Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA) Options

Yes, COPD symptoms can worsen during spring and summer due to seasonal changes in temperature, humidity, and air quality. Springtime can see increased pollen and allergens, while summer brings hot and humid conditions that can make breathing more difficult. Per google labs ai

Questions:

1) Will warmer weather play a role in a larger % increase for Q2?

2) If "Yes", possibly as high as 100%?

Correct PR ...
Verona Pharma Reports First Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update/

Does it go above $75 after the CC?

And I was low as it barely stayed in my range on the upper side and the milestone of 50 mil was well off my range. 126 m income is a great start. 95% quarterly growth should get max peak revenue to double digit billions by 2027

I guess I was too high.

Verona Pharma to Report First Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Provide Corporate Update

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-to-report-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-provide-corporate-update/

Here is my guess: 40,000 patients with $100M+ in revenues, say $108M.

All the best for these patients.

revenues went from 6m (2,500 patients) in Q3 to 36m (16,000) in Q4 to Xm (Y patients) in Q1. What do you think X and Y are, leaving out milestone payments?

Depends on how big the milestone payment for the china progress paid out. We know it came in q1 2025. If it's 10m my est range is 65 to 85m. If it paid out 25m my range is 80 to 100m.

PW, I cannot even make a case for $70m or $80m because the math looks like it points to $90m. Can anyone make a case for less than $90m? What # of patients, uptake, etc. are people assuming?

Optimism abounds! Agree, Hoskuld, and would not be surprised if revenue is $70M+.

Been sitting on pins and needles since the PR, especially when SP dropped into 50's ... added some at that time.

The highest estimate that I have seen for Q1 revenues is $53m. I think that is low by $!0s of millions. How does even the most aggressive analyst land at $53m? Can anyone's math arrive at less than $65m?

Earnings call next Tuesday 29APR. Going to be important information dropped there, IMO.

Cantor Fitzgerald Initiates Verona Pharma at Overweight
MT Newswires - 8:05 AM ET 4/21/2025
Investment News

08:05 AM EDT, 04/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Verona Pharma ( VRNA ) has an average rating of buy and mean price target of $80.30, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

Everyone probably saw this already, but IMO a great sign that they added another validated filling line due to demand: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ritedose-adds-seventh-syntegon-packaging-line-to-expand-single-vial-packaging-capabilities-support-production-of-new-copd-drug-ohtuvayre-302430286.html

Verona Pharma to Report First Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Provide Corporate Update {on Tuesday, April 29th}

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-to-report-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-provide-corporate-update/

Apparently, that is not going to happen. 🙁

I hope Verona in the first week of April has the same type of PR as in January.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175630309

I don't think I was aware of a SA article! FWIW, if it is published by SA then it is just not worth reading (in my experience!) SA is good for conference call transcripts, and that is it, IMO.

Apparently, Hoskuld, some people read Stocktwits this weekend ... and realized the SA article was full of **it.

Thank you.

There are a couple of testimonials on the VRNA board on stocktwits - one from a patient and one from a pulmonologist - that are incredibly positive.

Is there any news on Verona, given yesterday's late sudden plunge and today's early continuation of that?

Than you in advance.

Agree 10b per year revenue for copd in the u.s. prior to peak, with peak near 20b, but more like 40b per yr at peak once asthma and bronchiectasis are on the u.s. label. Add 20b per yr once the international markets are half developed.

Verona Pharma plc (VRNA): A Bull Case Theory

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-plc-vrna-bull-132023995.html

Agree ... I think it will be a crooked number(s) above $10B.

I think it will exceed $10b by a large margin.

Mentioned very active in seeking a partner for eu. Did not object to 3, 5, or even 10b per yr peak market

PW, I did not listen because they just gave their conference call last week. I missed downloading the live transcript, too, which I wish I would have grabbed!

What did VRNA execs state at the Cowen meeting this morning?

VRNA six months chart

If at $625m run rate by end of Q1 (current pace suggests this) and uptake continue at least at this pace, then Q2 would end with roughly the 64,000 patients it takes to get to a $1b run rate, and Q3 would end with $1.4b run rate, and Q4 would end with a $1.8b run rate. I think progress will be better the more I look at this, so let's say $2b run rate. That would make it possible - I mean just possible - that 2025 revenue could reach that $1b level. That would be ahead of schedule and point to the $5b-$10b revenue area that I think we are headed for (US market only.)

That is over $600m in annual revenue.

Seems possible if the macro environment holds together and current uptake continues.

$100 by the end of June?

With 40,000 patients, that is almost a half of a Billion in revenue annually.

Go VERONA!

And yet the revenue number given to justify that is so much lower than what will actually be realized.

Wells Fargo analyst Tiago Fauth maintains Verona Pharma (VRNA) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $74 to $93.

Nice to see such an increase in the target.

They were asked but didn't give specifics.

So, Hoskuld, what about EU and UK? Are there any plans to file for approval?

40,000 by end of March seems very do-able. I think share price will more than double by year end.

Almost a double since y/e ... may it continue at that pace!

30,000 as of yesterday.

Tuned in late. Did they give an updated patient count for Jan or feb? TIA

This is a spectacular launch to date.

Verona Pharma Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update/

Roger, how are you feeling?

Time of cc signals good news, imo

Given the quick move to $65.70 and subsequent halving of the gain, it seems MM's still seeking weak hands ... especially with tomorrow's CC before the market opens looming!

Yes the high end is reasonable but the low end seems too low to credit. Zero new patients results in...16,000 patients = $250m per year, divided by 4 gives $62m for current quarter. If they add the bare minimum new patients during CQ (1,000 per week) then that would be average of 22,500 partients = $87m for CQ.

Estimated outlook for cq are between 65 and 90 million