Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Options

What happened? Did the FUDsters, bashers and short sellers paint the tape near the close?

OK, went back to listen to it again and, regarding the EMA submission, they add... "and it was accepted for review late last year."
So, that would mean late December, right? Given that the parallel 3-71/schizophrenia trial was public knowledge at the time, that, to me, just reinforces the likelihood that they decided to keep the focus of their video about ALZ. I think that's a smart move when the goal is to introduce what can be an overwhelming wave of potential AVXL product candidates.

Not really much to say it's pretty much low volume and pennies either way just about every day

The overview explicitly talked about 3-71 having only pre clinical trials. Given that the discussion seemed to be pretty well researched that suggests to me that it was made before the schizophrenia P1 was announced.

re: stockexplorer's Anavex overview, hope everybody is forwarding the link.
A very upbeat, encouraging and clear perspective on the MOAs of Blarcamesine and 3-71.
Definitely perfect for first-pass education of the masses (of potential investors).

It shows "22 hours" was how long ago video was installed in Youtube. Anybody know when the video was actually created? The absence of any reference to Schizophrenia was odd, but perhaps they decided to focus solely on Alzheimers and avoid confusing their audience with the myriad proposed targets for both drugs.

In 1995, I ran a company in Santa Cruz, CA that developed a new server for building high-end Web apps, a big deal then. Until they came up with better strategies, our sales people hated selling it because talking to perspective clients, the last thing they wanted to say was "anything!" A lesson I carried with me the rest of my now-completed career.

Very well done discussion of Anavex drug pipeline and why it has promise.

It is old enough that it doesn't mention that 3-71 is now in P2 trials for schizophrenia. That was the only shortcoming.

Thanks for bringing that to the board.

Great question! I’m curious to see what kind of replies this generates. I’m hopeful that increased % holding by tutes will put an end to the insane manipulation but I may be nuts.

Can't fight this schitty market.

AVXL



Good luck and GOD bless,

Expect AVXL to close GREEN today in anticipation of good news next week regarding AVXL stock!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

Thank you (and ignatiusrielly35).
This one seems perfect for me if you click on the 5 day and then the 1 day.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/avxl/advanced-charting

And once you find the number(s) you then must decipher what they mean.
is it an individual(s) trade?
Is it covering a short be it long or short term?
Is it adding or beginning acquisition?

MOC is many things and almost exclusively a "pros" tool.

My online brokers quote shows the last trade of the regular session by volume and price. You can also see a list of ALL individual trades at the NASDAQ website, including the time stamp. 

MOC totals. Look to the right on any IHub page. Just below the note that says Delayed by 15 minutes are two charts. Click on the 1D and you will see the price in the upper portion and below it the volume chart. You can watch the price as well as the volume through the day. Then at 16:00 + 15 minutes you will see the spike for the MOC order total. Or yes on my brokers site if I click on a stock I own to put in a trade up comes the Bid / Ask / Volume today total. So if I click on AVXL stock at 15:50 10 seconds prior to normal close for the day I see Bid Ask and Volume total. Then reclick on it at 16:00: 15seconds after the close then I get the volume of Total for the day.. subtract the 15:59 volume and you have the MOC total. Yesterdays MOC total was something around 125,000 shares.

John k9uwa

Question for the board: is there a point where the level of institutional ownership becomes a driving force for stock price? I speculate that institutions are continuing to buy and that we are probably nearing 50 percent at this point in time.

Both Anavex’s blarcamesine and/or Anavex3-71 will prove to be an effective treatment and prevention for ALS (Lou Gehrig’s) disease,

“… The sigma-1 receptor (S1R) is a protein in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) that is linked to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The S1R is a potential therapeutic target for ALS and other neurodegenerative disorders….”

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43440-021-00310-7

Good luck and GOD bless,

Genentech already had a relationship with Roche - they were successful with herceptin, avastin, and other products. My company actually did a fair amount of work with them. Genentech was a fully vertically integrated company, too. All in all, I agree that $70b would be an acceptable price.

The simple answer is that despite the market volatility and the sector drop of XBI, AVXL is holding up well and is in building mode in anticipation of some good news.
That said, in order to take full advantage of that good news price getting above that top long blue horizontal line and making it support is where we want the base for the spring upward if/when that news comes. If it is huge good news then it doesn't matter nearly as much for the initial surge, but may come into play as a level for price to retest if the buying surge is short lived.
If price today and tomorrow close above and cause the 4,8and 13 ema's to stack fastest to slowest (4 on top and leading the group upward) and increase separation, that raises the odds for price to attack the top horizontal blue line and make the entire zone from bottom line to top support. It also establishes the green 100period moving average as support.
If/when price can make the brown 50period moving average support then price would be set up to make maximum usage of major news.
Also the sharper the upward angle of ema's and ma's the more support they give to price retrace and forming support levels.

