Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA) Options

Another patent granted to Iovance on 1/14/2025: https://patents.justia.com/assignee/iovance-biotherapeutics-inc

Here's the detail: https://patents.justia.com/patent/12194061

OOPS. Did not hit the sell yesterday! An omen?

Analysts still seem to have a lot of question marks on the guidance. Gross Margins should continue to expand, rapidly at first but decreasing over time. They added 100 employees last quarter, assuming most were for manufacturing, salary of $80k+30% fully loaded costs, and 1 slot / employee / qtr would represent less than 5% of COGS, the rest is a spread of fixed which should diminish quickly with growth. Assumed growth rate for 2025 is 25% QoQ which is really high, but given demand ramp, improving drop rates and 56 to 70 ATC growth, should be an achievable stretch (IMO). That level of growth / margin improvement should get to cash breakeven by Q3/Q4 based on my modeling. Will see, but I view that as the inflection point... and we get 2 data read outs and EMA decision as catalysts on top of quarterly earnings. We will see how the data emerges.

Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy with a $22 price target.

https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/goldman-sachs-reiterates-buy-on-iovance-stock-following-meeting-with-management-93CH-3811217

Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Iovance stock following meeting with management
Investing.com
Editor Rachael Rajan
Analyst Ratings
Published 01/14/2025, 06:11 AM
Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Iovance stock following meeting with management

IOVA

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed their Buy rating on Iovance Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:IOVA) with a steadfast $22.00 price target. The endorsement follows a recent meeting with Iovance's management at an investor conference. The focal point of the discussion was the 2025 outlook for Amtagvi, as it enters its inaugural full calendar year of sales for melanoma treatment.

Iovance has upheld its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2024, projecting $160-165 million, aligning with Goldman Sachs' estimate of $162 million. This guidance reflects a successful Amtagvi launch, indicated by consistent patient demand, enhanced ATC operations, and improved out-of-spec rates.

Despite this positive outlook, Goldman Sachs anticipates ongoing investor discussions, particularly regarding the breakdown of Amtagvi versus Proleukin revenues leading up to the fourth-quarter earnings report. Investors are keen to dissect the fundamentals of the launch and judge the feasibility of the fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance, which stands at $450-475 million as previously announced.

Additionally, gross margins are under scrutiny as investors seek to understand the long-term profitability of the launch. While Amtagvi remains at the forefront of Iovance's 2025 strategy, Goldman Sachs is also closely watching for pipeline updates that could bolster the credibility of Iovance's TIL platform. Notable developments include expected registrational data from the IOV-LUN-202 study in second-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and from the Phase 2 IOV-END-201 study in second-line endometrial cancer, both anticipated in 2025.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

I envy your position here. Certainly excited to be able to invest much more heavily once I get a real job and wrap up this Postdoc haha.

But I too am unfazed 🫡

Well said GMH I had similar takeaways.

I got out today. Something stinks here. Got back in when it hit $7.44 a few months ago and grabbed a few moire but not playing here. Will wit and see if the $3.00 train comes in. So sad.

Holy cow. Something is not right here. Down 25% in 6 trading days.

Here is my take on the Corporate Deck Update:

Negatives:
1) Re-iterating guidance was insufficient for The Street. At Q2, they guided (mid-points) of $54M and $162.5. Given the YTD revenue, the Q4 discrete revenue would be $76.7M, but given that $58.6M was a $4.6M beat, re-iterating guidance means new discrete Q4 is $72.1M which is viewed as a significant deceleration.
2) 70 ATCs "including ATCs in final stages of readiness" is a miss. They should have never guided to the higher number as there was no upside. I am still surprised they got this close given 56 ATCs at Q3 earnings call.

Positives:
1) I think the revenue guide as a simple carry-forward rather than a true update, so I think they meet discrete Q4 revenue and come in somewhere in the $165-170M range (with a relief rally from wherever the SP is).
2) Employee count (going back across various updates);
- 2023 JPM (500+)
- Pre-approval Q4 2023 (500+)
- June 3-Q1 2024 (600+)
- Aug 9-Q2 2024 (700+)
- Nov 7-Q3 2024 (750+)
- Jan 13-JPM Update (800+)
Given Fred's Q3 comments that growth was primarily driven by capacity and capacity is limited by staffing (footnote Corp Deck), the trend seems favorable.
3) GM-201 (PD1 knockout) trial P1 is fully enrolled- reported in Nov but just noticed now. These generally take time as patients are usually done sequentially. P2 should enroll quicker as they can be treated in parallel.

