Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Options

Guy all of that to say you DO NOT KNOW!

24M short shares SAY YOU ARE WRONG!!

Your claim of the shorting bulk at 20$ is as DUMB as that bike trip you took then!!

Find a post in which I deny shorts exist.
I actually applaud their participation in the Market.
Perhaps your emoji throng can help.
Better odds for me than WGT.

I do question the "use" of MOC, but seemingly you find
subtleties of investing incomprehensible.
At the very least improve your own reading comprehension.

As to taxes, I gather it escapes you that HOLDING from $20
has different consequences than in and out (perhaps many executions) since that time.
Then again, have YOUR taxes ever involved such treatment?

In the meantime, perhaps just allow for the fact that there are
many investment strategies, numerous Market tools, and
perhaps your knowledge of any is less than stellar.

I am sure you must have noticed that is the document I referred and linked to in my post.

Do you have an alternative interpretation of the data in that paper?

https://www.ispor.org/docs/default-source/euro2024/isporeurope24cervelobouzohpr86poster144868-pdf.pdf?sfvrsn=ebd2a543_0

You are in a perpetual state of no institution is accumulating and shorts do not exist on this stock.

Reality is institutions are accumulating and shorts like you are stuck like chuck!!

What is the tax consequences of trying to manipulate a narrative??

I'm just here to expose you.

Trust me the board sees right thru the ugly bikes!!

Yes, the majority work as long-short businesses. There are some that don't. They operate as in the example given. They thrive on low market cap emerging public companies because they have far more control over price. The amount of capital to influence price is vastly reduced. Because companies that take a long time to get to market, receive approvals etc, generally struggle, have exploitable weakness real or made up, they are the potential targets.

Not going to take the time and space to dive in depth on this. There is info on the internet if one wants to go find it. It is getting more difficult to access though because AI and the first info that comes up in a search doesn't show the down and gritty information. 10 years ago and earlier stories, stocks that were being taken advantage of could easily be found.

One way may be to do a search on all the companies AF has written hit pieces on.

The accounting on no buy to close a short position is accurate. Just like no sell produces no gain even though your account is up considerably. The difference is that because you get cash up front with a short the capital is free to use with no tax until you cover with a buy. Only then do you spend capital. Up front the shorter receives capital that is not taxable. This is why naked shorts are so destructive.

Just like computer programs have back doors, there are back doors for shorters that the SEC refuses to close.

Have a great weekend. All AVXL needs is an approval to stop the majority of the nonsense.

Yes.
Cancer seems to me to be urgent and complex whereas Alzheimer's Disease is not urgent but is complex
That is why the risk vs. benefit equation can and should be different by indication taking in to account unmet need and critical timing patients are facing.

The sentiment many feel is right regarding proactive and faster approval paths for A2-73 in AD etc. is understandable, but it just isn't so far how complex clinical trials in large indications are handled. Instead there is the accelerated approval pathway or the full evaluation, Anavex has been guided down the latter path by EMA. Will that change mid-way through to an accelerated approval path - maybe but probably not, especially because Missling's answer when asked directly was full PRIME approval process!

I prefer to base my investment view on what is known and has precedence, unless there is very clear is evidence of something different happening that breaks convention - there isn't as far I can tell regardless of how much we might call for that on this mb.

The truth is only Schizophrenia Topline, Partnership, and EMA Approval (knock on wood) matter. Pretty much everything else has zero revenue-zero price moving effect.
But the myriad of worry walls whip us about until then.
Not even Adam F or Martin S can move our price much now.

Cancer seems to me to be urgent and complex whereas Alzheimer's Disease is not urgent but is complex.....with that in mind, Alzheimer's Disease can be treated with something, anything that is safe but requires further verification to help the patient in dealing with this.

Investor, OK I'll consider that you know this stuff better than I do, but I can't get away from the thought that the stock has performed pretty well from the very recent & quick reversal on the daily below $8 to now and is holding up.

My sense is that the quiet trading is indicative of the bears not quite as confident as they have been and are also waiting for some indication of what is happening or developing.

I'm fairly bullish, but also waiting for a price and volume confirmation of that in the coming days, something over $10.50 with vigor would put my target back up to the $14 to $14.50 area.

