GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares (NVD) Share Price

The bigger the balloon grows the greater the amount of hot air needed to keep it inflated.


Cheddar Flow
@CheddarFlow
·
2h
$NVDA $177M Worth of Bullish Premium So Far Today ✅

The total amount of premium $NVDA has seen recently is unparalleled to any other name, it's not even close

Stopped out at yesterday's buy in price. Turned right around and bought January puts which are bargain-priced even lower today. I sense the opportunity to buy cheap puts will disappear shortly after the election, if not sooner.

Here's the full clip of how Nortel and Cisco imploded in 2000 due to their vendor financing/roundtrip financing.

This is what $NVDA was doing with $SMCI. https://t.co/aAX4zI2kAs pic.twitter.com/fFxXPkG3DT— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 26, 2024
@FinanceLancelot

As soon as they're done looking at Nvidia's 3rd largest customer $SMCI for "accounting irregularities" they'll be coming after Nvidia.

Oct 9, 2024Still no financials for SMCI?

@FinanceLancelot
There won't be, they cooked the books. The company is done.

Does Findlay Park Partners LLP have concerns about Nvidia's accounting?

"The technology heavyweights that powered this year’s rally in US stocks are no longer attractive to Findlay Park Partners LLP, whose fund has outperformed 86% of peers.

The fund, which has about $11.3 billion in assets and counts UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Accenture Plc among its top holdings, sold down its stake in Nvidia Corp. to zero in the third quarter, according to a note sent to clients and seen by Bloomberg News.

The chipmaker’s shares dropped in that period, while the other two stocks rallied at least 15%.

Nvidia — a major beneficiary of the artificial intelligence buzz — accounted for 5% of total holdings at one point this year, the note showed.

The asset manager also reduced its stake in Microsoft Corp. — its biggest position for much of the past decade — to 3% as of end-September from 4.8% in August, according to a fund fact-sheet.

The Dublin-domiciled fund invests mainly in the US. It has returned about 29% in the past year compared with 16% by peers, and with lower volatility relative to the benchmark Russell 1000 Net 30% Total Return Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 2023, it outperformed 90% of peers...." kristen shaughnessy
@kshaughnessy2
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/outperforming-11-billion-findlay-park-fund-trims-big-tech-stake

picked up a few down here myself today. NVDA looking exhausted right now w/ a fickle herd ready to dump once it starts dropping.

Loading ZONE!
$1.42 or better, the time is short’

NVDA puts bargain priced today...picked up some Feb 2025s...

The pre-election market shenanigans are too hard to call on the daily inverse trades...only buying options at the moment...when they go on sale like today🙂

These overvalued NVDA prices are dangerous. Folks have no idea what they're getting into, or what's coming. Same with SMCI. Exit liquidity being generated before DOJ does their thing? That in itself could another legal issue to be addressed.

Insiders know:

@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, insiders have sold a whopping $1.85 billion worth of stock or ~11 million shares year-to-date, the most since at least 2020.

Insider sales in 2024 are 5 TIMES higher than the $350 million seen in 2023.

This comes after CEO Jensen Huang recently completed the sale of 6 million shares under a pre-determined sales plan.

Mark Stevens, a member of Nvidia's board has also filed to sell 3 million shares after he has already sold 1.6 million so far this year.

Nvidia’s insiders are cashing in

Bought 400 see what happens when NVDA dumps again.

NVDL -letting off some here, to cash. $$

NVDL- started filling 8% discounts (daily)

Back to cash, PSQ, SKRE, UVIX

This market is going to be wild with selling.

That NVDL bounced paid nicely!

Moving to NVDL for the bounce.
Nice run up for NVD!

And it always ends, 🐑🐑🐑 being slaughtered

$SMCI now skydiving without a parachute...ties to NVDA

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175143260

https://justdario.com/2024/09/here-comes-the-panic-but-no-worries-it-will-be-very-slow-at-first/

Great opportunity to get loaded up. Jet can suck it!

$$!!
Some of the comments over at NVDA
I’m seriously shaking my head at the pure lack of intelligence from some.

