lipid Lowering Agents. VAZKEPA® came in at 301,916 doses a 13% increase over the previous month (September 263,070). In comparison OMACOR mixed EPA/DHA capsule dispensed 419,603 doses (up 6%).

VAZKEPA® captured 42% of the total OMG-3 market in October vs. 40% in September while OMACOR continues to erode from 60% in September to 58% in October.

Good Luck to us all!

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JRoon71 JRoon71 4 hours ago
I agree. JT (and the gang) made a brilliant move doing that raise. Otherwise, they would have had no choice but to take whatever BO offer came down the pike at the time. That's probably why they did it, so they wouldn't be backed into a corner.

At the beginning of 2018, they had $75M in cash, almost no inventory, and $100M in debt. Without the raise, they were dangerously close to running out of money, and likely could not have done a big sales launch.

Of course, then they made the mistake of getting greedy. But that's all ancient history now.
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Number sleven Number sleven 4 hours ago
JRoon, The court of appeals rendered a decision. Part of that decision was a remand back to the district court. Six remaining issues that require litigation. Supreme Court declined to hear the case. I don't think any of the remaining issues have a direct bearing on Amarin v hikma. Some of the board lawyers might have a different opinion.
Sleven,
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JRoon71 JRoon71 4 hours ago
Not sure. I thought several months ago someone had posted that a final decision had been rendered.

why did you think that the GSK v Teva suit had reached a conclusion?
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Number sleven Number sleven 5 hours ago
JRoon, why did you think that the GSK v Teva suit had reached a conclusion? At this point, including interest, Teva is on the hook for about $400million.
Sleven,
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Birdbrain Ideas Birdbrain Ideas 6 hours ago
I think Amarin did have a "For Sale" sign on the door then, except nobody was willing to pay the price Amarin was asking until the litigation was cleared.
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lizzy241 lizzy241 6 hours ago
aka, Actually, JT saved this company from going down the toilet. It's like yesterday when Jefferies et al. announced the secondary offering priced at $18ish. The stock dropped immediately, but without that raise, the company would not exist except for a bunch of patents. We can't cry over spilled milk, but that's when the company should have put a for-sale sign on the door.
Where's Marsan Monday??? LOL
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seve333 seve333 6 hours ago
Is it possible Denner wants the share price low until he can complete buyback of shares?

There is no way of knowing anything because he does not communicate a thing. That is a big reason there is zero interest in this stock anymore. Nobody knows their vision or plan. But I certainly think without doing a BB the stock will have a very hard time getting in compliance by May.
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JRoon71 JRoon71 7 hours ago
Analysts won't take cash-on-hand into account as far as projecting future EPS, etc., because it doesn't matter.

The only reason they would care about cash on hand is if (1) there was question about them having sufficient cash to fund operations, or (2) they ARE looking at a buyout, and what that cash is worth in a buyout (basically just dollar for dollar). In larger amounts, cash would be useful if they are looking to make an acquisition, but that's not in the cards for Amarin.

I think most people on here place too much value on Amarin's Cash and Inventory and lack of debt. Yes, it's helpful because it means they aren't going to go bankrupt, and gives them some operational flexibility. But it's not really helpful in terms of profitability in a pure sense. Yes, lack of debt saves on interest expense and cashflow. But again, it does not help with profit margins, per se. Which is the only thing analysts seem to really care about with Amarin right now.

Here's the other dynamic at play...Amarin is a penny stock. There's very little analyst coverage of Amarin these days. And the analysts that ARE covering Amarin now (versus 5 years ago) are mostly young, inexperienced analysts. I have noticed over the past few years that most of the analysts asking questions now are younger and less experienced (and you can tell by their questions). They aren't looking at buyouts. Their just analyzing Amarin's financial results and plugging them into their models.

Until something meaningful starts happening with Amarin (operationally), there isn't going to be all that much interest in Amarin from an analyst perspective.
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the_kube the_kube 7 hours ago
Do analysts take into account the AMRNโ€™s cash on hand?

Is it possible Denner wants the share price low until he can complete buyback of shares?

A $50 million share buyback completed at around current share price would lower the number of shares by about 25%. A 25% increase in valuation is not meaningful at current prices. But, if and when AMRN goes up for sale, could this add another $1.00 per share to the sale price?
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JRoon71 JRoon71 8 hours ago
Dang, 10 years in, and this thing STILL isn't settled. I thought this was done.

