Global Stocks on Track for Worst Quarter Since 2008
March 31 2020 - 6:07AM
Dow Jones News
By Joanne Chiu and Anna Isaac
Global stocks ticked higher Tuesday, with markets returning to
relative calm at the end of a quarter that is poised to be the
worst for equities since the 2008 crisis as efforts to halt the
coronavirus pandemic shuts down large parts of the economy
world-wide.
U.S. futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up
0.2%, suggesting that the blue-chip stocks gauge may climb for a
second consecutive day after the opening bell in New York.
The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8%, putting it on
course for its worst quarterly performance in over 17 years. Major
Asia-Pacific indexes were mixed by the end of trading, with Japan's
Nikkei 225 down 0.9%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed
1.9%.
Investors are taking stock after a tumultuous six weeks that saw
a global rout in equities, bonds, commodities and many currencies,
leaving some emerging markets at a heightened risk of default. The
MSCI All Country World Index has lost 21.3% in value since the
start of the year in dollar terms, as of Monday, putting it on
track for the worst quarter since December 2008.
The erosion of value in financial markets in recent weeks was
exacerbated by factors including hedge funds' increased use of
computer-driven trading models, big asset managers' push to divest
even the safest assets and hold more cash, and investors urgently
unwinding risky bets made with borrowed funds. Central banks led by
the Federal Reserve have been forced into emergency interventions
to boost funding in credit markets and ensure an adequate supply of
U.S. dollars to calm the worst of the anxiety.
"There's a lot of uncertainty out there: that alone is a reason
to be cautious in markets," said Salman Baig, a portfolio manager
at Swiss investment firm Unigestion. "The figures for the
macroeconomic picture show very significant contractions. It's not
going to be permanent, but it will be severe."
Equity markets may see a return of volatility when businesses
start reporting quarterly performance and earnings in a few weeks,
Mr. Baig said.
On Tuesday, signs of a rebound in the Chinese economy helped
calm market sentiment. An official gauge of China's manufacturing
activity climbed sharply in March as factories resumed work
following months of a near-total shutdown, though economists warned
that business activity remains far from normal.
"China has shown signs already that its economy may be picking
back up. It's leading the way and showing that the same could be
achieved in other major economies if the virus is kept under
control," said Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG Bank in
London. "Equity markets have stabilized over the last week in
response to the powerful policy actions from central banks and
governments."
The containment measures in some parts of Europe may also be
helping slow the spread of the virus, Mr. Hardman said. Meanwhile,
the global economy is headed for a sharp contraction in the first
half of the year, he cautioned.
"The data still paints a bleak picture," Mr. Hardman said. "The
hope is that in the second half of the year, the virus may be
contained and it can recover. If the disruption continues in the
back end of the year, that's a different story."
Oil prices rebounded Tuesday after hitting multiyear lows at the
start of the week. The main U.S. crude-futures gauge rallied almost
6% to $21.21 a barrel, after settling at an 18-year low Monday. The
index has lost almost two-thirds of its value this year. Brent
crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 2.8%.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 0.682%,
from 0.667% Monday, signaling an increase in investors' risk
appetite as they left the perceived safety of government bonds.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Many investors are in a wait-and-see mode, as the U.S., Europe
and many Asian countries have rolled out very sizable fiscal
stimulus packages, said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for the
Asia-Pacific region at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
"Whether we need more depends on whether the pandemic will force
a longer period of social distancing and lockdown," Mr. Hui
said.
The decline in Australian equities helped the S&P/ASX 200
index conclude its worst-ever quarter, dropping more than 24%.
"The challenge has shifted from supply chains and domestic
demand to external demand as the U.S. and Europe are going through
probably their deepest contraction in history in the next few
months," said Mr. Hui. "That is going to have a knock-on effect on
Chinese exports."
Write to Joanne Chiu at joanne.chiu@wsj.com and Anna Isaac at
anna.isaac@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2020 06:52 ET (10:52 GMT)
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