Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAL) Share Price

He says current common holders will only get 5-10% of the company more or less.

Paulson said no such thing. Paulson said the government would own 90-95% of the common and he mentioned his JPS stake. If you read between the lines he's telling you the same thing I've been saying for years....the SPS get around 90+% and the JPS would get the rest (sans a small gift to legacy common).

DEWD, $GME~ Gamestop, can run from $2 to $400 PPS in bankruptcy. That's not reality but it happened then it returned to reality. $FMCC~ $FNMA~ with $Billion$ in cash and quarterly profits is worth $400 pps while trading for $3. That's not reality but it happened and it will return to reality coz that's what the market always does.

Trade accordingly

Shut your pie hole so people don't get shit all over them.

Queer for Catman much?

The total capital requirement of $283 billion is even higher than in the proposal.
Despite most comments that were submitted on the proposed rule finding the required capital too high, the final rule actually increases risk-based required capital by another 8 percent, or $20 billion (all figures herein as of June 30, 2020). The comments from industry sources lacked some credibility, of course, in that all beneficiaries of the mortgage system, in their own self-interest, prefer low capital requirements in order to keep mortgage credit as inexpensive as possible. However, more technical commenters (for instance, Andrew Davidson, who submitted a 17-page comment letter) also found the required capital too high. I fully concur — it is absolutely well above what is needed to support a policy of having the same capital required by other systemically important financial institutions for the same risk (which I dub “SIFI-consistency”). It is true that determining what level of capital is SIFI-consistent is difficult, given the dramatically different business models of the GSEs compared to banks. (For example, the risk to a SIFI bank from holding a mortgage loan is far higher than if a GSE held the same loan given that, unlike the bank, the GSE issues both a pass-through mortgage-backed security on it, almost wholly eliminating liquidity and interest rate risk, and a CRT, which eliminates most of its credit risk. Therefore, much less capital is required of a GSE than a SIFI bank when holding the same mortgage loan, while still retaining SIFI-consistency.) But that’s no excuse for the capital rule being so far off, and the final rule increasing it further is hard to fathom. In aggregate, the right number for required SIFI-consistent capital is, I estimate, in the $175 billion range (or about $100 billion less) on today’s combined $6.3 trillion GSE balance sheet.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/fhfas-final-gse-capital-rule-little-credibility-and-short-shelf-life

I'll take the Fifth - Hand it over

Even Don Layton says $283 billion is ridiculous.

The total amount of capital required, based upon the higher of a complex risk-based calculation and a simple leverage requirement (the latter being a set percentage of assets, regardless of the riskiness of those assets), was far too high at $283 billion, in particular being inconsistent with the results of the annual stress tests. This was due to the inclusion of several large, judgmentally-determined buffers (i.e. they were calculated not as a result of quantitative analysis but by the somewhat arbitrary judgment of FHFA officials). As I previously stated, based upon GSE 2019 balance sheets, I estimate the right number was in the $150-175 billion range.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/newly-proposed-changes-gse-capital-rule-will-eliminate-harmful-distortions

So you admit they are lies? Tightwad.

Tier 1 capital is literally defined as common stock, disclosed reserves, and retained earnings. Do a quick google search if you don’t believe me. “What is tier 1 capital” should get you what you need

2.5% of $4.3 trillion = $107.5 billion minus $90.5 billion = $17 billion ( tier 1 capital 2.5% of total adjusted assets).


And if you convert the $19B preferred - we are beyond the 2.5% now.

Its probably going to take 1-2 years to go through all the steps needed to fully release - and in that time Fannie should continue to add cash. That should be more than enough to meet a reasonable risk-based minimum capital requirement.

"The future is NOW!"
George Allen

Nats

And don't forget - just to prove it - we have passed (crushed actually) all the annual stress tests. Release us already!!

Nats

Or What? Huh? Or What?

