Deere and Co (DE) Options

Here comes the pain

For some reason, they issued the 8-K filing before the press release.

I had trouble finding that Deere div news but here it is:

"Deere & Company Raises Quarterly Dividend"

"MOLINE, Ill., Dec. 3, 2024 /CNW/ -- The Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) Board of Directors today declared a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share payable February 10, 2025, to stockholders of record on December 31, 2024.

The new quarterly rate represents an additional 15 cents per share over the previous level of $1.47.

SOURCE John Deere Company"

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/deere-amp-company-raises-quarterly-dividend-855371733.html#:~:text=MOLINE%2C%20Ill.%2C%20Dec.,the%20previous%20level%20of%20%241.47.

"Unstoppable Dividend Stock Is Up 21% in 3 Months. Here's Why It's Still a Great Buy in December."

"After going practically nowhere for more than three years, shares of Deere (NYSE: DE) finally blasted to a new all-time high on Nov. 25 after the company reported its fiscal fourth-quarter and 2024 results (for the periods ended Oct. 27). But Deere's net income fell by more than 30% in fiscal 2024, and management is projecting even lower earnings in fiscal 2025."

"Expectations are everything

Understanding the importance of expectations is an essential skill for becoming a great investor. A prime example would be Nvidia, which on Nov. 20 reported blowout third-quarter results and raised its outlook for the year. Despite that, the stock price has fallen since then because investors' expectations for the GPU powerhouse had been even higher."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unstoppable-dividend-stock-21-3-100000027.html

Hey, thank's DD. I never chase high dividend stocks. I buy low or moderate div ones (around market rate or currently ~1.4%) and sit tight. More tax efficient that way. But Deere has been stunning for the fairly short time I've had it.

DE raises dividend again:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000315189/000155837024015982/de-20241203x8k.htm

The new annualized payout is $6.48 (up from $5.88). At the current share price (~$460), the new payout equates to a yield of 1.4%. Although the current yield is not that high, DE has more than doubled the dividend during the he past 5 years.

John Deere shares doing great, raising payouts.

You have to have sales to move higher....local dealer of 7 stores just slashed 30% of their workforce...hmmm.   If DE can make that kind of money on no sales than we are all in trouble. 

DE new 52 week high

Deere is my newest holding. Had it for just a few years. I'll see if I can find div numbers going back further.

DE

Growing yields...🚜

Well stated!!! "Great Quarterly Dividend Grower"

Thanks for sharing that dividend history from 1997 to present.

I was not aware of that dividend trajectory...

Deere, What a Great Quarterly Dividend Grower

Sep 30, 2024 $1.47 Dividend
Jun 28, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Jun 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Mar 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Dec 30, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Sep 27, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Jun 27, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Mar 28, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Dec 28, 2018 0.76 Dividend
Sep 27, 2018 0.69 Dividend
Jun 28, 2018 0.69 Dividend
Mar 28, 2018 0.60 Dividend
Dec 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Jun 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Mar 29, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Dec 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Jun 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Mar 29, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Dec 29, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Jun 26, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Mar 27, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Dec 29, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Sep 26, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Jun 26, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Mar 27, 2014 0.51 Dividend
Dec 27, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Sep 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Jun 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Mar 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Dec 27, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Sep 26, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Jun 27, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Mar 28, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Dec 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Sep 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Jun 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Mar 29, 2011 0.35 Dividend
Dec 29, 2010 0.35 Dividend
Sep 28, 2010 0.30 Dividend
Jun 28, 2010 0.30 Dividend
Mar 29, 2010 0.28 Dividend
Dec 29, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Sep 28, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Jun 26, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Mar 27, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Dec 29, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Sep 26, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Jun 26, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Mar 27, 2008 0.25 Dividend
Dec 27, 2007 0.25 Dividend
Sep 26, 2007 0.25 Dividend
Jun 27, 2007 0.22 Dividend
Mar 28, 2007 0.22 Dividend
Dec 27, 2006 0.22 Dividend
Sep 27, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Jun 28, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Mar 29, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Dec 28, 2005 0.20 Dividend
Sep 28, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Jun 28, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Mar 29, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Dec 29, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Sep 28, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Jun 28, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Mar 29, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Dec 29, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Mar 27, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Mar 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Jun 27, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Mar 28, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Sep 27, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Jun 28, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Mar 29, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Sep 28, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Jun 28, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Mar 29, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Sep 28, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Mar 27, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1997 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 1997 0.10 Dividend
Jun 26, 1997 $0.10 Dividend

DE FY4Q24 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-q4-2024-earnings-call-230018573.html

Hilarious.