Loading $1.79 and lower

Algorithms running wild prior to trading session open...it's going to be interesting to watch derivatives bid meet real selling...

BOJ will cave to market and political pressure. It's their turn this evening...BOJ policy has been exact opposite of FED policy.
@DarioCpx
what we are seeing is the result of BOJ + FED tag team coordination to pump stocks as much as they can so all those that need out from JPY carry trades find liquidity (article below for more details).

stocks reacted positively right after the FED cut, but the selling pressure was so strong the BOJ had to unleash a huge JPY money printing kraken to flood the market with liquidity and heavy lift stocks back up
https://justdario.com/2024/09/what-if-banks-are-coordinating-with-the-fed-to-liquidate-tens-of-billions-of-troubled-jpy-carry-trade-positions/

Glad we have the FAKE FED rate cut out of the way. Futures are signaling strength so far in extended but I wont buy it.
Gonna be blood this season!
Choose not to participate except poaching and scalping.

@FinanceLancelot
$NVDA's 3rd largest customer $SMCI won't be able to file their 10-K even after the 15 day grace period due to "accounting irregularities."

If true, this would confirm $NVDA's vendor financing/round trip financing is imploding.

When SMCI filed Form 12b-25 for a late 10-K they did NOT check the box under Part II of the form.

This indicates that they do NOT expect to file the 10-K within the 15-day extension period.

@FinanceLancelot
Jensen Huang is selling $NVDA as fast as he "legally" can.

Look at the amount of selling compared to the past 5 years.


taking out whatever he can before the music stops??

I think you're right. I'm not trading anything this week. Acquired some Oct puts on NVDA and META and that's it for now...

I’m letting off NVD a bit as it’s hitting upper levels of the day.
UVIX sold earlier,(some).
This week can do anything. Powder dry is my strategy from here on out.

Next week is an important week to watch:

The FED announces its interest rate decision Wednesday.

Japan announces on Friday.

And $SMCI missed the grace period for its 10k - so keep an eye on that and $NVDA.

Reuters:
"Investors were also looking to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision next Friday, when it is expected to keep its short-term policy rate target steady at 0.25%.

BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday the central bank must raise rates to at least 1% as soon as the second half of the next fiscal year, but added that it would likely do so slowly and in several stages.

"The BOJ is perceived to be going in the different direction than the Fed - in 180-degree opposite direction," Velis said, adding that whether and when the BOJ raises rates remains an open question..."

http://Forex.com
"The Japanese Yen has rallied a staggering 13% against the US Dollar over the past three-months with USD/JPY plunging to a fresh yearly low on Friday.

The decline takes price into a major technical support zone and the focus is on possible inflection off this mark heading into next week’s highly anticipated Fed rate decision.

Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly & daily technical charts.."

$1.78 going in hard!

Interesting
He is unprofessional usually.
Thanks!

This might explain why NVDA board has been quiet:

 "Suspended"

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=31528

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The "NVIDIA effect" visualized:

Want a crystal ball? Continue watching Nikkei. This is how the Nikkei closed earlier, clearly this market doesn’t hold up very well as soon as real sellers show up. No need for further comments

Just in case - fasten your seatbelts

Traders are so sure about the incoming FED rate cut next week that T-Bills are now fully pricing it. However if the BLS “political support” for the current US administration is fading and, like it did with the NFP last week (post below), the BLS decides to show markets a CPI number closer to the real one in the economy and hence well above analysts expectations, you better be ready for one of those shocks that don’t happen very often. 👀

Not only it will show how the FED hands are now tied behind its back but it will make clear to everyone a rate cut would be just a political move that goes against what these markets need to stay afloat (flaring up #inflation will sink the US economy even more too) - more details here: #JustDarioDaily

⚠️ IF THE #FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS ⚠️$USD $JPY $EUR #stocks #macro

Article 👇🏻https://t.co/twZpiNK2cs— JustDario 🏊‍♂️ (@DarioCpx) August 20, 2024

Beware -
@realDonaldTrump
vs
@KamalaHarris
debate will come up before the CPI and if the VP doesn’t perform well many traders might decide to anticipate the move with the related effects likely already visible during Asian hours tomorrow. @DarioCpx

NVDA Chart:

That's the week. It was the worst week for Tech stocks in over four years, since March 2020. NVDA magnifying the fall.