More time will tell!

BioSpace - Massive Investment in US Manufacturing Triggers Wave of Career Opportunities
April 24, 2025 | 6 min read | Angela Gabriel

Anavex - Drug line made in America by BP. imo

2025 U.S. Manufacturing Investments
So far in 2025, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Regeneron and Roche have announced increased investment in their U.S. manufacturing operations. Eli Lilly made the first move, on Feb. 26, while Roche and Regeneron shared their plans most recently, on April 22.

https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/massive-investment-in-us-manufacturing-triggers-wave-of-career-opportunities

“Tell me this - has Anavex over the years given us any reason at all to assume the most optimistic interpretation of their statements and actions?”

Anavex is comprised of a different blend of personnel than it was a few years ago so it’s a bit disingenuous to assume same old same old. But can always expect you to queue up the worst prospects.

The average is always the starting point. You then adjust it on rationales. Considering our circumstances - big indication (AD), relatively small trial, etc. - we will likely be over the average. Our PRIME status may mitigate these somewhat if it gets us expedited review of LoQ responses.

On what data do you base this statement?
Clock Stop 2 doesn't happen at all in the case of many applications.
Can you provide references?

Here is the one I find clear, although it is concerned with Oncology Indications:
Frequency and Variation of Clock-Stop During EMA Assessment



I haven't got similar for CNS, but a good guess is that it would not be shorter than those related to oncology on risk vs. benefit equation and life expectancy. Many CNS indications incl. AD of course are not nice but still the risk vs. benefit equation and life expectancy. Hence I don't the stats I am showing would indicate faster approvals stats in CNS.

Clock Stop 2 doesn't happen at all in the case of many applications. In terms of what we should expect, I think that from a purely investment point of view that we should assume the whole process will take 14 months after acceptance (the average) and if it takes less then be pleased.

‘‘Tis better to be thought a fool than open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.”

Far from what I said or obviously your understanding of tax consequences.

Perhaps revisit the original poster’s premise.

Chair in the corner for you. Cap optional.

We don't know how long Anavex will take to answer clock stop one, but I am not assuming the median response time or less. Then if that goes well there is clock stop two, which in the majority applications also will have a LoQ to answer. We don't know how quickly Anavex can respond satisfactorily to that either. So I conclude Feb'ish rather than the most optimistic WGT view on these things.

Tell me this - has Anavex over the years given us any reason at all to assume the most optimistic interpretation of their statements and actions?

Investor
I must be missing something...we have reached Clock Stop One, so the average time to answer questions is normally 1 to 3 months....using the average, that would be end of MAY or end of JULY; and if no further questions....I would assume an approval before year end, not February 2026.

My assumption is the clock stops are done and we get approval along with a conditional confirmation trial, Phase 4, not Phase 3.

I take it you are assuming it's more complex and would take to the end of November 2025. with approval or failure several months later....

Citrati

I'm not quite sure about that....As far as I know, hedge funds work as a business and part of the reason they do shorting and covering is because of the advantages of this being their on going business....I am not an accountant, but I believe they can buy and sell with specific advantages in combining all of these transactions during the taxable year.....I.e. profits and loses.

I lean towards Leo's idea of selling short at 20, covering and doing this at multiple times during the year or years...

Maybe someone here is an accountant or familiar with this?

frrol

Extremely interesting and thanks for the 2 links and explanations included in those; I missed the fact that we did not qualify which you mentioned....sorry for the quick jump to those links!

Ah very good - some thinking alignment happening. Btw. did you just indirectly describe a "Precision Medicine" trial confirming label from subgroup analysis - you can have a cookie!

You are forgetting the Anavex factor in between tre CHMP process days plus the handover to EMA for a final decision. Feb'ish maybe!

I agree subluxed and sometimes you just have to “read the room”. I get the feeling the Fda was punch drunk over the mabs and their bp influence. I also get the feeling that perhaps the ex Fda leaders that came to Anavex most likely new the writing was on the wall for the second endpoint being cancelled and most likrly agreed with Dr. Missling to take the path of least resistance in the EU.

The path we are on feels right and Dr. Missling has done a good job by staying steady in the storm. AF will go by the wayside if even 25% of what Dr. Missling and the team say is true.