"That post did not age especially well."

That post did not age especially well.

DE issues soft FY2025* guidance—>share price rockets 9%:

https://www.deere.com/assets/pdfs/common/news/deere-4q24-earnings-release.pdf

Background: FY2023* was a peak-cycle year in the agriculture-equipment market (which comprises ~70% of DE’s profits), and hence FY2024* was a down year. DE expects FY2025* to be another down year; on today’s CC, DE described the outlook for FY2025 as “80% of mid-cycle.”

Details: FY2025 net income is expected to be $5.0-5.5B, down from $7.1B in FY2024 and $10.2B in FY2023. Based on an estimated 260M diluted shares, the FY2025 net-income guidance equates to FY2025 GAAP EPS of $19.23-21.15, down from $25.62 in FY2024 and $34.63 in FY2023.

At the current share price (~$440 as I’m typing), the guidance for FY2025 EPS represents a forward P/E of 21-23x.

Based on all of the above, the share price today is +9% to within a hair of its all-time high of $450 in 2023. Why does this make sense? Because DE is a rather different company than it was only a few years. It is now more of a tech company—with material recurring service revenues—than the “boring” cyclical industrial it used to be.


FY4Q24 CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/DE-4Q24-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf

*DE’s fiscal years end on the last Sunday in October. FY4Q24 ran from 7/31/24 to 10/27/24, essentially the Aug/Sep/Oct period.

Nasty drop today.

The farmers have quit buying , we have not seen anything yet

jmho

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-announces-more-layoffs-iowa-203459869.html

ah would you look at that....even more layoffs....they were done.  It's about to get painful.

Thanks for the additional color. I presume that many customers have had a better experience with DE's technology subscriptions than you did.

They do but they are now pricing it where it's unaffordable.   Everything is a subscription.   You don't own it and the year over year costs are way to expensive.   Half the time you have to have a tech out to re sync the system.   Cuts in and out everytime a fault code pops up.  It really is out of hand.

Trump threatens DE with_steep tariff on_equipment_imported_from Mexico:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-vows-call-xi-elected-194518506.html Deere earlier this year said it would lay off 503 workers in Illinois and 310 in Iowa as it faces rising operational costs and declining demand. It’s also acquiring land in Mexico to shift some production previously done in the US.

…“I’m just notifying John Deere right now, if you do that, we’re putting a 200% tariff on everything that you want to sell into the United States,” Trump said Monday, citing reports about the company shifting manufacturing to Mexico. DE was -1.5% in AH trading.

Thanks. DE claims it has superior technology for automated operation. (See #msg-169159692 for related info.)

AGCO...Fendt

Whose equipment will you buy instead?

This I know. I am or should I said was a loyal customer. We farm enough acres to afford 2 combines. We have owned deere equipment for 7 decades. They have made impossible to own their equipment anymore. It isn't reliable and parts are never in stock and they mark up the parts 4 and 500%....

1 combine to trade yoy was 60k 3 years ago, It jumped to 80k 2 years ago and to trade for 2025 it is now 120k....They are doing it to every customer. The inflation jumps they have taken have priced them out of the market. Prepare from a major backlash from the farming consumer. Belts have been tightened.

Construction accounts for ~25% of DE's profits. The ag business is much more consequential for DE.

Patience boys this Dog is dead for the next couple years. Construction is tanking. Deere is in major trouble. Fancy accounting only goes so far.

Deere Quarterly Dividends

Jun 28, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Jun 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Mar 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend

DE FY3Q24 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q3-2024-deere-co-earnings-072221165.html

2023 was the peak of the ag cycle, so by comparison 2024 is "rough." But DE is much better equipped to make money throughout the ag cycle than they were a few years ago. That's the big story here, IMO.