Uncertain:
1) Manufacturing Milestone - Fulfill patient demand for commercial launch and clinical trials. Does this mean demand is slowing or are they are now ahead of the curve on hiring? Thinking the latter, but could be some of the former as well.

These are the facts I gleaned from the update and my take on them. Do with them what you will. I always appreciate people sharing facts and their opinion (bull or bear). I personally try to base my investing thesis on facts rather than opinion and think I can discern between the two so appreciate everyone's input.

Yikes, more liquidations..

Sorry to get you riled up. Long term it should find its ground and move up. Your focus on the long term is appreciated. No need to belabor this. Short term it’s headed lower. We all know the important milestones, potential risks and reward which lie ahead Peace.

New corporate deck: https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/f81194ff-6f65-4ed4-af92-67362eb17901

Sunman, if you're the brilliant investor that you continually suggest you are, then why did you invest in the first place and why did you apparently wait so long to sell? I continue to see what the future holds for this company, I accept the risk. You obviously didn't and you want to blame me and others for your supposed failures and losses. If that gets you through the day, so be it.

IOVA is solidly and unfortunately trading with the sector funds right now which has not been good for share price as of late. I know that, most investors here know that, and our hopes of a better share price sooner than later did not materialize. The company still exists, they're still growing revenues, and they're still expanding business operations into numerous new markets. They even issued an updated corporate deck today: https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/f81194ff-6f65-4ed4-af92-67362eb17901

If you're done with IOVA, then be done and move along.

I'll still be here one year from now - assuming Iovance hasn't been acquired by then.

Iovance will still be improving cancer patients' lives and many will even be fully cured. The revenues will continue to rise, macros will likely improve for the sector, and Iovance will also gain more attention from additional investors.

You have no knowledge of who I am and you continually display your foolishness by what you've implied as of late.

Take a vote. If the board wants me gone, I'll be gone. But I'm not going to be silent just because you see the world differently than I do. You can always ignore my comments. I don't recall asking for your approval.

BK

That was a big rant with very little substance to offer other than your recurrent biased viewpoint. Too many what ifs. Highly risky stock. Any setbacks with the trials, failure to meet expectations with revenue and spending and/or sneaky ATM cash raise will be devastating. Near term it’s headed lower. Longer term it may head higher if it mitigates many risk points. Reduce risk seems like a wise option at this time.

Sunman, let me continue on this vein. What is Iovance worth today should BP wish to acquire it? What is its terminal value? What will IOVA be trading at 1 year from now assuming they continue to meet or even slightly beat their guidance numbers. What is Iovance worth to BP if and when nsclc TIL is approved? What will IOVA be trading at after European approval is announced? How about one year after European approval is announced, along with Australia, Canada, and other foreign markets?

I'm not telling anyone when to buy a stock, I'm pointing out what I believe will be a significant winner in the coming years regardless the current share price. At $10, it's cheap. At $6, it's crazy cheap. At $3, the entire market is broken and it becomes a wild west for traders.

You and I both know full well that IOVA is getting killed by algos and the biotech sector being out of favor. It's not the result of some secret conspiracy being waged against Iovance alone. And it's certainly not because Iovance isn't succeeding. They are. Without relevant news, IOVA will continue to languish until order is restored to biotechs or some newsworthy information is released about Iovance specifically. Even assuming a mediocre return to average valuations in biotech, and with the conservative expectations offered in Iovance guidance for 2025, what will IOVA be trading at going into next year? Higher or lower? Answer honestly. Everyone here knows my answer.

You're not happy with your investing at this time? Who is? Will you be happy with your decisions one year from now? I fully believe I will be.