Equity price increases in the secondary market (capital/stock markets) does not count for Tier 1 capital ... those equity price increases go directly into our pockets. Although, increased equity prices DOES elevate market confidence in the companies - allowing them to tap captial markets easier in the future. More importantly, the way the government originally stole the companies' capital creating their SPS, the repayment arrangements, counting repayments as only dividends, how they have conducted the fraudulent c'ship - side-stepping the c'ship's mandate - and the massive increase in capital requirements were all designed to put us in this very predicament where we'd never be able to meet these capital obligations.

That's why it is essential to call out ALL of the thievery to force them to lower the capital rule percentage to meet a level commensurate with the companies' business and market risks, force them to end the NWS without increases in liquidation preference, and to return the stolen captial above the original commitment. All of the above executed rightly and appropriately negates ANY need for a capital raise. The government should be transparent, stating they will execute the above, and over the next year to two release the companies ON THEIR OWN without the need to grease the palms of Wall Street. Leave the capital markets to put their money to more urgent and growing areas like AI, machine learning, biotech, and crypto related applications. Plenty of profit there for everyone.

EDIT: I only get one post per day and this one is running out of time to edit. Anyway, more tomorrow, but the FED and others reg agencies have already spoken of changes in the definitions and classifications of mortgages and mortgage instruments as part of tier one capital which should also give the twins a boost.

Thanks for this response that makes sense. But all they have to do to increase tier 1 capital is release the 2 and common shares going up to $20-30+ will raise $20b+ per company.

Learn to embed your stupid x posts on the board so people don't have to click your garbage.

Quit spreading lies about Calabria.

"The Companies are not banks and should not be required to hold bank like capital, they do not run the same risk as banks."

The risk, for the most part is with the bans and the loans they make. F&F require the banks to bundle quality mortgages that they then buy with a tiny percentage that may go bad. The risk is significantly different. With the 2.5% figure, we are, essentially, there!

The $280B is some of Calabria's bullshit, I guess.

Good to see your post, hope all is well with you and cousin Arnold. Thanks for writing the truth, way too many posts straight out of fantasy land

Michael

I will answer for General Mao because he will come up with some baloney.

Do you want to be rich, wealthy, or super wealthy? If you sell now, you can call yourself rich by most standards. I wouldn't say you are wealthy yet but holding could become wealthy if not super wealthy.

7 figures . . . . mid 8 figures . . . . 9 figures+

The Companies are not banks and should not be required to hold bank like capital, they do not run the same risk as banks."

Every financial "expert" knows that very fact but tend to abstain from the intent of action which plays into the scenario of "let's keep them compressed in conservatorship forever". Requiring them to have $1 in capital for each $1 they have in MBS value should have been used in Jack Nicholson's One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest. That's what seems to be what someone wants.

Responding to 2 different posts today

1-Capital- GSE's already have enough capital (see stress test numbers) and it's going to keep going up. New FHFA/Treasury head can change anything cat man did with the cement shoes of capital required. Cat man was evil and so was Mnuchin. Actions speak louder than words.
New Admin will make quick work of this hopefully and we will be released by end of 2025 or sooner with dividends starting again for common.

2-Share price will take care of itself once back on a real exchange. Turn on those dividends so I don't have to spend the nest egg. Yeehaw

Go FnF

Tier 1 capital refers to Fannie’s equity capital and disclosed reserves. It is used to measure the company’s capital adequacy.

Fannie Mae Latest 10Q September 30, 2024
Page 64

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/53651/display

Equity $90.5 billion
Total Assets $4.3 trillion

2.5% of $4.3 trillion = $107.5 billion minus $90.5 billion = $17 billion ( tier 1 capital 2.5% of total adjusted assets).

Fannie is $17 billion short of the leverage capital requirement. This amount does not include the risk-based minimum capital requirement.

Again, Form 10K December 31, 2023
Page 13-14

Both leverage and risk-based minimum capital requirements. Requirements to exit conservatorship. The risk-based requirements push the % amount upward beyond 2.5%. The Companies are not banks and should not be required to hold bank like capital, they do not run the same risk as banks.

