Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN) Options

Most disturbing are the pathetic sales numbers out
of Europe. Management always brings up that the
potential market is huge and the exclusivity protection
is to 2039. My opinion has always been that only a
BP BO will change this dynamic. Certainly Denner
must understand this. I hope that SDL is correct in
what he has put together. Each year that goes by
without a BP BO seems to weaken the BO value,
not strengthen it. Will that change? Can the new
formulations be a game changer? Only Denner
may know the answer. Right now the best clue we
might have is Sarissa buying more stock and the buyback
actually being launched. Until then we may be DITW.

Thanks will do.

North, No. Hikma is still using invalidity as part of the defense.
Sleven,

That's the other shoe that will drop just like they did in the previous MARINE Patents trial. Only this time we hope our counsel will be ready for schenanegans like cropped tables. 

A settlement is not a rational strategy.

If a pre trial settlement serves Denner's near term interests, there will be a settlement. End of story. Amarin quit being a "rational company" when it became a hedge fun play thing under full control by Denner and his merry Board of pirates.

I don't know DMC? We seen our share of cheerleaders on this thread for sure. Probably most of us at one point or another. It's great to keep on the positive side. Too many unknowns at this point. The courts are the biggest hurdle I see. Then what about France and Germany? France hasn't adopted Inclisiran? Too expensive perhaps? Vascepa although not cheap it's acceptance is slow. I'm holding off and waiting. Not getting too excited about getting bought out, especially not June 2025. 

Did Hikma drop its patent invalidity contentions, or did Hikma make no such contentions in their Answer to any Complaint filed by Amarin?

RMB, The initial ruling would be a binding judgement. Appeals are just an attempt to change that judgement. If we get a favorable ruling, the US market would be ours again. Hikma would be gone and the other generic companies would be in active litigation. That is when a settlement is plausible.
Sleven,

I follow that all along, but consider that a final and binding judgement is a very, very long time away.

The only thing shorter, is a settlement, but I totally agree with you that a settlement is not of any real value and those pushing a BO based on a settlement I don't think are thinking it through.

RMB, I don't think you understand what I'm saying. If the Hikma label is a partial label, so is the Teva label. Every generic would have a partial label. If Hikma is found to be guilty of induced infringement, based in part on the label, all generic companies have inappropriate labels. A settlement is not a rational strategy. Remember, it has been determined that at the pleading stage all of this is now a matter of fact not law.
Now do you follow?
Sleven,

https://www.ncpe.ie/icosapent-ethyl-vazkepa/
Sleven,

Sure Sleven, but doesn't change the time element needed to fully resolve these cases.  In the case of a settlement that would not include the other Generics. 

RMB, Read the circuit court ruling in GSK v Teva. You will see some wording about the difference between a "skinny label" and a "partial label". This is important. GSK v Teva used a combination of label and advertising, in order to get the suit to the jury. Amarin v Hikma is using the same tactic. In GSK v Teva, the label itself was considered as infringing. The court declared it a partial label. Not a proper "skinny label". The label is part of the evidence asserted by Amarin in the suit. If Hikma is found guilty of induced infringement, the court will most likely declare the generic company has a partial label. That is the way the court avoided running a foul of Hatch Waxman. Every generic has the same label. Do you understand?
Sleven,

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/608136580

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/608060306

So true.  Absent a settlement in those cases (and how does that really when there are many other Generics), it will be years and years for resolutions.  That is the part to me that is a weak link in thus BO story.  An acquirer will wait so long that patent protection would run out.  Well so maybe it has to be some sort of settlement or argreement, who really knows what all parties want. 

So, the missing puzzle pieces looks like the Hikma "Infringement" case. Plus the antitrust cases. 
Say what you will about DOGE, but the Justice Department is in dire need of revamping. 
These cases could get dragged out for years. Whatever happened to the phrase; "A fair and speedy trial" The appeals process is mind boggling. 

They would have been delisted if not for the RS. Not being able to get the stock over a buck on your own and being saved by a RS is not getting into compliance based on fundamentals. I mean buy more before the split go for it.This is the only stock in my portfolio today not up. I have several bios up 10% today and they do not even have revenue. They just have promise.

Do what you have to do its all truth its not bashing.

