Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) Options

32.14 double test for bottom needs to hold,

or hope that 30ish holds...

nip and tuck in this market...

next...LJ

Definitely adding some!

Well, I know everyone here didn't think it possible, but it hit the $32.38 support today. A gambler might want to add some here. I'm going to wait a bit personally.
Keep in mind this is a MOVING average....

fung_derf

Member Level
Re: None

Tuesday, December 17, 2024 3:27:44 PM

Post#
1338
of 2862
Current support at $31.65. Can this stock hold? Bad sign if it drops below.

On the other hand, I have a few SQQQ calls to help cushion the blow. Probably not enough.
People sure love to get scared. CRASH!

You must be thinking of Apple from 1999+/-to 2001. The dot com bubble. By 2005 Apple was on the way back up by multiples of the low. iPhone? I don’t think we’re in a tech bubble. Especially in this range. Artificial intelligence stuff is happening now and will explode. I don’t really get why or how but it’s going on now. Did you see where X was bought by xAI? There are things happening with these companies that few really understand. I know I don’t.

Everyone’s rending their garments worrying about tariffs as if that’s the only thing. Yes it’s causing turmoil and uncertainty. Eventually this will pass and folks will calm down. European car makers might decide not to charge American carmakers tariffs. Then the U.S. might reciprocate. I guarantee you right now there are negotiations happening. It doesn’t mean the market won’t crash because people fear it might.

We’ll see what happens. People need to stop watching Maria bartaromo and CNBC and Bloomberg News.

Apple had verified and solid financials back in 2005 from 75 to under 5 dollars in a few months when the market took a dump. Market doesn't like Trump Tariffs especially on foreign cars, 25% on foreign cars is ludicrous, what do you think the domestic car makers are going to do? Price gauging will start. This is not good for the economy. Place your bets on SPY puts market is going to get decimated.

If the financials are accurate, and it seems they are, and with tue revenue rolling in as expected, how is this not $30 to $50 undervalued at this moment? A buying op for sure. When, is the key. Wait for a bottom and load up, which nobody can predict, or just start buying small bits and wait for a trend change.

Markets are in turmoil and everyone and their second cousin are predicting doom and recession, and then seem surprised that consumer confidence is low. And then they scream that low consumer confidence is signaling recession!

Jeez.

And so we watch..... the stock go down the drain 

Being that I have no idea who Jabran Kundi is, the article is just another opinion.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-inc-smci-143021387.html

got nothing else for you...

so we watch...LJ

Agreed overall. I think we will retest the lower 30's this week for sure, but I am expectant that by summer we'll be near $50

It has been trading in a channel. I've been saying for weeks now (maybe months?), until it breaks one way or another its all just moot.
Support is currently $32.29, Resistance is at $45.21....needs to go one way or another at the end of the week to confirm anything.
All the rest is noise.

Hmmm.... drifting down a bit towards recent lows, getting close to time to add more perhaps....what are your thoughts on this?

LOL! Your reason for being here isn't greed?
"Shorts" aren't looking to short a great stock. IF there was all kinds of demand on the long side, no short in his (or her or they or whatever I'm allowed to label them) would be shorting this. You think this stock was shorted on its way to $1000 last year?
It seems everyone on IHUB assumes shorts have super powers. IF I truly believed the game was totally rigged, I'd stop playing it.

115 million shares short is a great reason

to dump the price for share holders...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/key-statistics/

C'mon now, ya know the manipulation for

short crew is just GREED...

No one with enough gumption to squeeze

the crooked SMCI shorts...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI hasn't announced new credit lines yet

after getting filings updated to be able

to back up the forecasts...

Gotta remember what moves the little

penny stocks was learned from big companies...

My best guess on what might help...

Recent quarterly Numbers reflected the pull

back in 4th quarter late in an election year and

may not be guide of what is ahead, Imo...

maybe gs rounded up about 10 million of

selling volume, about a third so far today,

to back up their Lowball forecasts...