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50336/display

Thanks for the link Rick.

According to Analyst - current capital requirement is $ 280 bn.

$ 147 bn current capital
$ 57 bn earnings in the next two years
Proforma equity in two years : $ 204 bn

$ 280 bn - $ 204 bn = $ 76 bn additional capital needed. If JPS are converted the amount needed would be around $ 55 bn.

Speculation that next FHFA Director will be Jonathan McKernan

LMAO Mr. Michael! Good for you! These trolls that pop in once and awhile have no response to that. Have a great holiday!

If I sell today I am up $6.8 million...should I?

You have an interesting perspective.
Lets me think about it.

Michael 

3% of 3.5T is $105B. Sooo

My understanding is the core capital requirement is based upon the amount of MBS guaranteed which makes it a moving target that generally increases with expansion so as retained earnings grows, we need to focus on the rate of percentage of closure between core capital and minimum core capital requirement. That said, this doesn't mean the 280B number is correct.

Form 10K December 31,2023
Page 13-14

Both leverage and risk-based minimum capital requirements. Requirements to exit conservatorship. The risk-based requirements push the % amount upward beyond 2.5%. The Companies are not banks and should not be required to hold bank like capital, they do not run the same risk as banks.

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50336/display

Truth is:
If Trump really jumps onto our side,
$20 for FNMA is within the realm
of possibility at lease by the end of 2025

Where are they getting that $280B number from? Seems a lot higher than anything I’ve seen. Fannie is only $17B away from their 107b cap requirement. Freddie is like 20 something billion away. Unsure where that crazy number was pulled from.

WOOHOO, YOUR ALIVE !
Great to see ya old speed boat captain hows the old girl floating???? You still have plenty of room in the boats hull for more fannie mae shares? You better load the boat with Fannie and Freddie commons my friend they are heading to the moon $$$$$$$$$$

And DJT has Al Capone's problem!!

Not a bad day at all
Freddie down 3 cents
Fannie down 3 cents
that's nothin'
Come Monday
we soar through the Door
$4 by next Friday - fish day

Maybe we should stop posting here all together. It’s not fun having spies knowing your every move.

And there are spies, so keep the secret information, secret.

We are the media now like Elon says.

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1861500911400690136

What's good about the money- losing CRT program?

The idiots acknowledge that:
1) FnF can earn $57 billion in 2 years.
2) Bank-like capital requirements aren't applicable to what FnF do.
YET, they are calculating their ROI in single digits. They were already earning $20 billion annually when their combined equity was only $6 billion.

The $75 billion is what they expect needs to be raised in an IPO/SPO in 2 years to meet Calabria's capital requirements for release.

It's only shareholders and secret government agents here. On X I can reach politicians and the media.

Tom and Jerry..meh, all bones no meat.

I already know what is going to happen.

you love posting on twitter

you love posting on twitter

Nice imagination son, not even close to reality. We have to stick with facts and the GSE commons ever going that high is Ludacris. I expect you know this though and want to dump some underwater shares.

Fannie & Freddie are projected to earn another $50 billion by the end of 2026, so if the current cap requirement of roughly $280 billion is unchanged, F & F would have roughly $200 billion in capital and would hypothetically need to raise $75 billion more to be considered "fully capitalized."

Start at the 47 minute mark.  Pretty good video.  I did not understand the $75 billion amount.  Anyone ?

Fannie Mae - All The Way
Freddie Mac - Load Up and Don't Look Back
Trump is sympathetic with the Pain the Conservatorship has caused,
and will be our help in restoring our expectancies to Pre-Conservatorship.

"FNMA is going to $5 soon. Load up, baby!"

Oh? Define "soon" if you would.

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1862517524459659596

no prediction
for a trade?
buy the momentum
decide its time for a switch
??????????????

Five Days

FNMAS up 6%
FNMA sort of flat

Lets guess the bottom s up

no
hes a tranny from thailand

Burp

$Booooom ! $D.O.G.E. w $Bill Ackman ! $Level II $Green !