I get it, you're trading a stock, you want to maximize your investment dollars. But what if you're just a casual investor looking for a place to invest a few dollars and you're looking for a good growth company with a promising future? Is IOVA a good purchase right now? Does it fit that category? If I buy IOVA and put it in my IRA, will it look good 2 years from now? 10 years from now? 20 years? Neither one of us knows for sure, but I see what Iovance is doing and I believe they are a company to be reckoned with and they're going to be instrumental in improving cancer care significantly. Does that mean their stock value will go up? Yeah, probably. Tell me one place that you can invest your money where you can't lose? Spoiler alert, there is no such place.

This is not just a board for day traders, nor is it a board that necessarily needs to be reminded that things are tough in biotechs without a corresponding discussion about future value and potential. I have confidence that many investors and day traders can and hopefully do think for themselves. I also wish to share information that benefits the decisions that other investors may make regarding Iovance.

***And even more importantly, I want everyone to think of Iovance when their friends, their loved ones, or even they get that cancer diagnosis and they want to know all of their options. The word is just barely getting around now and we have a long way to go for everyone to have access to this treatment in the event that it's the best option for their specific type of cancer.

I believe Iovance will be a significant company in cancer treatment options. I have no qualms about buying IOVA at any of the prices we've seen over the past year as I expect that IOVA will be significantly higher in the coming years.

I want Iovance to succeed for all kinds of reasons, including my own selfish reason for profit on my investment.

BK

Sunman, that's where you and I must differ - I don't love anything that can't love me back. My primary advice to everyone here is to always do their own due diligence. This is a public forum and a message board. It's a great place to start and to share, but it's not the final step in making investment decisions.

So where is the wind taking us and when will its direction change? I never promised a smooth ride - its biotechs, there's no such thing as easy.

No disrespect but please stop being in love with this stock. Your viewpoint is unwittingly biased. Knowing the direction of the wind is key. I will buy it under $5 and add more closet to $.3, That’s where it is more likely headed. for now. Total capitulation of cash hungry and unprofitable biotechs is on the cards. . God may not be able to save you if they announce any bad news or setbacks during this time. The ones who will survive this assault will
rise again. I hope IOVA is one of them. If and when it does I’ll be owning it too just a lot more than before. Cashed out big time and ready for more devastation ahead.

Pay close attention to the newly awarded patents for Iovance:

https://patents.justia.com/assignee/iovance-biotherapeutics-inc

FWIW, to all of you who don't like the optimism of others, so be it. I'm on the other side of the track, I'm growing tired of all the pessimism around the biotech sector and all the complaints by day traders who don't accept the risk of what they're doing with their money.

The biotech sector is a minefield right now, and many have finally surrendered and limped away as evidenced in the price action. I'll continue to selectively buy shares in companies that I see as ultimate winners.

I guarantee I will not time the market very well and my purchases would sicken all those day traders that expect daily gains and nothing but wins. I will not look like the sharpest tool in the trading shed, but one year, two years, even three years and beyond, I expect to still be excited about my stock purchases and my eventual gains.

At any time, the market could fall in love with a stock like IOVA, I prefer to own it when it does.

Good luck to my fellow investors.

Hicham, I'm still on this ride with you.

To all, looking at outside evidence of where IOVA is relative to XBI and LABU, I challenge you all to go look at the 5 year comparison, the 1 year comparison, and even the 3 month and 1 month. What you'll find is that the game keeps taking IOVA back to the median with a tendency more toward a tie with LABU. This is why trading a stock like IOVA is so challenging (as is all trading for that matter and why most day traders lose money), you're trying to compete against computer trading and all those algos. I'm an investor who tries to focus on fundaments, but I accept that there's a lot of outside pressures that have nothing to do with the company per se.

Yes, current share price stinks, but Iovance is still building a fantastic business and delivering a winning new cancer treatment based on the testimony of thousands of people in the oncology sector. The share price doesn't reflect it yet, but it will. I can be excited about what Iovance has to offer and accept at the same time that the market value doesn't necessarily jibe with what we see as future value. In time, it will, but knowing the when is far more challenging than knowing if.

I'm ultimately responsible for my own trading decisions as are each of you. I see what's coming for Iovance. I don't know for certain when the market value will be more reflective of IOVA's fair value based on what we expect for future revenues, but I'm confident it will.