But someone bot them also...


so we watch...LJ

All the other noise aside, I find Wall Street seems to know the value better than I do. There's a reason its trading down.

2nd quarter came in at 5.678 billion revenue,

which they had when they did CC...

In same paragraph of transcript,

Nostradamus predicted that SMCI would

meet filing deadlines, and projected about

40 billion revenue next year conservatively...

Let us hope he goes 2 for 2 on those...


so we watch...LJ

So, first off, thanks for posting that link.....

It seems to me like Charles Liang may either be a cockeyed optimist or Nostradamus. He throws out a lot of very large numbers. It's no wonder the analysts are hesitant.
With that said, I notice the CFO found it very important to add this....

David Weigand -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Charles. Please note, these numbers are preliminary and unaudited, subject to some change upon completion of review by management, our audit committee. And additionally, our independent audit firm has not completed its review procedures with respect to this preliminary financial information. So, to start, again, we expect Q2 fiscal year '25 revenues in the range of $5.6 billion to $5.7 billion, up 54% year over year.

02/2025... (SMCI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/02/11/super-micro-computer-smci-q2-2025-earnings-call-tr/

Courtesy of Motley Fool...

First analyst may have muted the rest

of the conference call and answers...


So we watch...LJ

Are you still looking for 50 by Wednesday?...

SMCI has made daily intra day highs

above previous day for four days

in a row...

So the chart does show more interest...

high priced clunker companies for the

rich have been pushed up to start week...

Companies like MU, AVGO, SMCI, and

NVDA are worthy of moving higher...


so we watch...LJ

Maybe the goldman sachs analyst is just stupid...

No need in over thinking about it...

so we watch...LJ

I saw this on another board…makes sense…
“ There is absolutely no doubt that the market is now going through a short squeeze and it should be very very obvious that Goldman needed to protect a large short position, hence the pathetic commentary that makes absolutely no sense given the growth this company is projecting. In the old days, this kind of manipulation was illegal. The last run to $65 caused some huge losses for shorts and they won't just let it happen again. But what is always interesting is that in the market people get emotionally tied to a specific stock and can't let it go. They shorted it once and it may have been profitable. But then they get emotionally tied to it. Instead of going on to the next stock, the next trade, they have to stick with the one they married, thinking they "know" the stock. Think about it, of all the stocks out there, why would you continue to short this one who has turned the corner and is now projecting 50% growth? Especially at these low levels! It's trading today at around 11 times next years earnings projections. The stupidity of these professionals is amazing.”

What happened right around 11:45 that caused the spike? A chart trigger, perhaps, just under $40. Maybe something else?
HOD $42.69. Let’s get $44 today then another 8% tomorrow!
Sunny!

Recommendations and Price Target
Current:
Hold
Number of Analysts
12/31/24 01/31/25 02/28/25 Current
1 - Strong Buy 0 0 0 0
2 - Buy 3 3 4 5
3 - Hold 7 7 7 7
4 - Sell 2 2 2 2
5 - Strong Sell 0 0 0 0
Recommendation
HOLD
2.917
HOLD
2.917
HOLD
2.846
HOLD
2.786
Price Target (Mean) $40.11 $40.61 $51.10 $52.26

No one really knows. Any guess within range of the historical pricing in the last two months seems as good as any other. Last week JPM upgraded. This week Goldman downgraded. What does each of them know the other doesn’t? Different opinions about the future. Does anyone really know the future?
Your view is dim. Mine a little sunnier. Could be wrong.

I've got to think this was one of the more affected stocks due to triple witching.
Let's see what happens now.

That's funny, next market drop starting

around Tuesday off a Monday

prop up wouldn't help...

Most retail are likely to avoid all the

Trump moves for months,

leaving only big money to swap slobber...

Ugly market below that Friday green...

