Halozyme Therapeutics Incorporated (HALO) Options

Yes, I know but they (especially LaBrosse) and Matthew Possard seem to be selling a fairly good portion of their holdings in Halo. Since they are also telling us they are doing stock buybacks because they think the stock is undervalued, what they are doing is not exactly what I would like to see.

On the other hand, as far as I can tell, Helen has not sold any shares since 2/24.

By the way, perhaps it's just a coincidence and I think the stock will continue to go higher especially if we get new deals and patent extensions but the stock did close just below $56 today.

Those are pre-programmed sales. They have been selling every year since the stock was in single digits and teens. They did not forecast a decline in share price back then and they do not now.

These pre-programmed sales are part of personal portfolio diversification and routine.

I am not sure how much weight the convertibles are but I imagine some very conservative investors who have been getting 1% may convert now, sell and buy treasuries.

I never liked the convertibles or the stock buybacks. Interestingly, LaBrosse and LaBarre have been selling quite a few shares lately.

I have some VKTX too.

Convertible bonds is not a concern for 2 reasons:

1) Halo owns faboulasly profitable call options that will offset the cost of converting the bonds:

“Capped Call Transactions
In connection with the offering of the 2028 Convertible Notes, we entered into capped call transactions with certain counterparties (the “Capped Call Transactions”). The Capped Call Transactions are expected generally to reduce potential dilution to holders of our common stock upon conversion of the 2028 Convertible Notes or at our election (subject to certain conditions) offset any cash payments we are required to make in excess of the principal amount of such converted 2028 Convertible Notes. The cap price of the Capped Call Transactions is initially $75.4075 per share of common stock, representing a premium of 75% above the last reported sale price of $43.09 per share of common stock on August 15, 2022, and is subject to certain adjustments under the terms of the Capped Call Transactions. As of March 31, 2024, no capped calls had been exercised.”

2) The conversion can happen only after the share price is at 130% of the conversion price ($56):

“Holders may convert their 2028 Convertible Notes at their option only in the following circumstances: (1) during any calendar quarter commencing after the calendar quarter ending on December 31, 2022, if the last reported sale price per share of common stock exceeds 130% of the conversion price for each of at least 20 trading days during the 30 consecutive trading days ending on, and including, the last trading day of the immediately preceding calendar quarter; (2) during the five consecutive business days immediately after any five consecutive trading day period (such five consecutive trading day period, the “measurement period”) in which the trading price per $1,000 principal amount of notes for each trading day of the measurement period was less than 98% of the product of the last reported sale price per share of our common stock on such trading day and the conversion rate on such trading day; (3) upon the occurrence of certain corporate events or distributions on our common stock, as described in the offering memorandum for the 2028 Convertible Notes; (4) if we call such notes for redemption; and (5) at any time from, and including, February 15, 2028 until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately before the maturity date. As of March 31, 2024, the 2028 Convertible Notes were not convertible.”

Source: https://s28.q4cdn.com/284259014/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/2f92605f-fbc0-4136-bf68-19cf2c04c704.pdf

Yes, ARGX is a reliable engine for HALO, and as stated will keep the lights on at Halozyme for a while.
Like you I'm not sure of the conversion rate for Vyvgart. Helen might address that in the upcoming call.
But, yes, those convertibles are a weight on things, they always are; and I criticized that financing deal when it was made public.
I think it was the bright idea of the former CFO whose head was so full of financial engineering gimmicks.
Love VKTX. Much more to go there, IMHO.

JPM: Our Take: This morning, Argenx reported Q2’24 Vyvgart sales of $478m 12% / $51m ahead of company consensus, with sales 11%/$39m ahead in the US and 20%//$12m ahead ex-US. For Q2, Argenx announced Vyvgart sales of $478m, up 77% yoy, with sales 12%/$51m ahead of company consensus of $426m.

Pretty impressive. I haven't listened to the call and don't know if they have said anything about what portion of total sales were Hytrulo sales.

