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Professor Glen Arnold

Avingtrans – being considered for a net current asset value investment

Nov 11 2016 @ 09:53
Avingtrans (LSE:AVG) has a very big pile of cash relative to its market capitalisation. Cash, even after paying out £19.4m in a share buyback this month, amounts to £37.1m. Once it has completed the repurchase of 35% of its shares, market capitalisation will be 18.3m shares x £2 = £36.6m. (For simplicity, the cash number […]
 

Some managerial characteristics to look out for

Nov 02 2016 @ 04:42
Today we consider some of the ideas of Philip Fisher (investor and influencer of Buffett and others) who emphasised the importance of quality management throughout the organisation if it was to excel over a long time frame, meaning decades ahead. When a management can instil a belief, not just among a few top people but […]
 

Some thoughts on company management

Nov 01 2016 @ 06:11
Today I want to discuss the issue of whether excellent management can, in general, overcome the factor of a very poor economic position, without competitive advantage, and therefore without pricing power and decent rates of return. This leads on to the difficulty for us investors when examining a company going through a hard time to […]
 

Words of wisdom for investors

Oct 31 2016 @ 09:43
I’m busy analysing Avingtrans and Lamprell. If anyone has any information on these companies please could you let me know. It’ll be next week before I can report anything more to you, so, in the meantime, I have some aphorisms for you to consider. Management qualities to look out for The extravagance of any corporate […]
 

Lamprell – is it a net current asset value investment?

Oct 29 2016 @ 02:00
I’m at a very early stage in analysing this company, but it shows some promise. At the end of June it had US$138m of cash and a (crude) net current asset value of US$346m. Its current market capitalisation is only £250m. It also had over US$90m in “buildings and infrastructure”. What it does Lamprell (LSE:LAM), […]
 

Searching for a new net current asset value investment

Oct 28 2016 @ 05:16
I’ve scanned the entire UK market for new NCAV investments. Only two made it to my first short-list – maybe the low availability of NCAV shares tells us something about the price level of the UK relative to balance sheet value? I have to do a lot more work on these before I can report […]
 

Northamber – I’ve finally snapped

Oct 24 2016 @ 04:16
I’ve sold all my remaining shares in Northamber at 30.3p having weighed the odds of David Phillips, founder director and dominant shareholder, of coming to his senses and ceasing the throwing of good money after bad. He has demonstrated a high degree of irrational behaviour in continuing to back the component distribution business with shareholders’ […]
 

Haynes – Piotroski factor analysis, 2016

Oct 19 2016 @ 06:10
(I was very sorry to hear today that Marc Haynes, a director of the company and guiding light for the Haynes Motor Museum, has died – a sad loss at such a young age). Piotroski factors provide some insight into the likelihood of financial distress by examining trends in key accounting metrics over two years. […]
 

Haynes – what could go wrong?

Oct 18 2016 @ 09:39
If things go right for Haynes (LSE:HYNS) its shares could easily bounce from the current £1.25 to the level it was a few years ago, making it a multi-bagger. But we need to acknowledge there is serious downside risk. Here are some of the things that could go wrong. •Continued slide in manual sales Even […]
 

Haynes – some reasons to hope for an improved future

Oct 17 2016 @ 10:17
Currently the automotive manual business of Haynes (LSE:HYNS) is making very little profit in the US and none in the UK, its two largest markets. The bulk of the profits it does make come from HaynesPro, a fast growing hi-tech business. So what hope do we have that the manuals business can be turned around? […]
 
 
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