Bull
Seve333, ignore
Why frustrate yourself reading his bashing

Here we go...1st the delisting and now they will run out of money. The outstanding shares will be 20million. They burned 6m in q4. When they run out of money in 8 years you think they can't raise money? Lol. This is about as smart as claiming that amrn will be delisted.

I appreciate your take, but as others have stated defending the RS, it's all about market cap. That is how a potential offer is made.  My opinion as to the other point is that awaiting clinical trial results is different from a potential buyout. Data is secret but how many times over the years have we read about rumours of a BO.  But maybe this time no one has caught on.  We shall see. 

Once the LR-EtEPA patent is granted the on-going legal issues Nicole secondary - just a potential revenue to Amarin/suitor when/if their outcomes are positive, in a couple of years.

Exactly and AMRN will probably run out of money at some point if it is not sold. They cannot continue like they are.

Agree that sales in Europe are a joke.
My opinion is only a BP owning AMRN
will change that. Is a BP out there that
would acquire AMRN for a price Denner
may want? I don't know. But unless or
until AMRN is owned by a BP sales in
Europe will remain subpar.

Well Rose..... another thing to consider is a .40 stock is of little to no interest to the market or big players at the moment..... sometimes we all overthink these things. Take the days leading up to the Reduce-It results being published...... you'd think SOMEBODY knew something but if they did, and were accumulating, they were pretty sly about it because it never showed up in the share price.

Here is what I don't fully comprehend. You know reading the playbook set out SDL on ST all seems plausible enough. And now after a couple of days we here on this board seem to be buying into it. What I find missing is this. Somehow we denizens here, after reading the tea leaves and seeing all the puzzle pieces (as laid out by SDL) are convincing ourselves that the only thing left for a takeover is cleaning up the legal issues and that talks have been underway, etc. One would think, that the market and big players within it, would at the very least know what we know (but more than likely know in advance of us) so one would think that the stock price would have been bid up significantly before this, not necessitating all this razzmatazz with the RS. Any good explanations.

Denner personally paid $40 million to settle his insider trading lawsuit last year. The board paid 84 million more to settle their lack of fiduciary duty cause they held an offer in their pocket for 6 months so they could accumulate shares and hold for 6 months to avoid the recapture.

SEC didnt charge any of them, they dont care. Shareholders sued him.

So the rules of the game are do whatever you want. Pay off the small group of people that complain and have the resources to take you to court and bank the difference. Cost of doing business. SEC is just a gatekeeper to stop small fish from playing the game.

Denner is gordon gekko 2.0. But a BO only works if anyone is actully interested and we have no idea if anyone is. The sales in Europe are a complete joke so far.

Why not wait til after the split?

Myself and a friend picked up over 100,000 shares today. He was in amrn back years ago and lost shares in a divorce. His exwife sold at 2 to 3. Of course he reminded her of that over the years. Now he is back in. I will continue to buy.

Part 2. Denner is no angel. He will do whatever he
needs to do to come out a winner. My opinion is that
sales of Vazkepa in Europe absolutely need a BP to
optimize their potential. The sooner a BO happens
the more time the acquirer will have to realize the full
potential before patents expire. As SanDiegoLiving has
speculated, AMRN may be trying to clear up some legal
issues before a deal can be struck. Once the reverse split
takes affect I hope that Denner/Sarissa buys more AMRN
stock and that they also initiate the share buyback...Those
will be the tells that their game-plan is coming to fruition.

CBB, I agree..... and it may be another indication of why he hasn't purchased more shares because if something is in the works, it would be considered material and he'd be subject to insider trading scrutiny. At least that's my theory anyway..... I do hope SanDiegoLivings puzzle pieces fit together.

Correct! More than likely he cannot buy.

Ram, These guys always will have workarounds
and they have attorneys who can also provide them
with legal protective strategies. Presuming that a BO
is the destination that Denner wants to take this he will
be very careful to not do anything that would get him
or a potential suitor in legal trouble. With AMRN seeming
working together with NVS there may (or may not) be an
"understanding" in what this could lead to. (Before The
Medicines Company was acquired by NVS, I think the
concept was leaked to a financial publication. Why?
because both companies wanted a higher price to
justify the high price already agreed to.

Ram, this has been crossing my mind as well.

Although, executing the share buyback at current prices would effectively increase the future return for Sarissa (and any shareholder). So it seems that starting the buyback at some point would make a whole lot of sense.