Do you think the $56 conversion price of the convertible notes is putting some pressure on PPS?

It looks like XBI may break out soon. VKTX is helping the sector today.

ARGX reports
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https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/argenx-ARGX/stock-news/94250967/form-6-k-report-of-foreign-issuer-rules-13a-16

argenx Reports Half Year 2024 Financial Results and Provides Second Quarter Business Update


$478 million in second quarter global net product sales


First CIDP patients treated with VYVGART® Hytrulo following June 21st FDA approval


On track to begin four additional registrational studies across efgartigimod and empasiprubart by end of 2024


Management to host conference call today at 2:30 PM CET (8:30 AM ET)



July 25, 7:00 AM CET


Amsterdam, the Netherlands – argenx SE (Euronext & Nasdaq: ARGX), a global immunology company committed to improving the lives of people suffering from severe autoimmune diseases, today announced its half year 2024 results and provided a second quarter business update.


“We were excited to unveil our ambition for the future of argenx – Vision 2030 – last week, outlining our plan to develop and deliver continued and sustainable innovation for patients,” said Tim Van Hauwermeiren, Chief Executive Officer, argenx. “We are already delivering on this promise with impressive commercial execution throughout the first half of the year, expanding our patient reach in MG, and launching in CIDP with our broad FDA label. Our development pipeline is stronger than ever, driven by our unique innovation engine. And we are well-positioned to capture the sizeable growth opportunity before us as we seek to reach earlier-line MG patients over the next 12-18 months with potential label expansions and a pre-filled syringe.”


Vision 2030


During its R&D Day on July 16, 2024, argenx unveiled its ‘Vision 2030’ as part of its long-term commitment to transform the treatment of autoimmune diseases by strengthening its leadership in neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) biology, investing in its continuous pipeline of differentiated antibody candidates, and scaling in a disciplined way to ensure innovation remains core to the argenx mission. ‘Vision 2030’ includes the following goals:

? 50,000 patients globally on treatment with an argenx medicine
? 10 labeled indications across all approved assets, including VYVGART franchise and potentially empasiprubart and ARGX-119
? Five new molecules in Phase 3 development indicating ongoing investment in internal discovery engine, the Immunology Innovation Program

Reaching 50,000 Patients Globally


VYVGART (efgartigimod alfa-fcab) is a first-in-class antibody fragment targeting FcRn and is now approved for both intravenous use and subcutaneous injection (SC) (efgartigimod alfa and hyaluronidase-qvfc) in three indications, including generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) globally, primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in Japan, and chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) in the U.S.


? Generated global net product sales (inclusive of both VYVGART and VYVGART SC) of $478 million in second quarter of 2024
? National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) approved VYVGART SC for treatment of gMG in China through Zai Lab on July 16, 2024
? Additional VYVGART regulatory decisions on approval expected for gMG in 2024, including in Switzerland, Australia, and Saudi Arabia
? Launched VYVGART Hytrulo in CIDP in U.S. with first patients injected in July
? Multiple VYVGART SC regulatory submissions under review or planned for CIDP, including:
o Regulatory submissions completed in China, Japan, and Europe with decisions on approval expected in 2025
o Regulatory submission filing in Canada by end of 2024
? Announced plan to evaluate VYVGART in ocular MG with registrational study (ADAPT OCULUS) to start by end of year; OCULUS to support label-expansion strategy into broader MG populations along with ongoing ADAPT SERON study in seronegative MG
? Regulatory submission filed and under regulatory review for VYVGART SC pre-filled syringe (PFS) for gMG and and CIDP

Advancing Pipeline to Achieve 10 Labeled Indications by 2030


argenx continues to demonstrate breadth and depth within its immunology pipeline, advancing multiple pipeline-in-a-product candidates. argenx is solidifying its leadership in FcRn biology, with efgartigimod currently in development in 15 indications. argenx is also advancing its first-in-class C2 inhibitor, empasiprubart, which is being evaluated in multifocal motor neuropathy (MMN), delayed graft function (DGF), dermatomyositis (DM), and CIDP. In addition, argenx is evaluating ARGX-119, a muscle-specific kinase (MuSK) agonist in both congenital myasthenic syndrome (CMS) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).