This is the chart of the week by @SuburbanDrone:

lol. I just seen what you're talking about. I usually have the echo chamber on ignore. The only time I interact w/ the echo chamber is if I'm bored, otherwise I'm too focused on my goals. I don't engage in battles that don't matter, or exchange insults, or argue w/ fools.

Eagles soar above and don't henpeck with the chickens all day. Though sometimes I'll ruffle some feathers, but I use news articles focused on NVDA, as opposed to personal insults. If it has no impact on my destiny, I ignore it and laugh at off. Nothing but fodder bait for fools.

Actually, last night was brutal. Nikkei was down 4%! NVDA trades overseas too. Futures were down. The echo gang doesn't pay attention to things like that, or understand how it impacts NVDA.

Wondering what BOJ/Nikkei will do this evening...

Asian markets wrecking $nvda last night:

Once NVDA breaks $100, it's game over. I think it's going to be a long night ahead for the BOJ. It looks like both, JPY Carry trade and NVDA unwind, are in play at the same time now.

Dis-Inversion of yield curve on lowest job openings in years and retail traders are pushing markets. If not red by end of day, I suspect tomorrow will be a deep red day as big money sells or shorts. The algos will flip.

There's some on NVDA thinking this is a good time to jump in. They didn't do their homework!

We are right on the cusp of NVDA shifting to the downside in a big way.

Blessings Brother

I see you have encountered the same BS as I over at NVDA board.
A few of those guys are whimpering cowards, but luckily there are some professionals and decent people.
Keep your chin up.
It’s lessons like these last few weeks that help open their eyes to how we trade these bloated pigs called publicity held companies.
They, (almost all), are deceptively corrupt.
Blessings of Christ!

Probably right.
I’m lowering share counts on a few. (Fed junk is looming)

Up almost 20% today. May be a gapper tomorrow morning after Asian markets do their thing.

15%
The NvDA board is full of broken dreamers.

NVD.............................https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p86431144783

It's highly abnormal for a $3 trillion stock to have 50% swings. It may prove imprudent to hold a stock like NVDA that is more volatile than MSTR. History has shown that external factors impact NVDA price more than internal factors(permabulls focus).

The JPY Carry trade is the current wild card that, as we saw at the beginning of this month, can easily spoil any plan to keep the status quo.

Looking to acquire Sept-Dec PUTS this week.

Nikkei was closed Friday. - I'm curious how the Nikkei responds to what the BOJ and Fed just did. JPY is at 144...

1.74$ sold also!
Out

Sold $1.72
See ya next week!

I’m shocked how many are the blind sheep to the slaughter. If you even speak to them about caution, the mocking and ridiculing is immediately apparent.
Sad really.
Gl

BTW, that post is Bearish for Nvidia, not for NVD 2xshort.

It indicates the crashes that followed each rally, such as the set up now:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174951612

Mac10@SuburbanDrone - "As of yesterday this is now the largest 10 day gain for Momentum Tech in 18 years of ETF history.

As we see, the next three largest rallies going back to the pandemic, all imploded (crashed).

February 2021 was particularly spectacular."

I think this record "melt-up" rally will be followed by a record crash. Could happen any day now, but I think the risk is highest towards the end of this month going into Sept.

Once NVDA bubble pops, that's it for the AI bubble. All this rally did was set things up for a bigger crash.

I picked up some NVD shares right after the close.

I Completely expect all kinds of growth in these AI/iOt technologies but there is still a HUGE bump in the road before that really gets its next momentous move up.

The only problems outside of shitty valuations, …everything else in the world.
Blessings

"Nvidia earnings are next week (Aug. 28th). The entire AI super bubble is now dependent upon one company as SMCI and Dell imploded over margin concerns. And the cloud service providers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGLE) imploded over growth concerns.

This is already tied for the biggest earnings-driven melt-up since the AI bubble started."

Mac10 Chart: