Shell plc (SHEL) Options

More on the same story from Barron’s:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/shell-stock-strategy-lng-oil-f5f3934b Shell is planning to invest heavily in liquefied natural gas even as its oil production stays flat through 2030, the British energy company said in an investor presentation at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

Investors like the strategy. Shell shares were up 1.3% around midday, after rising as much as 2.7% earlier in the day. Most other energy stocks were flat, along with oil prices.

Shell stock has risen 15% this year, and has outperformed all the other energy giants over the past year. One analyst who had suggested that Shell try to boost its stock price by moving its listing to the U.S., where investors are more friendly to energy than Europe, said that no longer looked necessary.

Shell was the first company to export natural gas in liquefied form by ship, in 1964. Today, it is one of the largest suppliers of LNG around the world, and a particularly big player in the U.S. It expects its LNG sales to grow by 4%-5% per year through the end of the decade.

SHEL boosts guidance for cash returns at_Capital_Markets_Day:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-accelerates-strategy-deliver-more-070000399.html Today Shell announces that it will:

• Enhance shareholder distributions from 30-40% to 40-50% of cash flow from operations (CFFO) through the cycle, continuing to prioritise share buybacks while maintaining a 4% per annum progressive dividend policy.

• Increase the structural cost reduction target from $2-3 billion by the end of 2025 to a cumulative $5-7 billion by the end of 2028, compared to 2022.

• Invest for growth while maintaining capital discipline, with spend lowered to $20-22 billion per year for 2025-2028.

• Grow free cash flow3 (FCF) per share by more than 10% per year through to 2030.

• Maintain the climate targets and ambition set out in Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy 2024.

SHEL reports 4Q24 results—raises dividend—commences_another $3.5B buyback to be completed before 5/2/25 (when SHEL will report 1Q25 results):

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-4th-quarter-2024-070000873.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-070300315.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-fourth-quarter-2024-070200042.html

The new annualized dividend is $2.864/ADS (up from $2.752). At the current share price ($66.61), the new dividend rate represents a yield of 4.3%.

4Q24 results were soft, but the stock is up today. SHEL had pre-announced that 4Q24 results would be weak.

SHEL, YPF ink LNG deal_for Vaca Muerta:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ypf-shell-sign-agreement-develop-142133000.html Argentina's state-run oil company YPF, in collaboration with Shell, has signed a project development agreement to advance the development of the Argentina LNG project. Touted as the nation's premier LNG project, the multi-stage $50bn Argentina LNG initiative focuses on the liquefaction of gas for international export.

It involves extracting gas from specific blocks in Vaca Muerta and transporting it via dedicated pipelines. These pipelines will stretch 580km to a processing and liquefaction facility that is set to be constructed in Sierra Grande, Rio Negro, along the Atlantic coast.

...The $3bn Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline will include a loading/unloading terminal, monobuoys and storage facilities, is due to commence operations in the fourth quarter of 2026. It will initially handle 550,000 barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to scale up to 700,000bpd.

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Total Energies, and BP will earn a combined $24.4 billion in Q3, which leaves all companies except Shell unable to cover their dividends and share buybacks with free cash flow. Bad trend...

SHEL reports 3Q24 results—maintains aggressive share buybacks:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-maintains-buybacks-gas-growth-081954779.html “Today, we announce another $3.5 billion buyback program for the next three months, making this the 12th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks,” Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said in a statement on Thursday.

…The company’s gearing, the ratio of net debt to equity, dropped to 15.7% in the quarter, the lowest since 2015. The strength of Shell’s balance sheet gives it better visibility on shareholder distributions regardless of broader macroeconomic conditions, Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman said on a call with reporters. SHEL also lowered its 2024 cap-ex guidance to “less than $22B”; the prior guidance was $22-25B.

What would you like to discuss?

Only links here, no discussion? :)

SHEL—Environmental activists put North Sea project at risk:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stopping-north-sea-drilling-risks-134337235.html

SHEL reports_2Q24_results—starts_another $3.5B buyback to be completed by 10/31/24:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-060300637.html

https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/latest-results.html#quarterly-results-presentation%20%20

The new buyback program is in addition to the $7B of buybacks SHEL executed during 2024 to date. Despite these buybacks, SHEL reduced its net debt by $2B during 2Q24.


2Q24 CC slides:
https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/latest-results/_jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/call_to_action_copy/links/item2.stream/1722485175909/97dd415ca93d3e812567420bd4e2c9f56cdbaeef/q2-2024-slides.pdf

SHEL reports 1Q24 results—starts_another $3.5M buyback:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-1st-quarter-2024-060000060.html

The new $3.5B buyback will be completed by the time SHEL reports 2Q24 results on 8/1/24 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-060300825.html ).

SHEL has already repurchased $3.5B of stock during 2024 to date.

SHEL pulls back on—(unrealistic)—decarbonization goals:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-oil-revises-climate-goals-220000675.html The target for 2030, which had been a 20% reduction, was lowered to 15-20% and the corporate carbon intensity target for 2035 was “retired.” LOL re the use of the word, “retired.”

SHEL’s 2040 LNG forecast shows how two publications can slant the commentary in opposite directions. First, here’s the WSJ’s take:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/shell-sees-global-lng-demand-up-at-least-50-by-2040-f63aa45d Shell said it expects global demand for liquefied natural gas to grow beyond 2040, driven by industrial demand in China and economic development in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

The British oil-and-gas major said Wednesday it estimates the global demand for the gas to rise by more than 50% by 2040 as the Chinese industrial sector pivots from coal to gas, and South Asian and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth. Emphasis added. Now, here’s Bloomberg’s take on the same story:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-lowers-lng-growth-outlook-084503930.html Shell Plc said demand for liquefied natural gas by 2040 will be slightly lower than previously forecast as the world prepares for life beyond fossil fuels. LOL

SHEL boosts dividend again—authorizes $3.5B buyback in_ next_3mo:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-070300226.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-fourth-quarter-2023-070200406.html

This is SHEL’s second dividend boost in the past 12 months. The new annualized payout is $2.752/ADS (up from the prior annualized rate of $2.648 in effect during 2H23). At the current share price (~$64), the new annualized payout is a yield of 4.1%.

SHEL 3Q23 CC slides:

https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/_jcr_content/root/main/section_1564161910/simple_copy_copy_cop/list_copy_1861700816/list_item_copy_11409_233215833/links/item3.stream/1698884784858/6d26f9ea0548ac1400eab49915d70b3b9cc5e4a6/q3-2023-slides.pdf

SHEL 3Q23 PR:

https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/_jcr_content/root/main/section_1564161910/simple_copy_copy_cop/list_copy_1861700816/list_item_copy_11409_233215833/links/item0.stream/1698884782483/509b6a41bee1c016b10f6b3e317e4dac20004419/q3-2023-quarterly-press-release.pdf

SHEL says_its_own_stock_is_a_better investment than M&A; 5-minute promotional video from CFO:

SHEL reports 3Q23 results—boosts buyback authorization:

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/shell-earnings-rose-on-higher-energy-prices-launches-3-5-bln-buyback-5ca6b1a6 Shell’s third-quarter earnings rose [relative to 2Q23] on higher refining margins, oil prices and gas and oil sales… The energy giant on Thursday reported adjusted earnings of $6.22 billion for the quarter, up from $5.07 billion in the preceding quarter, but a slight miss to market expectations of $6.25 billion provided by Vara Research.

The oil-and-gas major launched a $3.5 billion share buyback to complete by its fourth-quarter results announcement, following buybacks of $3 billion during the third quarter. Shell had guided for a buyback program of at least $2.5 billion.

SHEL dials back on carbon-offsets program:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europes-biggest-oil-company-quietly-000104402.html

The change since the new CEO came on board in Jan 2023 is palpable.

[duplicate]

New $3B share buyback to_be_completed_by 11/1/23:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-060300043.html

SHEL 2Q23 results…

PR:
https://www.shell.com/content/dam/shell/assets/en/business-functions/investor/results-and-reporting/documents/2023/q2/q2-2023-quarterly-press-release.pdf

CC slides:
https://www.shell.com/content/dam/shell/assets/en/business-functions/investor/results-and-reporting/documents/2023/q2/q2-2023-slides.pdf

6-minute video:
https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/latest-results.html#quarterly-results-q-a-session

SHEL slide sets from today’s webcast…

Pdf with slides only:
https://www.shell.com/content/shell/corporate/global/en_gb/investors/investor-presentations/capital-markets-day-2023/_jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/text_1695238364_copy_695577015.multi.stream/1686739511216/018241635a98a83269986e2b3fab2365078083ce/CMD23-slides.pdf

Pdf with slides and prepared remarks:
https://www.shell.com/content/shell/corporate/global/en_gb/investors/investor-presentations/capital-markets-day-2023/_jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/text_1695238364_copy_695577015.multi.stream/1686759610124/28de8452b16d6b197c9f75711276d5337bec6b46/cmd23-slides-with-prepared-remarks.pdf

SHEL boosts dividend, buybacks—cuts 2024-2025 cap-ex:

https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2023/shell-to-deliver-more-value-with-less-emissions.html • Shareholder distributions increased to 30-40% of cash flow from operations (CFFO) through the cycle [up from the prior range of 20-30%]

o 15% increase in dividend per share effective Q2 2023

o Share buybacks of at least $5 billion for the second half of 2023

• Capital spending reduced to $22-25 billion per year for 2024 and 2025 [down from $23-27B budgeted for 2023]

• Annual operating cost structurally reduced by $2-3 billion by end 2025 Moreover, SHEL intends to increase LNG production and keep oil production flat for the rest of the decade; previously, SHEL said it would reduce oil production by 1-2% per annum.

These announcements were made in conjunction with SHEL’s Capital Markets Day webcast in New York today.

Well, final straw. I am now boycotting Shell. 1) was cleaning out my car and had quite a bit of trash that built up. Was throwing away so then I could vacuum. Some ass yelled at me to take my trash home, but I was coming from a picnic. 2) then I was going to vaccum. Cost .75 cents put in. vacuum couldn't suck the dick on a donkey let alone vacuum my car out. So, they ripped my off. How many others have been ripped off? Quite a few is my guess. NEVER AGAIN!!!

SHEL 1Q23 results—lower_oil_prices_offset_by_gains_in chemicals and trading—new $4B buyback to be completed in next three months (following full implementation of the $4B buyback announced in Feburary):

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-maintains-pace-buybacks-profit-070219745.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-first-quarter-2023-060000421.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-060300236.html

SHEL reports record-high 2022 profit—boosts dividend—starts_$4B_accelerated_buyback (to be completed before 5/4/23):

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-070300957.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-fourth-quarter-2022-070200422.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-070300957.html

Approximately 60% of 4Q22 profit came from the LNG business.

The annualized dividend per ADS was boosted 15% to $2.30 (from $2.00). At the current ADS share price ($57.26), the yield is 4.0%.

Despite all of the above, SHEL is trading slightly down today because investors think SHEL’s business can’t get any better.

SHEL shakes up senior management:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-announces-executive-committee-070000756.html

I doubt that this will make much, if any, difference to the bottom line.

SHEL pre-announces strong 4Q22 results due to LNG business:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-fourth-quarter-2022-note-070000362.html

SHEL will report official 4Q22 results on 2/2/23.

SHEL acquires European biogas company for $2B:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-buys-nature-energy-2-183049575.html

Is this is the “transformative” deal that SHEL’s incoming CEO was talking about two months ago (#msg-170019624)?

SHEL pushes back on UK’s increased “windfall” tax:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-reconsiders-25bn-investment-uk-190314142.html [UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer] increased the so-called energy profits levy on North Sea oil and gas producers from 25% to 35%, while also announcing it would be in place until 2028 rather than 2025, adding £19.4bn to the existing bill. SHEL’s outgoing CEO has been barking that SHEL’s taxes are too low (#msg-170300650), so the company’s pushback now doesn’t have much oomph, IMO.

SHEL’s 53-min Q&A session with analysts:

SHEL 3Q22 CC slides:

https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/2022/q3-2022/_jcr_content/par/toptasks_1119141760__237662996.stream/1666826532698/313969f4bf5066226b15bfce3c5ac18929da62d4/q3-2022-slides.pdf

SHEL’s outgoing CEO is almost begging for a “windfall” tax on oil & gas profits:

https://www.ft.com/content/e04e4bbc-7205-4999-80a4-1fd7e0b34d8f

He can’t be fired anymore, so he can say whatever he wants, LOL.

SHEL reports 3Q22 results—boosts dividend 15%—authorizes new $4B share buyback:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-publishes-third-quarter-060100724.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-3rd-quarter-2022-060000371.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-commencement-share-buyback-060300937.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-shell-posts-9-5-062417843.html

SHEL—(-5%)—pre-announces weak 3Q22:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-third-quarter-2022-note-060000198.html

The weakness was spread across all segments, but especially notable was that margins in the chemicals segment were negative $27/tonne, compared with (positive) $86/tonne in 2Q22.

WSJ musings on SHEL’s CEO change:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-shells-priorities-follow-the-money-11663265679

Shell logs_record_quarterly_profit—commits_to $6B share buyback during_next_3_months (in addition to $8.5B buybacks already completed during 2022):

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-shell-smashes-record-again-061959174.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-publishes-second-quarter-060200787.html

SHEL chart

SHEL derives only 4% of its global profit from the UK, so the “windfall profits” tax will barely affect the bottom line.

