By Kate Gibson
The U.S. stock market's celebration of a renewed burst of
M&A activity proved short-lived Tuesday, even as some
speculated that additional suitors will top Xerox Corp.'s $6.4
billion bid for Affiliated Computer Services Inc.
"The good news is there is ongoing consolidation in computer
services, and you can make an argument this opens the door for
another bidder at a higher valuation," said Art Hogan, chief market
strategist at Jefferies & Co. "That's good for the broader
market."
That said, the nearly ended quarter remains on track to be one
of the worst ever for M&A activity, according to Marc Pado,
U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
"However, investors are focusing on the trend, and it is safe to
say that we are looking at M&A activity that seems to have
turned the corner and is about to turn higher," he said.
Breaking a three-day losing streak, the major indexes rallied on
Monday on word of Xerox's proposed purchase, along with another
large deal: Abbott Laboratories' (ABT) offer for Brussels-based
Solvay's pharmaceutical unit. .
"With yesterday's roaring stock-market rally on the heels of the
deal announcements, the action begs the question, is M&A
activity a precursor to a good market, or does it follow an already
buoyant one? I believe it's the latter, but a good market can last
a while as can the M&A deals, particularly strategic ones where
growth is tough to come by," wrote Peter Boockvar, equity
strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., in a note.
Those announcements came in the wake of last week's $3.9 billion
bid by Dell Inc. (DELL) for Perot Systems Corp. (PER) Earlier in
the month, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) made a $16.7 billion offer for
Cadbury PLC. (CBY)
Mergers had become few and far between as the economic crisis
prompted companies to cling to their cash, and renewed takeover
activity is among the signals that the financial system is on the
mend.
High stakes
"Why does the market get excited about M&A? It's a signal
corporate America believes things are getting better, not worse.
Companies don't make billion-dollar bets when the economy is
deteriorating," said Jefferies' Hogan.
Monday's double-digit drop in would-be acquirer Xerox's stock
was an early indication the deal as proposed may not go through, he
commented, adding that the possible demise of the deal is not
necessarily a bad thing.
The recent spurt of M&A activity marks the beginning of a
cycle that should intensify as "tech companies strive to deepen and
broaden their product offerings," said Hogan.
The biggest players in technology in terms of market
capitalization historically have high levels of cash on their
balance sheets, according to the equity strategist. Hogan pointed
to Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), IBM Corp. (IBM), Microsoft Corp.
(MSFT) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL) as among likely buyers of other
businesses.
"You don't have to go far to find a pretty big pile of cash for
acquisitions," added Hogan.
Xerox (XRX) shares rose 3.1% Tuesday, taking back roughly
one-fifth of the market valuation lost in the prior session's
near-15% slide.
Elsewhere in the IT sector, shares of Unisys Corp. (UIS) slipped
0.4%, retreating from Monday's rise of almost 15% -- a surge Hogan
attributed to speculation it too might be targeted for
acquisition.
On Wall Street, the major indexes lost their early footing after
an index of consumer confidence fell unexpectedly, with
information-technology shares fronting the decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 47.16 points, or
0.5%, to 9,742.2. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) shed 2.37 points, or
0.2%, to 1,060.61, while the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 6.7 points, or 0.3%, to 2,124.04.