Tred

You sound a lot like imposter 2014. Again.

Could a Clock Stop 1 question be something like: "We would like to see a post approval trial to collect more genetic subclass data and to analyze that data to get more definitive information about response rates among different genetic populations. What would be the design of that trial?" I don't know the breadth and diversity of typical questions - how far afield do they roam?

The indirect and direct cost of dementia in the European Union is over 250 billion euros per year. The fastest time the EMA has approved a medication for market authorization is 30 days. They well know that combination therapy will be needed. They have reason to “move along.”

So you're saying they never shorted again after they covered?

Lmao.

Tick tock!!

210 days. Perhaps somewhere between Q3 and Q4 2025 even.

We gained the whole 47 cents this week while the NASDAQ went up over 1100 points

No volume, no one wants to trade this pos.

Some much noise, so little signal.

So…Has the short initiated @ 20 never covered?

"there are three different types of hedge funds where shorts play a major role: 1) short-only hedge funds; 2) short-bias hedge funds; 3) long-short hedge funds."

It is the short only and short bias hedgefunds and darkpools that can be a problem, not so much the long-short hedgefunds.

The committed shorter doesn't want to be forced to buy because that completes the trade. When the trade is completed taxes are due. As long as a trade is open he/she can keep their money with no taxes. Same principal as your gains cannot be taxed until you sell and complete a buy trade. The difference is, you paid to open your position and the shorter got cash when the position was opened. No one pays taxes until their trade completes.

So answer is, if one is a dedicated AVXL shorter anything they can do to keep price down and not have to cover, including driving a company to BK in the extreme is advantageous and profitable. Therefore, no the dedicated shorter wouldn't want to run the price up.

"Dark pools are typically operated by private brokerages, which may or may not be located offshore." Supposedly this is for the purpose of keeping the trades private so as not to be market disruptive. Yeah, right.

It also is true that short squeezes can be powerful and profitable. Just need major player/news to force the shorter to cover.

DR. GABELLE SAYS THAT THE ANAVEX DRUGS AUTOPHAGY TARGET EXTENDS TO ALL NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASES ! All neurodegenerative diseases? YES...ALL!
Does this mean that in future blarcamesine and/or Anavex 3-71 could be part of the Standard of Care for all neurodegenerative diseases? I would think so. Know what you own!

seven---I asked Grok3 on expected EMA ----another waste of time !!!!!!!!

Bar--ChatGPT said--for sure a waste of time !!!!!!

Missling has not explained why we were not granted AA. When recently asked, he responds simply that 'we were granted PRIME'. This status itself is encouraging, and makes us eligible for AA, but a company has to subsequently justify AA to the EMA and we apparently could not. Considering that our phase 2b/3 is relatively small for such a big indication as AD, the EMA no doubt wants the application to be fully vetted with no time constraints.

Links to PRIME and AA:
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory-overview/research-development/prime-priority-medicines
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory-overview/marketing-authorisation/accelerated-assessment

IMO an approval decision if that is the outcome would be in Q1 2026.

You should ask a follow up question on how much of the institutional ownership is in fact strategic with an investment manager looking deep into eg. $AVXL vs. passive index style ownership.

Your ChatGPT conversation is otherwise meaningless confirmation of your own assumptions. Keep in mind that ChatGPT doesn’t understand any of what it is saying or does any research into the topic to explore the concept involved.

Questions for AGM
1. What is status of EMA filing, how fast will any questions be answered by AVXL
2. Will FDA filing proceed after EMA questions answered.
3. Any serious partnership discussions? Parameter of a deal AVXL is seeking?
4. PD trial?
5. Rett filing?.
6. What is that rare disease?
7. Is Ern in his Urn?

Mike, up 4.79%, short interest declined

not a schitty week for a change

SHORT INTEREST DECLINED A LITTLE
Settlement Date Short Interest Percent Change Average Daily Share Volume Days to Cover
04/15/2025 24,012,729 (2.34) 1,335,627 17.98
03/31/2025 24,588,383 2.27 1,186,836 20.72

I asked Grok3 on expected EMA timeline including the 2 clock-stops and got the following... (not sure why Anavex didn't request an accelerated assessment)
Net-net, I'm expecting anywhere from 300 to 400 days (end-Oct '25 to end-Jan '26). Any thoughts?