The biotech sector has been a bear and despite all that we expect for this company, IOVA still trades with the sector as well and as such has fallen out of favor. I expect the company to be wildly successful, but the market hasn't gotten to that point yet. In time, it will. If the ride is too rough, you all have control over your own investments. Your money, your rules. Buy, hold, or sell, it's your decision on what to do with your money. You can base your decision on what others may say, but that is still your decision. My money, my rules, and my decision was to buy more and hold.

Some see me as a cheerleader - I am and I'm excited for TIL therapy to continue in it's market penetration. It is one big step forward for improving cancer treatment. Iovance has many more big steps coming. The company's success will prove to be a reward to shareholders and even more importantly a potential improvement or cure for 10's of thousands of cancer patients that were running out of options.

Good luck to the longs.

Total nonsense. I may liquidate my holdings and wait!

You are always too optimistic. Bio stocks will be getting killed with rates flat to up and shorts in control. Mid Feb is a long time until earnings so they can play with it more than you think. Someone I respect is saying they could take it to $3 this spring. Yep hard to believe but I am prepared and I will probably hold my nose and add a little bit more at that time. This still could be a $50 stock in a few years but this is not the environment.

 I am still holding to 125k shares and trust me it was painful to see the drop from 10 to 6.4, 0.5 million usd wipped out. Did I sell ?


 NO.


I am still very confident that we will end up at 15 to 17 by year end and > 20 by 26. Nothing has changed and sooner or later EV fundamentals will prevail: The breakeven point will be reached, sales growth will continue, management will contine exceeeding analysts consensus,  good news will come from other geographies and clinical trials... 


I just wish I had more money to buy in yesterday. It was painful to watch without being able to buy.


I am looking forward to text all you all soon when the share price starts to recover. Don't give up.

The Pied Piper of this biars is still wearing Rosy glasses even though the house is burning down like the California fires. This is smelling rotten. I sold a decent chunk at $7.2 yesterday. TGIF.

The worst stock purchases in 2024 is IOVA. I am not optimistic about its price action near term either. So this is now a bag holder. It’s still bottomless. The Lies Piper of this board is still wearing Rosy glasses and can see no wrong even though the house is brining down. I smell conflict of interest. IOVA is smelling rotten right now.

Sold. Took a small loss. Did not like the price action. The ask was AGGRESSIVELY loaded to drive price down. It appears that with the new admin that Bios will continue downward. 6.50 is a nice fib retracement. But today was not the day. There is ALOT of money to be made here. Just not today. Market is going through a repricing of extended interest rates with no cuts which really hurts bio. But, the bottom will be found. Do not listen to anyone on stocktwits or even here. There is way to much uneducated guesses. Of course, it always feels good to post that "you bought more" and "this is a gift", but price action is price action. Now. Wayne rothbaum is in at 6.50 so I believe that is a level of interest. But until, a level is found and held then it is not a trade or investment.

So you are saying day drinking helps? Guess it can't hurt.

GMH, IOVA has required some thick skin and an occasional shot of something strong, and not always to celebrate. Here's hoping for some celebratory reasons soon, but in the meantime and to your point, the entire sector feels a bit broken right now and with it, IOVA.

Other than the price, nothing has changed in my reasons to own IOVA and build a larger position, my impeccable timing on my buys certainly could have been better.

Good luck.

Nothing useful to add here for now, just wish I could buy more. Have a lovely weekend longs 😄

Agree... this is day trading HF algos. I expect we recover some into the close as they reverse their positions.... still a train wreck.

Algos are on. Outside bollinger band and oversold on daily. Bollinger band at 6.72. expect a bounce to there at some time today.

This is a damn train wreck. This is about as close to capitulation as I have ever come.... not selling, but I just cannot watch any more.

OH FCK!

I have come to realize that it is impossible to ever call a bottom in this stock.

I am long here.

OOOOPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Surfkast, agreed, IOVA is nearing a reversal. Options and max pain numbers support your thinking. Plenty of reasons that we'll see a steady rise in IOVA share price over the coming few months. Q4 will likely beat estimates and I do expect some increase in the 2025 guidance. It's still bumpy due to the biotech sector and other factors like the 10 yr, but I see no reason to think IOVA won't be much higher in the not too distant future. Good luck.

Good Morning Everyone. Will be adding today as I believe this is going to start climbing back up.

GMH, thanks. As you stated, 40 minutes in offered some insights from a doc that I had not heard before from the standard info that's been shared on other TIL info videos. Thank you for sharing. The sooner the better is the common thread. Here's hoping for frontline or at least docs that don't hesitate to move to TIL asap.

Trying again:

GMH, no luck with the video, it didn't play. Try again if possible with a different link or some such. I'll delete this message and your other message if you so wish once you have that glitch corrected. Thanks.

Since the markets are closed, here is a good discussion on Amtagvi by the the University of Kansas - Cancer Center. First 40 minutes is oncologist discussing TIL (this is a repeat of a lot of other presentations), but starting at 40 minutes, you get the surgeon's view which is quite interesting... also a lot of side comments gives good insights into the processes, procedures and complications.

Hospitals and clinics join the fight against melanoma with Iovance's TIL therapy. Networking and outreach with community hospitals across the country will further expand the market for Amtagvi. More of our ATCs and hospital partners will increase their marketing campaigns to educate potential patients of new treatment options. Because of these efforts, I anticipate updated guidance at the Q4 suggesting an increase in the patient numbers and total revenue that could be expected in 2025. Here's one more piece of evidence:

https://www.medstarhealth.org/news-and-publications/news/breakthrough-cancer-treatment-offers-new-hope-to-patients-with-metastatic-melanoma

https://medstar.app.box.com/s/z7p1da4xdmhmy0bbdx85pq95xbyz8qrw

FWIW, another patent granted to Iovance. The latest one has been tracking since 2019, but one more arrow in the quiver:

https://patents.justia.com/patent/11667890

Feel free to review some of their patent portfolio:

https://patents.justia.com/search?q=iovance&page=5

7.00 held to a tee. I have a feeling that bios will be under pressure until they see how the new administration policies will affect them.

Big level here. Testing year time frame lows.

Iovance continues to build their staff for Europe. Check out this job opening recently posted: https://iovance.bamboohr.com/careers/1659

Good luck to the longs.

How about a little Amtagvi history. We're coming up on the 1 year anniversary of the Amtagvi approval. This first year may have been a bit choppy, but the company is continuing to grow and Amtagvi is most certainly finding its footing. It's easily on track to generate over a billion dollars in revenues within the next couple of years making it Iovance's first blockbuster drug. Others will follow.

Here's your history lesson: https://www.drugs.com/history/amtagvi.html

Here's a bonus: Just a reminder, the future of TIL is that it will be prescribed more often and better patient selection will lead to better results. Iovance has only scratched the surface with Amtagvi:

Good luck.

Sunman, why the fearmongering? IOVA and many biotechs continue to track closely with the sector.

Biotechs have been a bit out of favor over several years. Lots of great companies are sitting at low share prices including Iovance. Lots of bargains out there but there's still uncertainty of when the sector will turn around. The 10 year is also adding pressure. Throw some A.I. into a pill, and you'd be rolling in cash.

When comparing XBI with IOVA, it's fairly well matched since Amtagvi approval with a few momentary exceptions of news driven price reactions. Now that Iovance is producing revenue, investors are looking for indications of when it will be profitable. It's possible that we'll see our first profitable quarter by Q4 of this year. IOVA has not moved up as many, including me, expected over this initial period of commercialization. That said, I see numerous reasons to remain invested in IOVA for what continues to be great growth in the coming months and years. When I compare IOVA to similar stocks, the picture looks the same. No worries at this time regardless the current share price.

Good luck to the longs - no idea if this applies to you, Sunman.

Did they miss Q4 target? Someone knows. Share price remains under heavy pressure. Also, sneaky ATM cash raise remains an overhang. Common shareholders are the only ones screwed since Lifileucel received accelerated approval in Feb 2024. Post approval it’s down by over 20%. It appears the downtrend In share price may continue. What can reverse this trend?