Mature Response to Natural Keenness: LEX COLUMN - Endesa/Gas Natural
October 05 2005 - 9:02AM
Business Wire
The following is an article from the Lex Column issued yesterday in
the Financial Times, European Edition (page 16). Endesa (NYSE: ELE)
has taken a magisterial 27 days to defend itself from a hostile
Euros 22.5bn bid from Gas Natural, its smaller rival. The content
and the timing of its response are mature. It has not whinged about
political interference. Catalonia's political establishment,
backing Gas Natural, may want to play God. Endesa's owners, 45 per
cent foreigners, adhere to the gospel of price. Endesa has some
strong arguments. The premium to the undisturbed price is a low 15
per cent. Gas Natural shareholder Repsol would own 13 per cent of
the combined entity. It recently said it would sell down, creating
an overhang. La Caixa, an unquoted Catalan bank with a political
mandate, would have 15 per cent. Critically, the low Euros 7.8bn
cash component would be financed by selling Euros 7bn-Euros 9bn of
Endesa assets, mainly to rival Iberdrola. Since the price for this
is unknown, it is impossible to evaluate the true worth of the
offer. Strategically, it is unclear what the benefit of integrating
gas distribution and Endesa's power business is, beyond a simple
diversification effect. Adding Gas Natural's Euros 14bn enterprise
value to Endesa's Euros 48bn EV should create synergies. However,
logically, selling Euros 7bn-Euros 9bn of Endesa assets should have
the opposite effect. Endesa has committed itself to return Euros
7bn in cash over five years and raised its long-term guidance to
hysterical levels. But its main weapon is that the offer is not
convincing. Gas Natural is keen, but in a hostile, share-financed
reverse takeover, enthusiasm is not enough.
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