Dallas-Cowboys
3 hours ago
This is a little old but a good read for a tough week
Fortune: “Nvidia will produce such a massive ‘cash gusher’ that it will have to buy back more stock because all that money has nowhere else to go”, analyst says AI chip leader (nvda) will have an embarrassment of riches in the coming years, and shareholders will be rewarded, a tech analysts predicted. Managing director and head of technology research at Melius Research says Nvidia has mastered a "full stack" approach with its hardware and software, giving it a key advantage in AI. "What they did is they built a computing language and an ecosystem that allows you to monetize AI," he said. he has a price target of $160 on Nvidia stock. Despite selling that began earlier this month, shares have soared 150% so far this year after more than tripling in 2023. Another big advantage Nvidia has over rivals is its annual cadence of innovating new products. That means developers and customers will know where Nvidia is headed and can budget for upgrades accordingly. Given Nvidia's edge in the booming AI space, Melius Research projects the company will generate $270 billion in cash over the next three years, potentially setting the stage for huge shareholder returns. Management may not be eager to tout the possibility of stock buybacks as those are often associated with older companies, Reitzes said. But in his view, it's obvious. "No one's talking about it, and when you do the model we do, it's a cash gusher," he said. "And there's nothing they can do.
rolvram
8 hours ago
‘Load Up Ahead of Earnings,’ Says Top Analyst About Nvidia Stock
Marty Shtrubel
Marty Shtrubel
Jul 24, 2024, 06:42 PM
It’s that time of day again, and by that, we mean it’s time to give Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) a new, higher price target. As a leading company in the semiconductor and AI space, Nvidia is closely monitored by analysts who frequently revise their models based on the company’s stock performance and growth potential.
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The latest to join the fray is Piper Sandler’s Harsh Kumar, an analyst sitting in 15th position amongst the thousands of Street stock experts. Kumar raised his price target on NVDA from $120 to $140, suggesting shares will gain another 22% over the coming months. Unsurprisingly, his Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating on NVDA remains intact. (To watch Kumar’s track record, click here)
The latest endorsement comes ahead of the chip giant’s fiscal second quarter readout (July quarter), slated for August 28, with Kumar believing the scene is set for a robust showing.
“Overall,” says the 5-star analyst, “our bull case sees NVDA nicely beating July 24 quarter estimates both on the top and bottom line as well as guidance above the street for the Oct 24 quarter. On average, we expect the beat cadence for revenues of ~$2B to continue for both the reported and guided quarters.”
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The “strong business trends” that have been behind the huge gains are set to continue with the addition of the official launch of the Blackwell architecture in the October quarter. Due to the fact demand from CSPs, enterprises, and sovereign continues to be robust, the new architecture’s launch has the potential to “spur a new leg of growth.” “As such,” Kumar goes on to say, “demand is expected to be well ahead of supply going forward once the B100/ B200 launches.”
With the chip giant experiencing such strong demand, the company’s primary focus seems to be on “supply procurement.” Importantly, Kumar notes Nvidia is witnessing not only robust bookings for its new Blackwell launch, but also for current products like the H100 and the H200. “In our view,” Kumar summed up, “NVDA continues to have demand visibility that extends into the middle of CY2025 at a minimum.”
Most on the Street seem just as confident. The analyst consensus rates the stock a Strong Buy, based on a mix of 37 Buys against 4 Holds. Meanwhile, the $142.67 average target is slightly higher than Kumar’s objective and set to deliver returns of ~25% over the coming months.
DiscoverGold
20 hours ago
Nvidia Breaks the 50-day SMA: Is This a Threat or an Opportunity?
By: Arthur Hill | July 26, 2024
• The long-term trend provides perspective and sets the trading bias.
• The bias is bullish during long-term uptrends.
• Breaks below the 50-day SMA are viewed a opportunities, not threats.
After a big run this year, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 15% from its high and broke its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). On the face of it, a break below this "key" moving average seems like a short-term bearish signal. Such a view, however, would ignore the long-term trend, which is the dominant force at work.
The first job is to define the long-term trend because this provides perspective and sets the trading bias. Nvidia is clearly in a long-term uptrend because it is well above the rising 200-day SMA, and recorded a new high a month ago. During a long-term uptrend, declines are viewed as corrections that provide opportunities. Therefore, the break below the 50-day SMA is more of an opportunity than a threat. Our reports and videos this week suggest the same for QQQ.