If you look at the the bands, price is in the upper half of the bands and nearing the upper band so it can potentially push price upward. What is forming is increasing the odds that a breakout upward is likely to occur. The upper blue horizontal is at 9.25. Right now that upper bb is at 9.73. If/when price reaches there, if there is enough buying strength that band will turn up and price can eventually attack and turn up the purple kchannel band and that is when all the big numbers that get thrown out can finally come into focus again. There is still some resistance from 10.60-11.40 as denoted by that next longest VbP bar zone and then above that one needs to look back longer than 6 months to find resistance price lines and zones.

That is a lot, but not all that goes into the picture if one adds the use of indicators and overbought/oversold price movement. It is however sufficient to get a decent picture of the future. If price were in a down trend the same information is used in an opposite set up of the lines, moving averages and bands.

Hope that was informative and not just brain overload. Green Trades.

Obviously, this did not cover trading around a core buying and selling. If an investor is simply a hold or fold type then none of that really matters because they only look at fundamentals instead of combining it with technical analysis.

In 2009 Roche bought Genentech for $47 billion. In 2025 dollars they paid $70 billion. The big attraction for Roche was Avastin to treat cancer.
What will Anavex be worth when both blarcamesine and Anavex 3-71 are approved for dozens of CNS disease indications?
Will Anavex be worth $70 billion? Or will it be worth more than $70 billion?

https://www.tizianalifesciences.com/tiziana-life-sciences-files-investigational-new-drug-application-with-fda-for-als-phase-2-clinical-trial/

Citrati, how do you read that? What is your prediction based on all those trends and bands?

Could happen.

worth noting…

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GENENTECH-INC-12326/

Very nice close and continued building. Hoping for more follow through and making the hundred period support to close the week.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/3/5/ddgkeScreen_Shot_2025-03-05_at_9.39.25_PM.png

"Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd Makes New $243,000 Investment in Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (NASDAQ:AVXL)"

Posted by Defense World Staff on Mar 5th, 2025

A number of other large investors also recently modified their holdings of AVXL. Geode Capital Management LLC raised its stake in Anavex Life Sciences by 2.8% during the third quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 1,883,199 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock worth $10,699,000 after acquiring an additional 51,946 shares during the period. Nwam LLC bought a new position in shares of Anavex Life Sciences during the third quarter valued at approximately $5,172,000. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. raised its position in shares of Anavex Life Sciences by 2.3% during the 3rd quarter. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. now owns 665,976 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock worth $3,783,000 after purchasing an additional 14,892 shares during the period. Barclays PLC lifted its holdings in shares of Anavex Life Sciences by 70.4% in the 3rd quarter. Barclays PLC now owns 155,179 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock worth $882,000 after purchasing an additional 64,101 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Rhumbline Advisers boosted its position in Anavex Life Sciences by 2.9% during the 4th quarter. Rhumbline Advisers now owns 123,699 shares of the biotechnology company’s stock valued at $1,329,000 after purchasing an additional 3,498 shares during the period.

https://www.defenseworld.net/2025/03/05/y-intercept-hong-kong-ltd-makes-new-243000-investment-in-anavex-life-sciences-corp-nasdaqavxl.html

Thanks to bjc60 on ST.

Yes, Boi, I agree that the 3 major issues probably won't prevent Anavex from winning the day. But, they are real and will be considered at length behind closed doors - and may generate some questions from the EMA, too, along the way.

The poster I responded to asked the question and my answer was accurate, I think. I actually think that there is not enough data to make the discussion about those 3 points moot, but enough data to make the EMA decide in Anavex's favor.

16:00:00 8.73 119,269 Buy--
Another big buy at the close

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/anavex-life-sciences-AVXL/trades

....or anywhere you can get time and sales at 16:00(4PM)

Dr. Bhattacharya in his confirmation hearing says he wants to shift NIH focus to chronic diseases like obesity, Alzheimer’s and cancer. Wants free speech and open scientific dialogue.

Gee, I wonder how that might benefit Anavex Life Sciences?

There are bear arguments.
But there are not many.
And the few that there are, are very weak.
If the Mabs, with all their problems, were approved, blarcamesine should be a slam dunk!

My guess is EMA knew the trial sizes when deciding to invite Anavex to apply.

Yes, as I wrote, I think these issues can be overcome. But that is the list.

If blarcamesine lives up to its promise, AD patients taking the drug will have their lives extended by a number of years beyond present day life expectancy.

"--Closes the day with real style."--agree--great week so far--Cowen C.C. got this moving--we traded at $7.95 this past Monday--folks catching on--huge winner here !!!!