This is why I am still of the belief that we won't see any relief through legal avenues any time soon. Our legal system just takes so long to get anything accomplished.
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mrmainstreet mrmainstreet 8 hours ago
For the love of all that is holy and sacred please stop posting about Du and other ancient history.
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seve333 seve333 8 hours ago
I really doubt Denner wants to sit around another 3 or 4 fours waiting for revenue in these countries. I am guessing he wants France and then will try and sell this for like 4 a share. He wants more I am sure but that's probably about all it will be worth.
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Number sleven Number sleven 8 hours ago
https://www.casemine.com/judgement/us/675e5b61a7e16531f16874ff
Sleven,
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ziploc_1 ziploc_1 9 hours ago
abka... The young Judge Du, recently appointed to the ninth circuit by senator Harry Reid, killed Amarin as a gift to the generics, thinking that her decision might enhance her chances for an eventual judicial promotion.
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JRoon71 JRoon71 10 hours ago
No question he will, it's just a matter of magnitude, and what's in it for shareholders.
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abka abka 10 hours ago
John Thero is the killer of this company. Not KM not Denner. JT is the killer.
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TCI1 TCI1 10 hours ago
All fair points. Letโ€™s hope Denner is able to turn the ship around.
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JRoon71 JRoon71 10 hours ago
I think each country has a term that the approval is for. In Italy, I thought I saw it was 2 years (I might be thinking of a different country).

Presumably, after those 2 years are up, they could re-negotiate for a less-restrictive use case.

It seems that in order to do that, they need some real-world data to prove their case. Or at minimum, some new data that did not exist at the time of the original application.

But I suppose each country is different.
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ProLiberty ProLiberty 10 hours ago
In the countries with too restrictive reimbursement approvals, can periodic review be made for wider use? Would seem within the competency of a future BP owner if so.
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JRoon71 JRoon71 10 hours ago
TCI, I think part of the issue is that financial analysts view Amarin as a "going concern". Amarin has stated over and over again that they are going it alone, with very little indication that they are trying to get bought.

So...analysts only look at what Amarin is producing, or what they think they will be producing in the near term, to place a value on it. What any future "potential" means to a buyer is irrelevant to their analysis.

They say "OK, what is the forward-looking revenue...what is the profit margin...what multiple do we place on that...".
It's not REALLY the job of a financial analyst to *speculate* on whether Amarin will get bought or not, especially when Amarin has said very, very little about their desire to be bought.

This is why the stock was bid way up back in 2019. Because everyone assumed Amarin would get bought out at a big multiple because of its "potential", just like most other pre-commercial (or very early stage, as was the case of Amarin with only the MARINE indication up to that point) biotech companies.

And since Amarin doesn't give any forward guidance at all, analysts have very little to go on. So they can only look at what revenue streams are currently in place, and what revenue they see in the next year or two. Outside of Canada, UK, and Spain, we have ZERO revenue (or near-zero), even among the countries that have been approved for years. So what are analysts suppose to glean from that?

Now, if Denner and the board want to flip the script, and start talking about the buyout potential, what the future potential is of Vascepa, what their ultimate plan is, then maybe it will change the perception of the company. But until then, analysts are just going to look at it as a dying company.

FWIW, I think Denner is being VERY deliberate about this. He is not stupid. There's a reason that the company does almost no PR (outside of what is required by the SEC).

When we start hearing a lot from Amarin, the board, Denner, etc., then you know the script is being flipped and they are ready to run.
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Whalatane Whalatane 10 hours ago
Re one notable example for longer term chronic management are the statinsโ€ฆbut there the buzz was so great you could not not pay for it.[/quote
I think there have been up to 20 different randomized placebo controlled trials with Statins ...at least 13 major ones ...all showing efficacy in different populations to reduce risk of a CV event ......thats why the " buzz " is so great .
In addition Statins are generic and health dept funding is under pressure in the EU
JMO
Kiwi
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TCI1 TCI1 11 hours ago
The fact Vascepa has obtained reimbursement in this number of countries, albeit with some granting a narrower target population than others, and the market cap is where itโ€™s at is still pretty baffling. Yes, the market wants to see sales, but the fact that no value, even negative value is attributed to a reimbursement position that has the potential for significant cash flow in the hands of BO, is strange to say the least.
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Chromosome Chromosome 11 hours ago
I always thought single payer systems like Europe care more about longer term financial prudence but am thinking in Europe governments change almost as quickly as people change insurance in the USโ€ฆ one notable example for longer term chronic management are the statinsโ€ฆbut there the buzz was so great you could not not pay for it.
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ralphey ralphey 11 hours ago
AMRN voted #1 stock for providing buying opportunities and capital gains deductions! Its booming ! ANother buying opportunity !!
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rosemountbomber rosemountbomber 11 hours ago
Are we back to the old days of the 3 day rule?
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DMC8 DMC8 11 hours ago
Own up, anyone gotten the cheap 126.8k shares @ 42.77cts during Pre-Market from this short?
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JRoon71 JRoon71 12 hours ago
Agreed Skipper. Italy revenue is going to be non-existent for several years. And we have a dozen or so other countries already reimbursing with zero revenue to show for it.