And if there is any validity to what SanDiego is saying, then letting go of $50M wouldn't seem like a huge risk.

If there are conversations internally about a buyout and a suitor exists, wouldn't Denner buying shares be considered insider trading?

DAR, I agree 100%. I have felt all along that $5 was the bare minimum that this company would sell for - and that was assuming no real strong developments outside of what we are seeing (ie. no-recapture of US market, no new formula or indications, etc.).

$5 = $2B = roughly $500-600M PEAK revenues. Which assumes US keeps deteriorating, Europe grows only modestly, China is modest at best, and we don't see much from RoW.

So I think it will likely be materially higher than that. All this talk about getting $1.50 or $2.50 is nonsense. Those numbers don't even make sense unless you assume that Vascepa/Vazkepa is dead. Because $2.50 would equate to roughly $250-350M in peak worldwide revenue. I can't imagine a scenario where that's possible.

Nice find, DMC.

MRM, the R/S does not change the math on anything. Same multiple to get where you want to go.

As I said in a previous post, I think doing the R/S and avoiding de-listing was a good sign for us.

Now I will have 5k shares at $7-8 and have to see it climb all the way to $45 to break even, which seems impossible.

Mr. Main, Any BO of AMRN would require a vote that would
have to have a large amount of support by retail stuck in this.
There is speculation that AMRN may be working towards a sale
of AMRN by NVS. Honestly, I do not see Denner taking AMRN
private. I believe it is most likely that his plan is to ultimately sell
this to a BP. If you have read the links to SanDiegoLiving on
Stocktwits there may be valid reasons behind such speculation.
What I hope to see is additional buying by Denner/Sarissa and/or
initiation of the share buyback plan. That would give me confidence
to go further in. Were we all played? Absolutely! Regardless, I do
not think that now is the time to throw in the towel.

In the USA Omega-3 market is shifting toward pharma-grade formulations, driven by rising cardiovascular prescriptions. Leading players like KD Pharma, DSM, and BASF are expanding high-purity EPA and DHA products, with Vascepa (icosapent ethyl) setting the benchmark for ultra-refined Omega-3 concentrates in triglyceride management.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expanding-omega-3-market-reach-093000401.html

MrMain, Denner will need more than yours and mine $45 to break even, I believe. Not that I have a huge confidence he will get it. He has lost money on other investments in the past.  

OK, got it. Thanks Chromosome. That may make some sense in Europe. I guess we will know come Q1, and as revenues increase and flatten out.

Would make Q3 look pretty lame. I thought revenues were growing a bit faster in UK and Spain. Guess not.😒

I'm also curious how much of this same issue effected the RoW revenues. Those revenues actually looked pretty good, but I suspect Q1 is going to come down a bit. The nice thing about RoW revenues is, they are NET amounts to Amarin (ie. commissions), not gross sales. So those are very valuable to us (no COGS associated with them).

We will revisit this at the end of April. If the stock is at $4 hats off to you. If it's at $15 ill thank you for the shares.

OK I was dead wrong about Denner being an ally just because he invested $100 million, and I deserve any scorn from those who tried to warn us about voting Blue. Clearly he views this as a zero sum game and we are the losers in that scenario.

Now I will have 5k shares at $7-8 and have to see it climb all the way to $45 to break even, which seems impossible. Not to mention Denner will likely dilute at $8 and drive the stock back down to who knows where.

Barring a miracle it looks like my reward for being a loyal shareholder is to get pennies on the dollar when Denner takes the company private, and then sells it after booting us all out.

Dark days indeed my friends.

Caddiedad, my main reason for posting those numbers was to get a response relative to a potential sell price of $100/sh which represents a $2B sell. If/When Amarin clears some of the hurdles i.e., legal issues, improved sales in EU, France approval, new product, AG, does the group believe a $2B sell is possible. It seems that Sarissa could have initiated a fire sell for $5 / sh before the ratio adjustment so I'm hopeful we can improve on that. $100/ share +. I was just looking for some thoughts on this.
TIA

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/607928164

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/607952919

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/607960397

And the more extreme case of that is called channel stuffing. The CEO of ArthroCare got 20 year prison sentence for inflating revenue by making sweet deals with distributors to take product in exchange for discounts and ability to sell back later.
Obviously that is not the case here but was trying to illustrate my point