? Registrational studies ongoing of efgartigimod in thyroid eye disease (TED)
? Advancing development of efgartigimod in primary Sjogren’s disease (SjD) with Phase 3 study to begin by end of 2024
? Following alignment meeting with FDA, confirmatory study of VYVGART (IV) in primary ITP to start by end of 2024 to enable registration in U.S.
? Topline data from seamless Phase 2/3 ALKIVIA study evaluating efgartigimod across three myositis subsets (immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy (IMNM), anti-synthetase syndrome (ASyS), and DM expected in fourth quarter of 2024
? Update on BALLAD study development plan evaluating efgartigimod in bullous pemphigoid (BP) expected by end of 2024
? Proof-of-concept studies ongoing with efgartigimod in membranous nephropathy (MN) and lupus nephritis (LN) with studies expected to initiate this year in antibody mediated rejection (AMR) and systemic sclerosis (SSc)
? Phase 3 study of empasiprubart for MMN to initiate in fourth quarter of 2024
? CIDP nominated as fourth empasiprubart indication, recognizing opportunity to bring multiple innovative treatments to patients
? Phase 1b/2a studies of ARGX-119 to assess early signal detection in patients with CMS and ALS to start by end of 2024

Investing in Immunology Innovation Program to Support Five New Molecules in Phase 3 by 2030


argenx continues to invest in its Immunology Innovation Program (IIP) to drive long-term sustainable pipeline growth. Through the IIP, four new pipeline candidates have been nominated, including: ARGX-213, targeting FcRn and further solidifying argenx’s leadership in this new class of medicine; ARGX-121, a first-in-class molecule targeting IgA; ARGX-109, targeting IL-6, which plays an important role in inflammation, and ARGX-220, a first-in-class sweeping antibody for which the target has not yet been disclosed.

? Phase 1 studies of ARGX-213 and ARGX-121 expected to start in second half of 2025
? Investigational new drug (IND) applications for ARGX-220 and ARGX-109 on track to be filed by end of 2025




SECOND QUARTER 2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS

argenx SE

UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF PROFIT OR LOSS


Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

June 30,

June 30,

(in thousands of $ except for shares and EPS)

2024

2023

2024

2023

Product net sales



$

477,635


$

269,313


$

875,918


$

487,335

Collaboration revenue

-



1,237



2,718



2,355

Other operating income



11,793



10,485



23,305



21,225

Total operating income

$

489,428


$

281,035


$

901,941


$

510,915















Cost of sales

$

(52,383)


$

(24,024)


$

(95,561)


$

(42,359)

Research and development expenses



(225,286)



(195,509)



(450,255)



(361,364)

Selling, general and administrative expenses

(255,699)



(161,977)



(491,694)



(311,149)

Loss from investment in joint venture



(1,521)



(1,619)



(3,313)



(1,880)

Total operating expenses

$

(534,889)


$

(383,129)


$

(1,040,823)



(716,752)















Operating loss

$

(45,461)


$

(102,094)


$

(138,882)


$

(205,837)















Financial income

$

38,933


$

20,441


$

77,828


$

37,029

Financial expense



(572)



(207)



(1,084)



(395)

Exchange gains/(losses)

(7,903)



(2,001)



(27,215)



9,164















Loss for the period before taxes

$

(15,003)


$

(83,861)


$

(89,353)


$

(160,039)

Income tax benefit/(expense)



$

44,069


$

(10,507)


$

56,822


$

36,800

Profit/(loss) for the period

$

29,066


$

(94,368)


$

(32,531)


$

(123,239)

Profit/(loss) for the period attributable to:













Owners of the parent

$

29,066


$

(94,368)


$

(32,531)


$

(123,239)

