PARIS, March 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Investing tens of
millions of dollars in works by Beeple or Banksy may seem
extravagant today, but acquiring the most expensive artworks is
statistically a winning strategy. Academic studies[1]
have shown that a masterpiece effect does indeed exist on
the art market: the most expensive works continue to gain more
value than the rest of the market. This is corroborated by the
analysis conducted by Artprice's valuation service – Artpricing –
on the five top-selling artworks in 1999.
"By following the five most expensive masterpieces of 1999,
Artprice finds that what was considered 'exorbitantly
expensive' 22 years ago is no longer considered as such
today, explains thierry Ehrmann, President and Founder of
Artmarket.com and its Artprice department.
"Imagine that in the first quarter of 2021, you acquired the
Boticelli portrait, Beeple's NFT and the three paintings by
Basquiat, Banksy and Picasso. How much will these works be worth in
a quarter of a century? The future will tell us which are the best
operations, but experience so far suggests that a strategy of
buying the most expensive works pays the highest
dividends".
The 5 most expensive works at auction in 1999 vs.
Artpricing's low estimates in 2021
- Paul CÉZANNE (1839-1906) - Curtain, jug and fruit bowl
(c.1893-1894)
1999: $60,502,500 → 2021:
$120,000,000
- Pablo PICASSO (1881-1973) - Woman seated in a garden
(1938)
1999: $49,502,500 → 2021:
$200,000,000
- Pablo PICASSO (1881-1973) - Nude in a black armchair
(1932)
1999: $45,102,500 → 2021:
$115,000,000
- Georges SEURAT (1859- 1891) - Paysage, l'île de la Grande
Jatte
(1884)
1999: $35,202,500 → 2021:
$35,000,000
- Paul CÉZANNE (1839-1906) - Kettle and fruits
(c.1888-1890)
1999: $29,476,000 → 2021:
$60,000,000
Cézanne's still lifes have doubled in value
Curtain, jug and fruit bowl (c.1893-1894) was
purchased for $60.5 million on
10 May 1999 in New York, well above Sotheby's estimated range
($25 - 35 million). Twenty years
later, this is still the record price for Paul Cézanne at auction.
But that doesn't mean its value has contracted.
Six months later, a smaller still life, entitled
Bouilloire et fruits (Kettle and fruits) (1888-1890),
fetched $29.5 million; it was among
the top 5 fine art auction results of 1999 and also substantially
exceeded its estimated range ($15m -
20 million). Its current value is more or less known, since the
work sold on 13 May 2019 at
Christie's New York for
$59.3 million.
The price of Paul Cézanne's still lifes has thus doubled since
1999. This has been confirmed by several other examples, including
Still Life (c.1890) purchased for $3.8 million at Sotheby's in New York on 11 November
1999 and resold for $8.1
million on 14 November 2017 by
the same auction house, generating a capital gain of +110%.
Resales within shorter periods suggest that Paul Cézanne's
prices essentially rose at the very beginning of the 21st century.
Acquired for $18 million in June
2000 at Christie's in London, his Nature morte aux
fruits et pot de ginger (c. 1895) sold for $37 million at Sotheby's New York on 7 November
2006.
In view of these results, it is reasonable to estimate that
Cézanne's Curtain, jug and fruit bowl (c.1893-1894) could
fetch around $120 to 130 million
today, while the value of his Kettle and fruits painting
(c.1888-1890) is probably still around $60
million (its sale price in May
2019).
Picasso still more expensive, but Seurat's values look
flat
Woman seated in a garden (1938) is one of Picasso's best
paintings not yet owned by a museum and it could well be worth over
$200 million today. By way of
comparison, a painting of equal importance, Women of
Algiers (Version 'O') (1955)
was acquired for $32 million in
November 1997 and resold for
$179 million in 2015.
Nude in a Black Armchair (1932) purchased in 1999 has a
twin work on the market: same title, same year of creation, same
dimensions, same subject (one could be mistaken for thinking they
were the same painting). However, in May
2010, the price of this twin work reached $106.5 million. It therefore seems reasonable to
estimate the current value of each of the two works at around
$120 - $150
million.
On the other hand, the value of Georges Seurat's Paysage, Île
de la Grande Jatte (1884) has probably not changed much in 22
years. The work still holds the artist's auction record, but unlike
Paul Cézanne's still lifes, which have doubled in value, recent
Seurat results suggest the value of this painting hasn't evolved
that much.
In May 2018, La rade de
Grandcamp (1885), a canvas of the same dimensions as
Paysage, Île de la Grande Jatte (1984) and of the same
quality, reached $34 million at
Christie's in New York. This
result suggests that collector demand for Seurat's works has
remained roughly constant over the past 22 years.
In conclusion, the combined purchase value of the five top
results of 1999 was $219.8 million,
and, according to the analysis conducted by Artprice's Artpricing
service, the current low estimate for the value of this group of
works is around $530 million.
Images :
[https://imgpublic.artprice.com/img/wp/sites/11/2021/03/1-Artmarket-Artprice-Evolution-of-the-portfolio-1999-vs-2021.png]
[https://imgpublic.artprice.com/img/wp/sites/11/2021/03/2-Paul-Cezanne-Rideau-cruchon-et-compotier.png]
1. Renneboog L. & Spaenjers C. (2009). Buying Beauty: On
Prices and Returns in the Art Market. Discussion Paper 2009-004,
Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and
Economic Center.
Copyright 1987-2021 thierry Ehrmann
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