Corrections come in all shapes and sizes. We could get a short pullback, an extended pullback, or a trading range. Nobody really knows. The decline into April broke the 50-day SMA, but this correction was short-lived as the stock broke out in early May. The decline in September-October 2023 was longer because NVDA broke the 50-day SMA twice. These breaks did not lead to a bigger trend reversal.
Looking at the current break, the decline over the last four weeks looks like a normal correction after a big advance. NVDA was up 78% from mid-April to mid-June. A correction that retraces a portion of this advance is perfectly normal. The long-term trend is still up, and I view this correction as an opportunity, not a threat.
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Jetmek_03052
24 hours ago
Really.
the overall stock market is putting in a MAJOR TOP
The overall stock market has actually decreased from highs seen in early July.
Nasdaq high 20,140, down to 18,390. A decrease of 1,750 (8.5%)
S&P high of 5,669, down to 5,464. A decrease of 205 (about 3.6%)
Dow high of 41,315, down to 40,650. A decrease of 695 (almost 2%)
DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Nvidia's Stock Correction Will Lead to Outsized Gains in the Second Half of 2024
By: The Motley Fool | July 24, 2024
Beginning in January 2023, it seemed like Nvidia (NVDA -0.25%) stock went straight up for almost 18 months. There was good reason for that as investors piled in to the company that has become the face of a dramatically increasing artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
But no stock goes straight up forever, and valuation still matters. A correction in the stock was inevitable and finally occurred over the last month. Nvidia shares recently traded as much as 13% below the closing record high set on June 18. And buying quality stocks in periods of corrections or bear markets is one of the best ways to generate market-beating returns.
Invest when others are fearful
The recent pullback isn't the first time Nvidia investors dragged the stock lower by taking profits. In the second half of 2022, Nvidia's sales plunged nearly 20% compared to the prior-year period as chip demand from gaming and cryptocurrency-mining users crashed. That helped lead to a sell-off that knocked Nvidia shares down by more than half in 2022.
Those sellers missed out on what would become an epic stock price run with gains of nearly 750% since the start of 2023. That's because Nvidia kept innovating. Sales to its data-center customers exploded as generative AI gained prominence, and the company's gaming sales rebounded.
A more recent hiccup for Nvidia's sales has been government restrictions applied to advanced chips being sold to China. But recent reports say that Nvidia is getting ready to offer a new chip for sale to China that conforms to current trading rules.
A new AI chip for the Chinese market that adheres to U.S. export controls would be just one more catalyst for Nvidia's sales, and potentially share price, to rise. That's why it's a good idea to take advantage of the recent price drop. As Warren Buffett famously said of his investing philosophy, "we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." The recent correction shows that some Nvidia investors are fearful right now.
Reasons to be greedy with Nvidia
In addition to the anticipated rebound in Nvidia's China sales, its domestic data center sales should also provide future catalysts. The main driver to boost sales will be its next-generation Blackwell platform for the growing data center market. Nvidia has said it will introduce new chips on an annual cadence. But the newest technology chips should actually be incremental income, rather than a replacement of existing income.
One bit of evidence was the recent second-quarter report from Taiwan Semiconductor. The manufacturer of high-end AI chips for Nvidia said that demand remains strong and supply continues to be tight. That bodes well for continued growth in Nvidia's sales.
Nvidia's business plan is also helping to increase demand. The company has already built a dominant position supplying chips to train AI models. It has also begun an annual cadence of new, higher-perfomance offerings beginning with next year's Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI server-infrastructure systems. Its biggest customers will likely continue to upgrade with Nvidia's newest products.
But don't forget that smaller companies still struggling to obtain Nvidia's existing H100 GPUs remain in the queue. KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh summed it up well in a recent research note, stating: "Despite the impending launch of Blackwell in 2H24 [second half of 2024], we are not seeing any signs of a demand pause as demand for H100 remains robust, as we continue to see rush orders."
What to watch for next
Nvidia is expected to update investors with its next quarterly financial report on Aug. 28. If it confirms the continued strong-demand picture by outpacing expectations yet again, it would likely boost the share price.
But Nvidia's stellar results have continued to build investor expectations, some of which are already priced into the stock. Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is hovering above an already high five-year average. That high valuation will likely continue if the company's sales continue to soar. But investors should be prepared for another correction if the company reports any stumbles to that growth.
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