But "agriculture" has encountered some ruff patches lately. Ruff patches happen, which is why my money is nearly 100% in large cap blue chips. And Deere is The Blue Chip of its sector.

It's certainly not a "slaughter," which is what one poster on this board predicted, LOL.

Thanks for those numbers. Exceptionally strong day for DE.

DE reports FY3Q24 results—reiterates_FY2024*_guidance:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/DE-3Q24-News-Release.pdf

• FY2023 was a peak-cycle year in the agriculture-equipment market (which comprises ~70% of DE’s profits), and hence FY2024 is a down year, although still the second-best earnings year in the company's history, based on current guidance.

• FY3Q24 product sales (excluding revenue from DE’s finance unit) were $11.39B, -20% YoY, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $10.9B.

• FY3Q24 GAAP EPS was $6.29, down from $10.10 in FY3Q23, but above the Wall Street consensus figure of $5.68.

• DE reiterated full-year FY2024 guidance of $7.0B net income. Based on ~275M diluted shares, the FY2024 net-income guidance equates to FY2024 GAAP EPS of $25.45, down from the actual $34.63 in FY2023.

At the current share price (~$377, +7%, as I’m typing), the FY2024 EPS guidance of $25.18 equates to a FY2024 P/E ratio of ~15.0x.


CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/DE-3Q24-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf

*DE’s fiscal years end on Oct 31; FY3Q24 spanned the period from 5/1/24 to 7/31/24.

DE about to get slaughtered. They have earned it. Can't treat your customers like shit for so many years and just expect them to keep taking it. They ran the largest inflationary period on the American farmer ever seen in history.

DE dials back on DEI:

https://www.wsj.com/business/deere-slashes-diversity-initiatives-after-backlash-from-conservative-activist-24424500 Deere, the world’s largest seller of farm equipment, said it would ensure the absence of what it described as “socially motivated messages” from company-mandated training materials and policies unless otherwise required. It also pledged to reaffirm that “the existence of diversity quotas and pronoun identification” aren’t, and never have been, company policy.

Lol....are you watching?? Are you not recognizing the economic downturn....Grains all went into a bear market....not just the United States. infrastructure spending is only minimal. US economy is on life support. It's being pumped by every media outlet across the US.

DE is a very different company than it was during previous downturns in the ag cycle. Yes, DE is still a cyclical company, but it is much better equipped to handle cyclical downturns than it used to be.

Your use of the word, “slaughtered” is off-base, IMO.

Correction—DE’s layoff does not change the company’s financial guidance for FY2024:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000315189/000155837024008911/de-20240531x8k.htm

A prior post, which inadvertently omitted the word, “not,” has been deleted.

Ag economy is 3 years away from coming out of their recession unless a major weather event happens. This company is about to be slaughtered.

The one sector farmers will spend money on is planters. Find out how many planters are on order ....or better yet how many employees are working in Planter works(thats what JD calls their planter factory)... People have been laid off there for almost 6 months......just saying be careful...Papa Deere is going to slash.

I'm not....that will start getting heavily cut this next qtr. layoffs can only get u through 2 qtrs after that it's dividends. next wtr expect a huge dividend cut.

You're ignoring Deere's steady earnings and dividend increases over the past decade.

In the conference call they made no mention of more layoffs or driving down inventory even further. Maybe I shouldn't have said lie. I should have said never told the whole truth.

I work in this sector and agriculture is in a MAJOR recession....Farmers have pretty much closed their checkbook. Inflation has hit them for the last 10 years and now interest rates are putting the squeeze on. Deere cannot avoid a major hit here. Layoffs aren't going to save them from this recession.

I skimmed Taleb's book, The Black Swan when it came out. Got nothing from it. He launched several investment funds a decade ago. All performed poorly as I recall.

"At the most basic level, optionality just means having lots of options."

"MBAs love to talk about “optionality” and how they want more of it. But you don’t need an MBA to explain yourself by saying you’re “Keeping your options open.” Optionality is the Millennial lodestar: we keep our options open."

Abhorrent biz speak

It's a common buzzword in business. In any event, I don't see where DE said anything misleading, as the other poster alleged.