All kind of news came out last week and

didn't help SMCI, why different in a quiet

week ahead expected?...

so we watch...LJ

I’m thinking $50 this week. Now, it might happen by Wednesday and be $43 by Friday. We’ll see.

light volume, SMCI closed .02 below the Friday

a week ago,

so made no headway after a week of

non stop promo activity...

Friday trading activity may have been to

profit off the cheap options bot on Thursday

in mass for Friday expiration...

Adding in $38ish region still looks like a

good option if market stays weak as most

do expect if it even holds up...

Trumpenburg is challenging every idea ever

thought about 3 Branches of Gov't in U.S.

to maintain a check and balance system...

so we watch...LJ

This will turn fast once the markets settle down. You made the point yesterday about the investors giving over $700 million at $61/share. It can’t sit long at $40.

Beautiful close, I am still here and I believe things will turn up fast, when they are ready to run it. On a mediocre market today, we still went up 9% and on a Friday.

Big volume on 40 calls for Friday came

thru on Thursday...

Also a lot of 40 put volume...

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/options?expiration=2025-03-21-m&moneyness=20

In theory a large amount of 40 puts

could have been sold and then about

1/3rd of that premium used to buy the

40 calls...both for Friday expiration...

In theory, if price closed above $40 on

Friday, then that put premium is earned

with big play potential if price takes off

well above $40 on Friday for a close...

That would be genius if a biggie planned

it that way and banked on it if it happened

that way...

Game within the game daily...


so we watch...LJ

Barclays bumps AI server revenue forecasts...

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/barclays-bumps-ai-server-revenue-forecasts-3936372

SMCI 40 billion revenue target was

framed as conservative by CEO...

so we watch...LJ

Supermicro scales up GPU server offerings for
AI workloads...

https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/supermicro-scales-up-gpu-server-offerings-for-ai-workloads-93CH-3935182

SMCI has released plenty of positive

news recently...

so we watch...LJ

Jensen of NVDA signs SMCI product...


https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1072383851600988&set=pcb.1072383948267645


so we watch...LJ

Did you know, the funder that funded SMCI to the tune of 700 million dollars, for every dollar it moves up from 61 dollars will be making close to 12 million dollars. It changes things in whole of scope of things. The rate is excellent of SMCI and it is excellent for the funder to get the price up above 61 dollars, but they have until 2028. Lets see how thing work out, next three quarters will shed the light.

SMCI rally close above $45 on Friday

could take a lot of shares out of

big hands selling calls on them

week after week and then holding

price down to collect premiums...

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/options?expiration=2025-03-21-m&moneyness=20

Very slow volume week so far should have

plenty of buyers on sidelines to do it...


so we watch...LJ

no cheat code needed to get lower price...

perhaps lower is a better term

than cheapies afore the future...

so we watch...LJ

LOL! The beauty of that quote is that no one knows if Musk is just whacky enough to have said it!

If he did, apparently it worked. The stock is up $10 today

"cheapies" is a state of mind. Sadly, its unrecognizable until long after the fact.

I agree.

That post is fake liberal BS.

If it was true, it would have been plastered across all of the mainstream media for days.

SuperMicro GTC25 Infrastructure Update...




These are solutions for Nividia only,

and SMCI offers other Company solutions...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI growth increasing will come from Ai

sector across many companies...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-adds-portfolio-next-wave-224300034.html

If you worry about a dinosaur in stocks,

it still shouldn't cloud your outlook for

finding growth areas and companies...

so we watch...LJ

Is this even real down below. If the Fed is hawkish tomorrow, it will be bloody red day and $TSLA will be down heavily tomorrow bringing SPY down with it.

Look!...SMCI cheapies on deck...some buyers

may have a month or so to wait

on some gains...


so we watch...LJ

Just saw this news.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/super-micro-computer-SMCI/stock-news/95657966/supermicro-adds-portfolio-for-next-wave-of-ai-with

Well, it didn't break out of the channel. That ain't good. Still a crapshoot which way its headed.

Sleeping with the enemy today