Weighted average number of shares outstanding



59,490,437



55,828,239



59,400,217



55,690,873

Basic profit/(loss) per share (in $)

0.49



(1.69)



(0.55)



(2.21)

Diluted profit/(loss) per share (in $)



0.45



(1.69)



(0.55)



(2.21)

Net increase/(decrease) in cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets compared to year-end 2022 and 2023







(77,497)


$

(195,580)

Cash and cash equivalents and current financial assets at the end of the period









3,102,347


$

1,996,968



DETAILS OF THE FINANCIAL RESULTS

Total operating income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 was $489 million and $902 million compared to $281 million and $511 million for the same periods in 2023, and mainly consists of:


?Product net sales of VYVGART and VYVGART SC for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, were $478 million and $876 million compared to $269 million and $487 million for the same periods in 2023.
?Other operating income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 was $12 million and $23 million compared to $10 million and $21 million for the same periods in 2023. The other operating income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, primarily relates to research and development tax incentives.

Total operating expenses for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 were $535 million and $1,041 million compared to $383 million and $717 million for the same periods in 2023, and mainly consists of:


? Cost of sales for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 was $52 million and $96 million compared to $24 million and $42 million for the same periods in 2023. The cost of sales was recognized with respect to the sale of VYVGART and VYVGART SC.
? Research and development expenses for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 were $225 million and $450 million compared to $196 million and $361 million for the same periods in 2023. The research and development expenses mainly relate to external research and development expenses and personnel expenses incurred in the clinical development of efgartigimod in various indications and the expansion of other clinical and preclinical pipeline candidates.
? Selling, general and administrative expenses for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 were $256 million and $492 million compared to $162 million and $311 million for the same periods in 2023. The selling, general and administrative expenses mainly relate to professional and marketing fees linked to the commercialization of VYVGART and VYVGART SC, and personnel expenses.

Financial income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, was $39 million and $78 million compared to $20 million and $37 million for the same periods in 2023. The increase in financial income is mainly due to an increase in interest income coming from an increase of cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets as a result of the July 2023 financing round.


Exchange losses for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, were $8 million and $27 million compared to $2 million exchange losses and $9 million of exchange gains for the same periods in 2023. Exchange gains/losses are mainly attributable to unrealized exchange rate gains or losses on the cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets denominated in Euro.


Income tax for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, was $44 million and $57 million of income tax benefit, respectively, compared to $11 million of income tax expense and $37 million of income tax benefit for the same periods in 2023.


Net Result for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, was $29 million profit and $33 million loss compared to $94 million and $123 million loss for the same periods in 2023. On a per weighted average share basis, the basic profit was $0.49 and diluted profit was $0.45 for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to a basic and diluted loss of $1.69 for the same period in 2023. On a per weighted average share basis, the basic and diluted loss was $0.55 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to a basic and diluted loss of $2.21 for the same period in 2023.


Cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets totalled $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to $3.2 billion as of December 31, 2023. The decrease in cash and cash equivalents and current financial assets result from a net cash flows used in operating activities.


FINANCIAL GUIDANCE


Based on its current operating plans, argenx expects its combined research and development and selling, general and administrative expenses in 2024 to be less than $2 billion. argenx updated its cash burn guidance and now expects to utilize less than $500 million of net cash* iin 2024 on anticipated operating expenses as well as working capital and capital expenditures.








EXPECTED 2024 FINANCIAL CALENDAR


? October 31, 2024: 3Q 2024 financial results and business update
? February 27, 2025: Full-year 2024 financial results and 4Q 2024 business update

CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS

The half-year 2024 financial results and second quarter business update will be discussed during a conference call and webcast presentation today at 2:30 PM CET/8:30 AM ET. A webcast of the live call and replay may be accessed on the Investors section of the argenx website at argenx.com/investors.


Dial-in numbers:

Please dial in 15 minutes prior to the live call.


