Igor Kuchma

For the first time since March 2022, the Fed is taking a pause, leaving the possibility of a rate hike at the July meeting: if there is no significant progress in reducing inflation and cooling labor markets or the economy falls into recession, the rate could be 5.5-5.75%. Overall, the macroeconomic picture remains mixed: while […]

What ECB members were trying to avoid has come true: the EU has entered a technical recession, with two quarters in negative territory. The reason for the dubious achievement has been the sharp rise in energy prices, cuts in public and household spending, as well as falling inventories. However, the European authorities are not panicking […]

The U.S. government has managed to avoid disaster, but at the same time, it has moved even closer to it. As Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, rightly pointed out, freezing the debt ceiling will not solve the problems of the U.S. economy; it simply pushes them away. Yes, we could forget about it for […]

The debt ceiling is practically agreed upon, gold prices contract, and the bulls dominate the markets – will the long-awaited correction never come? Not so fast. Despite PacWest Bancorp’s stock recent rebound, the future of regional banks remains in question. The country’s economy is also starting to tempest on one foot… According to Robert Kaplan, […]

The negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling keep breaking sticks and stones… Today, Joe Biden will meet with McCarthy to discuss the issue and try to reach an agreement. Before leaving Japan after the G7 summit, Mr. President expressed his willingness to cut spending and make necessary fiscal adjustments. However, he rejected the latest offer […]

This week’s focus will be on US debt ceiling negotiations (the next meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders is set for Tuesday), speeches by Fed members, regional bank “breakthroughs”, and corporate earnings. Starting from the end, the corporate sector beat analysts’ expectations again: S&P 500 earnings fell 3% year-over-year versus an expected...

Despite rising debt servicing costs, an ongoing battle with inflation, and a bleak economic outlook, markets, especially in Europe, show no signs of falling. For instance, the STOXX Europe 600 Index has surged over 9.6%, and the German DAX by an astonishing 17% on the year to date basis. Is this another bubble? Better-than-expected earnings […]

Inflation is still a hot topic, and not only in the US. Despite numerous interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, the country is still far from price stability. To be fair, there is a tiny hint of progress, but it is the progress made in spirals. Even the fact that UK CPI moderated […]

Sticks and stones may break my bones but there will always be something to upset the markets. First the coronavirus pandemic, then inflation, and now corporate results. Even though Friday’s reports came in better than many had feared, analysts still expect a 4.8% decline in S&P 500 earnings. The paradox is that stronger numbers will […]

“From a small seed a mighty trunk may grow”, also the saying may not be exactly about financial markets, but there is no better way to describe the short but intense last week. To begin with, for the first time in U.S. history, an ex-U.S. president was indicted on criminal charges. Precisely, for falsifying business […]