UK imposes 25% “windfall profits” tax on oil/gas businesses:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-slaps-25-windfall-tax-on-profits-of-oil-and-gas-companies

SHEL faces prospect of UK “windfall profits” tax after reporting highest quarterly profit ever:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shells-foggy-outlook-sways-investors-but-not-politicians-11651761764

1Q22 PR (full version):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-first-quarter-2022-060000358.html

1Q22 PR (abbreviated version):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-publishes-first-quarter-060100573.html

Next stage of share-repurchase plan:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-announces-second-tranche-share-060300946.html

Two slide sets from SHEL today….

Integrated Gas Update:
https://www.shell.com/investors/investor-presentations/2022-investor-presentations/lng-outlook-2022-and-shell-insights-integrated-gas-business-update/_jcr_content/par/textimage_6665.stream/1645291670085/be1cf6acf49abb52da10d9504ca61c47b4e461df/integrated-gas-market-update.pdf

2022 LNG outlook:
https://www.shell.com/promos/energy-and-innovation/v1/lng-outlook-2022-report/_jcr_content.stream/1645378179742/3399fc5b65329ddf5fda80ad6cf2f6eab2abd9e5/shell-lng-outlook-2022.pdf

Shell Plc. (NYSE:RDS.A) just stunned us with a discovery announcement at its offshore Graff-1 well in Namibia.

The Graff-1 well results showed at least two reservoirs containing what Reuters sources have called “a significant amount of oil and gas”, which we estimate could be worth up to $29 billion at $88 oil.

Shell’s Namibia discovery is on the Petroleum Exploration License 39, 45% owned by Shell, and 45% owned by Qatar Petroleum. The National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR) owns the final 10%.

The government of Namibia is expected to make an announcement on the details of Graff-1 next week, while Namibia’s Minister of Energy and Mines said it was in the final stages of data collection to thoroughly assess the find’s potential.

Shell’s success could trigger an increased interest in further exploring the country’s oil resources.

Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shell-Is-Betting-Big-On-Namibias-Oil-Boom.html

Booming prices for oil and natural gas propelled Shell’s profit in the fourth quarter of 2021, lifting its adjusted earnings to $6.39 billion, up from $393 million a year earlier, the company reported Thursday.

Shell, Europe’s largest energy company, also said that it would accelerate returns to shareholders, buying back $8.5 billion in shares in the first half of 2022 — a big increase on the total of $3.5 billion set aside for buybacks in 2021.

Shell also said it would increase the dividend it pays to shareholders by 4 percent, to 25 cents per share for the first quarter.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/business/shell-4q-earnings.html

Shell will increase its dividend and buy back more shares after high prices for oil and gas helped it deliver bumper full-year earnings after a strong fourth quarter.

The UK-headquartered oil group’s adjusted earnings for 2021 — the profit measure most closely tracked by analysts — rose to $19.3bn, from $4.8bn a year earlier when the pandemic hit oil demand.

Earnings for the last three months of the year were $6.4bn, beating average analyst estimates of $5.2bn and up from $393mn in the same period a year earlier and $2.9bn in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/ca4fba8b-5ba4-4bde-9957-a3e17d937fb7

SHEL factoid—2021 operating cash flow was $6B greater than in 2018, when the average Brent price was similar to the average Brent price in 2021.

SHEL 4Q21 results…

12-min CEO/CFO video:
https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/2021/q4-2021.html#webcast

https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/2021/q4-2021/_jcr_content/par/grid_copy/p1/toptasks.stream/1643877415631/0e614fee8925bcdb42b1112611ebdc7922cf9514/q4-2021-presentation-transcript.pdf (transcript)

PR:
https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/2021/q4-2021/_jcr_content/par/toptasks_1119141760_.stream/1643817920231/fbeb170f95c803e63dcf2659504dc76fca745ae5/q4-2021-quarterly-press-release.pdf

CC slides:
https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/2021/q4-2021/_jcr_content/par/grid_1743187043_copy/p1/toptasks_1914866519.stream/1643828084813/9c895d814c2540cf227c2d9d35da0992fa4c0c29/q4-2021-slides.pdf

Shell (SHEL.L) again boosted its dividend and share repurchases on Thursday after fourth quarter profits hit their highest in eight years, fuelled by higher oil and gas prices and strong gas trading performance.

The strong results cap a dramatic recovery in 2021 for Shell and the oil and gas sector after energy demand and prices collapsed in 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shell shares were up 0.7% by 1448 GMT, compared with a 0.5% decline for the broader European energy index (.SXEP).

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-again-boosts-dividend-buybacks-profits-soar-2022-02-03/

Additional background:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-sets-expected-timetable-simplification-140000995.html