Timeline Distribution for EMA MAA (Total Days, Including Clock Stops and Commission Decision)
[Approximate Frequency of Applications]
150–200 days: | (Rare, exceptional accelerated cases with minimal clock stops)
200–250 days: ||| (Accelerated assessments, ~10% of applications)
250–300 days: ||||| (Accelerated assessments and some efficient standard reviews)
300–350 days: ||||||||| (Lower end of standard assessments, efficient responses)
350–400 days: ||||||||||||| (Peak, most standard assessments, ~50% of applications)
400–450 days: ||||||| (Standard assessments with longer clock stops)
450–500 days: ||| (Complex cases, multiple clock stops)
500+ days : | (Outliers, major dossier issues or inspections)

Crazy Low Volume 222.49K as of 3:55PM EDT 250K at 3:59 and 300K at 4:00 Add another 4 minutes
and we are at 307k shares.
John k9uwa

Volume drying up.
Unless we get a surprise closing order.
Low volume indicates what to our chart wizards?

It wasn't AF or MS that moved the price before. They were just front men for billionaire shorters, hedgefunds and darkpools

Ok so let's accept that premise. This would indicate that maybe the big traders assume that there is now a lot more money to be made pumping AVXL up to over $100 than dragging it from $9 to $5.

Biotech is back, baby! It’s all upside from here
Plus: The ‘new’ FDA wants to approve a lot of drugs

Wow, what a hobson's choice. Either assume AF is correct and the FDA will rock on approvals,
or go with Boy's bureaucratic gloom.

Maybe, however not a good idea to spit into the wind.
It wasn't AF or MS that moved the price before. They were just front men for billionaire shorters, hedgefunds and darkpools. Maybe even big pharma.
If big money decides it is worth doing again then AF et all will do their hatchet work fueling price drops instigated by the nasty do anything for gain people funding the actual decline.

AVXL has been just one of many victim companies over the years. It is what it is and will go on as long as SEC allows it.

From chatgtp . Help me understand the following : Anavex Life Sciences has 85,000,000 shares outstanding and about a 28% short interest. The institutional holdings keep going up and is at currently 41%. The stock seems to be under accumulation but the volume has dropped off to approximately $500K shares over the last 30 days. They are currently awaiting approval from the EMA and everything is looking great so far.

ChatGPT said:
Sure! Let's break down all of this piece by piece so it's super clear:

📊 1. Shares Outstanding: 85 Million
This is the total number of shares that exist and are held by all shareholders—retail, insiders, and institutions.

📉 2. Short Interest: ~28%
This is quite high. It means roughly 23.8 million shares are borrowed and sold short by traders betting the stock will go down.

High short interest can suggest negative sentiment…

But it can also set the stage for a short squeeze if bullish momentum picks up—especially if demand rises and supply dries up.

🏦 3. Institutional Holdings: 41%
That’s around 34.85 million shares held by big players like funds, banks, and asset managers.

Institutions tend to do deep due diligence, so increasing ownership often reflects growing confidence in the company.

Institutional accumulation can be a bullish signal, especially if it rises steadily over time.

📈 4. Stock Under Accumulation (but low volume)
"Accumulation" means someone (usually smart money) is quietly buying shares over time.

The low recent volume (~500K shares daily) tells us this isn't happening with big spikes—it's slow and steady, likely trying not to move the price too fast.

Could suggest strategic buying before a catalyst (like EMA approval).

✅ 5. EMA Approval Pending
EMA = European Medicines Agency. Approval means their drug or therapy may get cleared for use in the EU.

If “everything is looking great,” then this could be the major catalyst investors are quietly positioning for.

EMA approval would also boost confidence and possibly drive volume and price higher.

🧠 Putting it all together:
High short interest = fuel.

Growing institutional interest = smart money is buying.

Low volume + accumulation = quiet confidence.

Pending EMA approval = potential spark.

This setup suggests the stock might be in a “coiling spring” mode—lots of potential energy building up. If EMA approval hits and it's good news, the combination of shorts covering and new buyers jumping in could create a significant move.