Belgium32 800 50 201

France33 800 943355

Netherlands31 20 795 1090

United Kingdom44 800 358 0970

United States1 800 715 9871

Japan81 3 4578 9081

Switzerland41 43 210 11 32


About argenx


argenx is a global immunology company committed to improving the lives of people suffering from severe autoimmune diseases. Partnering with leading academic researchers through its Immunology Innovation Program (IIP), argenx aims to translate immunology breakthroughs into a world-class portfolio of novel antibody-based medicines. argenx developed and is commercializing the first approved neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) blocker, globally in the U.S., Japan, Israel, the EU, the UK, China and Canada. The Company is evaluating efgartigimod in multiple serious autoimmune diseases and advancing several earlier stage experimental medicines within its therapeutic franchises. For more information, visit www.argenx.com and follow us on LinkedIn, X/Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.


For further information, please contact:

Halozyme is exactly what the doctor ordered for tumultuous market like this. Terrific earnings offered at a great value but not for long.

Same here.

It's a combination of valuation and signs of life and forward momentum in the pipeline. I'm sitting on it until the end of the year and will reassess.

It just seems that is what the HVAI was made for.

TAK-881 = "Immune Globulin Subcutaneous (Human), 20% Solution With Recombinant Human Hyaluronidase "

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10739571/

Good point. What is your exit strategy?

Those yahoo PE ratios are trailing 12 months ratios.

I was referring to full 2024 PE ratio (based on the earnings guidance for the rest of this year). NASDAQ is accurate.

Since Halo’s earnings are guided to be much higher in 2024 vs 2023, the new ratio is much lower. Even if you assume that we end up with the same multiple in 2025 (i.e. no new deals and no new catalyst), the price will have to go up between now and 2025 just to maintain the same PE ratio.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios#google_vignette

It's good to have an exit strategy in place. Yahoo says the current PE is 23.42 and NASDAQ says P/E is 29.98.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo
What is your formula for calculating it that you believe it is now 14?

I will take profits when

1) 2024 PE is above 25 without any new deals

2) 2024 PE is above 28 with a new deal

3) PEG ration is above 1.0

3) When perma-bears have all capitulated and gone long

None of these conditions are in place yet. We are still at a 2024 PE of 14 and change.

For the latest PE and PEG ratios, see:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios

I'm auto-injecting the good news!

Another 52 week high.
Go Halo!!!!!!

Why do you think an auto-injector is necessary for TAK-881?

Need to expedite getting Enhanze into the AI for a triple combo of "Drug-Enhanze-AI....to protect it's market......

The competition is not stopping..........

https://www.kedglobal.com/bio-pharma/newsView/ked202407230012

Thank you very much!

Great, Sabirnetug, as noted earlier, is on the potential drug watch list.....there is no doubt if it progresses on, it will eventual be using a HALO AI for a triple, "Drug, Enhanze, AI combo.".

Another drug on list with potential, triple combo..."VH4524184," has a new trial posting using rhuph20.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06310551?term=ViiV%20Healthcare&limit=10&sort=StudyFirstPostDate&rank=7

Another drug on the watch list for a triple combo..... TAK-881, which has long suspected would eventually need an AI......Would like to know what is the new medical device.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06076642?term=hyaluronidase%20(human%20recombinant)&viewType=Table&aggFilters=status:not&rank=1

" Treatment Preference Measured by a Disease-specific Questionnaire for Participants and the Investigational Medical Device Using TAK-881 in Participants Aged >=12 Years"

"The single-use only SC needle set will be used to administer TAK-881 to the target depth below the skin surface. One needle set (single or bifurcated) will be used per infusion."

"Studies a U.S. FDA-Regulated Device Product......Yes"

"Unapproved/Uncleared Device........Yes"

new trial: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06511570?intr=Rhuph20&sort=StudyFirstPostDate&rank=1

Nice. Thanks for sharing.

-- OJ

Another nice find. Well done!

You are welcome.

A new trial:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06503731?term=NCT06503731&rank=1

Great analysis and commentary. Thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us.

I, personally, am not familiar with the patent intricacies so it's great to hear from a fellow shareholder who is.