I think your list of "why not" is probably better stated as, "because there has been only one small trial for a huge indication there is not enough safety data, and, besides, there is also not enough long term data."

The central counterargument is that all of this was known at the time the EMA gave Anavex the green light to submit an MAA -- and to apply without conditions. We get some indirect support for sufficient trial size by our AD 2b/3 from an FDA drug rejection to a competitor on the basis that there were fewer than only 100 treated patients, implying a dosed arm can be sufficient at a much smaller size than the Anavex trial. And I suspect that the nature of our MOA -- a restoration of immune function -- is not, unlike the MAB's inflammatory strategy, raising health issues. We have not seen a safety concern arise in the recent S1R literature.

And while we rather recently learned the top line of the OLE, showing a long-term effect, that information may have been known in the pre submission period. (In fact, it's even better if it hadn't been known at the time of the CHMP go-ahead.) MAB competitors have not provided nearly as long an efficacy period, and I don't recall a regulatory agency criticizing a submission on that basis.

Finally, we know that the regulatory agencies are motivated to address the unmet health needs presented by the lack of an effective AD medication.

I suggest that if those items were an issue the applications would have been rejected already.
Those are issues that get looked at early on in the evaluation.

$uper finish now
Beautiful pennant today
Accumulation.

Pennant soaring upward.
Indications tutes' feeding.
Accumulation

What is the sound of
A big whale gorging on shares?
Accumulation.

120K trade
Closes the day with real style.
Accumulation.

not problems

2. not enough safety data (c'mon, there hasn't been anyone reporting significant side effects, no brain bleeding. no one has died)
3. not enough long term data (some people have been on this for 4-5 years now, that is pretty long term, longer than most with alz will live)

not sure about that: "I don't favor a future partner taking an equity stake in Anavex. I think that deal favors the partner rather than us. It's a variant of an early buyout"

It works if the standstill agreement is long enough and AVXL and partner work to maximize market for 273 and 371

Genentech is the template.

DISAGREE: The 18-24 mo standstill simply allows for value to build during initial launch and for excitement to build for buyout. FWIW, I want Anavex purchased for a premium by a company that can maximize the potential of its pipeline.

Dont want to sell in 2 years, that is a $20B deal max.

Partner can help us just as well without buying us, especially since $1 billion cash upfront will fund numerous trials without dilution for years.

Let business grow, get big and profitable. Partner does well, we do well. 273 and 371 get approved for numerous indications. Share price rises to $1249. Then a buyout at $1,500-$2,000 a share. That is why you need a 10 years standstill agreement.

AVXL closed up $0.32 with a buying volume 775,533

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/avxl/after-hours-trades?page=2&rows_per_page=20

Good luck and GOD bless,

Why wouldn't EMA approve blarcamesine?

The reasons have been put out here quite a few times:

1. only one small trial for a huge indication
2. not enough safety data
3. not enough long term data

Some people might also cite ADL endpoint not being stat sig, but I don't think that is a legit objection

I think there is a good chance the EMA will look past the above -and the PDD and the Rett trials in aggregate may answer #2.

John, where do you see these MOC numbers?
Doesn't show up on BigCharts and the like.

WHERE do you get this shite?

IF a MM Sells in the morning pop and buys back in the closing swoon
or MOC....
Did they NET Buy or Sell the stock?

It does appear AVXL may hold 8.50 ish on close.
I would have thought closer to 8.40.
almost certainly will not regain 8.75.
Can't tell much from 100 share lots.

Why wouldn't EMA approve blarcamesine? It is well known that they were reluctant to approve the Mabs. They were not impressed by the efficacy. They were troubled by safety concerns. They did not like the high cost and the ongoing administrating costs. Blarcamesine is more effective, far safer, costs less and is the daily oral form that patients prefer!
Anavex is already contacting health authorities around the world to follow up after the EMA approval. And Big Pharma are approaching Anavex asking about partnerships! Partnership and EMA approval news will create large gains for longs! Add, hold and prosper!

Unless the FUDsters, bashers, and shorts paint the tape toward the close. You forgot to add that caveat.

My guess....The MM move toward VWAP and balance before the close.
Minimal MOC.
Then again we differ on the use of MOC.

Expect AVXL to close today with well over 1 million shares purchased in anticipation of NEWS related to AVXL next week!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

Here is the daily view as of 2:10pm ET.
Lot of positive building going on. Ideal is for price to confirm above the midlines and widen the upward ema's positive stacking and further separating upward. Now to see how day ends and then the week.
Lot of sector support yesterday and today from XBI.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/3/5/dsugeScreen_Shot_2025-03-05_at_12.09.02_PM.png