However....one strategy they may be employing is to go "all-in" on the few bigger countries (UK, Spain, Italy), to show what Vazkepa can do. It probably makes little sense to have any staff in Sweden, Finland, Scotland, Netherlands, etc. where the target populations are in the 10's of thousands or low 100's of thousands.

But as with most things Amarin, they are not real clear on their strategy, other than just trying to get as many reimbursements in place as possible for a buyout. Because if they are NOT targeting a buyout soon, then I'm not sure why they are not selling any product in all these markets where they are already approved (and some have been approved for multiple years).
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Skipperdog11 Skipperdog11 12 hours ago
P-dude, can't agree with you more! The real business question is- how in the hell can anyone justify the local buildout of the country with dozens of specialists carrying a bag of one drug with such a restrictive label? Amarin the company simply cannot afford this strategy. They really need to run a skeleton crew (say 3 people) while shopping the company aggressively to big pharma. The idea of developing various regions to enhance value has run its course.
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DMC8 DMC8 12 hours ago
Can we start the buyback now Berg/Denner?
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ziploc_1 ziploc_1 12 hours ago
If the PBM's could be eliminated, an AG of Vascepa would have more of a chance of success...since generics now negotiate exclusives with generics.

An AG of Vascepa could be priced lower than a patented LrEtEPA product, which needs to be taken twice a day rather than 4 times a day.
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CaptBeer CaptBeer 12 hours ago
VAZKEPA reduces CVE's. Now reimbursable in 14 countries! It's a START!

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rydad21 rydad21 12 hours ago
Accidental repost.
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rydad21 rydad21 12 hours ago
For those that don't understand PBM's, here is a short tutorial. You can explore as deeply as you want and this is just a starting point. I read one article that recently came out on Cuban's drug company and they gave an example of a drug that cost $9500 through the PBM process that Cuban's company was dispensing at $47. Extreme example, but you get the point.

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JRoon71 JRoon71 13 hours ago
I guess the big question is - are they going to need to run trials on it. Because if they are, it seems that they need to get working on that.

Otherwise, maybe it's just a carrot that they will dangle for a BP? As in, maybe this is the BP's meal ticket back into the U.S. market.

But I still firmly believe that this formulation has a future. And I think that there is some interplay between this and the authorized generic that they keep bringing up.
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DMC8 DMC8 13 hours ago
In case you missed this.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4386931-trump-targets-pbms-comments-mar-a-lago
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ziploc_1 ziploc_1 13 hours ago
DMC...OK...So Amarin has this LrEt EPA patent...Now inquiring minds want to know: What use is Amarin going to put this to??
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FlyFishingStocks FlyFishingStocks 13 hours ago
Playing the Devil's Advocate... 1. Opinions, faith, hope, belief, etc., gets demolished by Wall Street AI programmed trading. 2. What was the price action response from the Italy news? The PPS couldn't even take out the high of the previous day's candle on heavy volume = BIG EFFORT, NO REWARD. This is one of the most effective setups to short because that price action is occurring within the apex of a Descending Triangle, beneath a down trendline (very bearish).

Emotional doubling down on opinion is usually tantamount to "catching a falling knife," and only adds fuel to the predominant trade: SHORT!
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DMC8 DMC8 20 hours ago
LR-ETEPA Patent assignment 064999/0670
https://assignment.uspto.gov/patent/index.html#/patent/search/resultAssignment?searchInput=20240165066&id=64999-670
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DMC8 DMC8 20 hours ago
USPTO: LR-ETEPA publication
US20240165066A1
May 23, 2024
https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/pdfRedirectDownload/20240165066?requestToken=eyJzdWIiOiJlZjZkZjFhMy04MWRhLTQ1MmEtOTljMy0zNTJjN2NhYjc4MTQiLCJ2ZXIiOiI0NGE4N2YyOS1kN2IxLTQ4YmUtOWQxYi02MWVkNGRjZTg4NjMiLCJleHAiOjB9
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