My specialty is writing about the latest and greatest forms of cancer medicine, and I'm keenly aware of the competition for market share in certain therapeutic settings among Big Pharmas like J&J, Merck, BMS, Roche, AbbVie, etc. So this is why I'm so bullish on Halo, because I see Enhanze as a way for Big Pharmas to grab market share from each other. It's like Halo sells bullets to armies on both sides of the war, and there's no cease-fire in sight. I just wish more analysts had a similarly bullish perspective.

-- OJ

Thanks, but not much of a find when one knows where and when to look for new filing and patent postings

A side note, with the ease of using HVAI over IV, there is no doubt the HVAI will be used for multiple injections throughout the day or week to provide a more steady state conc. of drugs in the body, which is noted in several patents/filings related to Enhanze......also hinted at by Dr Torley.....just get it done.....

Great find! Thank you

Another of many product filings they keep pushing out after getting a patent (#3)......but why...

Start marketing the products.....start making money for all the detailed effort....or stop wasting investors money spinning your wheels......IMO........

Oh well go HALO, do just fine as of late.......waiting for the big 60............

Today's new filing........ https://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2024/0238311.html

Listed are all 10 product filings and all 11 filings for the injector.

1 US20240238311 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

2 US20240131035 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

3 11857555 Aqueous pharmaceutical formulation of hydrocortisone sodium phosphate and monothioglycerol
Aqueous hydrocortisone sodium phosphate and monothioglycerol formulations are disclosed.

4 JP2023542345A Hydrocortisone sodium phosphate and monothioglycerol aqueous pharmaceutical formulation
Aqueous hydrocortisone sodium phosphate and monothioglycerol formulations are disclosed. [

5 WO/2023/183807A1 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

6 US20230302016 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

7 EP4213827A1 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

8 US20230099165 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

9 US20220096496 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

10 WO/2022/061303A1 AQUEOUS PHARMACEUTICAL FORMULATION OF HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM PHOSPHATE AND MONOTHIOGLYCEROL

I would think Halo gets royalties from all territories, including China. What makes you think they may not?

I hope you are right about multiple new deals but it's hard for me to be so optimistic. I don't know why deals have become smaller and far in between in the past several years but I don't quite see why the EU patent extension will make it easier to sign new partnerships. It's also hard for me to blame Helen. She signed partnerships with the likes of Janssen, Lilly, Abbvie as early as 2014. I can't believe she has become completely inept. Also, Enhanze is not a hidden gem that needs better marketing. Even before her tenure, Halo had partnerships with Roche and Pfizer. Enhanze has been around for a long time and everybody knows about it. Unfortunately, the simplest explanation is probably the correct one: demand is not what it used to be.

Honestly, I have no idea why they haven't been able to capitalize on the success of Darzalex SC and why some of their partnerships have been fruitless. I expected they would have 30-40 Enhanze products in development by now but it hasn't happened. I also don't understand why Alteogen was able to create a "standalone" of Enhanze. Couldn't Halo do the same thing? Could they still do it?

I agree that analysts and money managers are waiting for new deals. If they are unable to sign significant new partnerships in the next few months, though, Halo needs to stop the stock buybacks and focus on M&A, the sooner the better, imho.

Current PPS is still more than $5 shy of all time highs mainly for one reason: the clause in their agreement with Janssen about the royalty step-down. JNJ reported Darzalex sales today. Here is a note from JPM:

"Our Take: Ahead of Genmab’s detailed Q2’24 results on August 1st, JNJ has reported Q2’24 Darzalex sales of $2,878m, 3% ahead of company consensus and 3% ahead of JPMe, with the beat vs. JPMe driven by US sales of $1,641m, which came in 6% ahead , with ex US sales of $1,237m, which was in line. Based on this update, we expect Genmab to modestly upgrade its 2024 Darzalex sales guidance to $11,100m-11,500m (from: $10,900m-11,500m), which should underpin consensus expectations at $11,259m."

I think the above illustrates how massively important Darzalex and that clause are to Halo. At a 4% royalty rate, Halo is likely to get over $400M in royalties in 2024 (guidance for total royalties is $520-555). Best case scenario is that Halo gets the same patent extension in US and so Halo's royalties will be cut in half in 2029 and end in 2032. The same will happen for the royalties from Amivantamab. By 2029 Darzalex SC and Amivantamab SC sales will probably be over $20B.

Without that clause, I would think Halo's PPS would be at least $80 now.

I wonder if the China deal will result in revenue for HALO from other than that created by providing the enzyme for the co-formulation. I'm thinking it won't produce any royalties or such, but I could be wrong. What are your thoughts about that?
China approval was a positive news item; as is the ARG-117, which, it must be noted, is still in Phase I according to HALO's slide presentation.
ARGX, at least, is going to keep the lights on at Halozyme for a while.

Due to the unexpected wins in the IP front, I expect multiple new deals to come in short order and announced in a series of PR's and, if I'm correct, this will light the candle and propel us to substantial new highs.
Of course, continued failure to deliver these will, in time, erode the confidence of investors and the PPS will start to reflect the limited upside of the current pipeline.
Time will tell.

We've bounced back due to IP wins and interest rate predictions, but current PPS is more than $5 shy of all time highs set over a year and a half ago.
Money managers are waiting for new deals, and that's the bottom line, IMHO.
Good luck to us all.

Efga SC was approved in China yesterday. And we got one more positive surprise at Argenex's R&D day. From JPM:

"We note that if the company were to successfully deliver on the 2030 Vision of addressing 50k patients (vs. 10k patients at present, already annulising at Revenues of c.$1.7bn), at Vyvgart-like pricing, this would imply at least a c.$8.7bn topline in 2030. This would be c.30% above 2030 Bloomberg consensus Revenues of $6.7bn, with far bigger upside beyond 2030, given how early many of the pipeline opportunities would be in their launches."

ARGX has another Enhanze product in development: ARGX-117/empa, which they called another "pipeline-in-a-product."

Obviously, getting the co-formulation patent for Efga SC that would guarantee royalties to Halo until 2040 will make a big difference. Another positive surprise (new deals, Darzalex SC US patent grant, co-formulation patents...) will probably take us to new highs.

Glad you are still here and have not given up. It gives me more reassurance that we are not at a top.

Sometimes permabear (yes, I know you claim you are not one) capitulation signals a top. Glad you are still here and trying to say that halo run is insignificant (your last post).

For folks who have been here on this board since 2023 or care to go back and read your posts, they will know your bearishness (despite claiming you own shares) since we were in low 30’s.

Many of us longs pointed to the amazing fundamentals and steadfastly posted about buying on the dips. As predicted by some of us, the stock has risen from low 30’s to the current levels DESPITE A SINGLE NEW DEAL. Of course we congratulate ourselves for making the right choice despite the shortsighted bearish views on this board.

OK…, I was never a bear on this stock… I thought I posted about that, maybe not clearly enough for some. I continue to hold a very few thousand shares which will not go long term until Oct. 25, unfortunately. But, I am glad that they are moving up, rather than down. With the market up like it was yesterday and with the rotation, there were quite a few 52 week highs. https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/newfiftytwoweekhighsandlows There are many people congratulating themselves for being geniuses. Hehe. All in all, I am not dissatisfied with my buy/sell decisions. I am the only person I need to please, when it comes to that. I am amazed that there exist people I don’t even know, and who don’t know me, apparently deriving satisfaction from imagining otherwise. Be my guest. Good luck to all. Cheers.

Another 52 week high. Where is EasyComeEasyGo?

Come back and tell us how you were never a bear on this stock and how you timed your moves perfectly ;)

To answer a question from the past, with today's example.......

It took took a little over 3 yrs, 2 mns to go from filing to patent......

https://www.freepatentsonline.com/12037618.html

Publication Date: 07/16/2024
Filing Date: 05/21/2021

Will give 20 years for the specific new claims in the new patent, following the long family of similar patents, which were posted earlier.........

"PH20 polypeptide variants, formulations and uses thereof "

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and perspectives.

As I reflect on this more, I'm thinking perhaps it has to do with the very high degree of institutional ownership. (See attached.) Apparently people like us, retail shareholders, hold only a tiny minority (0.8%) of outstanding shares. I'm guessing institutions take time to make investment decisions, do not act quickly or try to time the market. But that's just a guess.

Good luck to you.

-- OJ

Halo’s fundamentals and valuations are absolutely the envy of most. Its share price will continue to do well for the next several years.

Having said this, I am disappointed that Helen has still not delivered on 2 out of the 3 partnerships she guided for 2023. We are almost 7 months into 2024 and still nothing.

The second thing that is irritating is that they seem to be gearing up for an acquisition sooner than I had hoped for. I say this because of the new job posting for an executive director of M&A on halo’s website.

In my view, they need to get a few more Enhanze partnerships before they buy another company.

Agree both are interesting and worth skimming thru.......

Not sure where the obesity connection will go, but in these days of over consumption, anytime a drug is connected to "obesity," "an intervention" and "a novel therapeutic strategy," an investor needs to take notice.....

With the consortium connection, one would think there would be more info out there on upcoming HVAI deals by now...........

https://subcutaneousconsortium.org/membership-overview/

Thank you for sharing your perspective.

I would guess there are several reasons.

First of all, Halo is not a small-cap stock. Several other mid-cap and large biotechs didn’t participate (Asnd, Argx and others.)

Second, Halo is up 55% from six months ago and, for better or worse, is not the type of biotech that can make huge moves up or down overnight. It is a lower risk/lower reward stock than many other biotechs.

Third, the stock peaked around $50, $54 and then $59 in 2021 and 2022. In 2022, Halo sold convertible notes that have a conversion price of $56. Because of all of the above, the stock has a lot of resistance in this area.

Halo beats to its own drum. Institutions own most of it and traders play with it. Fundamentals are great and that drives the price. It’s going to go much higher sooner than later. Last time it made highs a few years ago the price dropped over 30 percent very quickly. This time it’s holding tight.

Does anyone have any theories as to why . . .

HALO did not participate in today's strong rally that drove the price of so many small caps upward?

According to the Wall Street Journal, today the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks soared 3.6% in its best day since November. Some of my other small biotech stocks (I own half a dozen) jumped 5, 7, even 9%. Every darned holding in my brokerage list (roughly 14) was green EXCEPT for HALO, which was in the red, down slightly.

This defies logic, in my world. The company is becoming a cash cow. We've been held hostage, or so I thought, by the stubbornly high yield on the 10-year Treasury. But even when the 10-year yield dropped sharply today, the HALO price did not budge.

I'd be interested in what other shareholders on this board think might be the reason HALO did not participate in today's strong small-cap rally.

-- OJ

P.S. Even my utilities ETF advanced!

Nice finds. Both links are interesting.

Shhh, its all a secret…..

Acknowledgement: PEGPH20 is an in-kind gift from Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc under a Material Transfer Agreement.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.06.22.600183v1.full.pdf

This consortium is actually mentioned in the HVAI filing…..
https://subcutaneousconsortium.org/news-and-events/

I also don't think it was a sector thing. There was quite a bit of churn yesterday, even today volume was a bit higher than average and Halo was weaker than the sector. It may just be that there is a lot of resistance in this area and the stock is consolidating. Also, I am sure some investors are skeptical that there will be more positive surprises or new deals soon. Time will tell.

Got it, thanks.

Talking about full year 2024 PE.

If we end 2024 at the same PE we ended 2023, we will be in the $70-80 range, simply because the E (earnings) has gone up so much.

Here is the full 2023 and 2024 PE ratios:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios

Not to my knowledge, but it's hard to keep all of our many customers straight. (That's a good problem to have.)

sorry no clue