WASHINGTON, Sept. 8, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Americans'
attitudes toward the housing market continued to soften in August
and suggest that housing activity may resume its modest recovery in
2015 after some pullback this year, according to results from
Fannie Mae's August 2014 National
Housing Survey. Despite ongoing improvements in the labor market
this year, consumers' view on their income trend during the past 12
months appears to be more bearish. In addition, the share of
consumers who said now is a good time to buy a home dipped for the
second consecutive month, falling six percentage points since June
to 64 percent – tying the all-time survey low.
"The August National Housing Survey results lend support to our
forecast that 2015 will likely not be a breakout year for housing,"
said Doug Duncan, senior vice
president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "The deterioration in
consumer attitudes about the current home buying environment
reflects a shift away from record home purchase affordability
without enough momentum in consumer personal financial sentiment to
compensate for it. To date, this year's labor market strength has
not translated into sufficient income gains to inspire confidence
among consumers to purchase a home, even in the current favorable
interest rate environment. Our third quarter Mortgage Lender
Sentiment Survey results, to be released later this month, are
expected to show whether mortgage demand from the lender
perspective is in line with consumer housing sentiment."
SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS
Homeownership and Renting
- The average 12-month home price change expectation fell to 2.1
percent.
- The share of respondents who say home prices will go up in the
next 12 months held steady at 42 percent. The share who say home
prices will go down increased to 9.0 percent.
- The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up in
the next 12 months fell by four percentage points to 50
percent.
- Those who say it is a good time to buy a house fell to 64
percent, matching the all-time low. Those who say it is a good time
to sell also decreased—to 38 percent.
- The average 12-month rental price change expectation rose to
4.1 percent.
- The percentage of respondents who expect home rental prices to
go up in the next 12 months increased to 53 percent.
- The share of respondents who think it would be easy to get a
home mortgage today increased by one percentage point.
- The share who say they would buy if they were going to move
fell to 64 percent, while the share who would rent increased to 32
percent—the narrowest gap in over a year.
The Economy and Household Finances
- The share of respondents who say the economy is on the wrong
track fell by three percentage points from last month to 56
percent.
- The percentage of respondents who expect their personal
financial situation to get better over the next 12 months increased
to 44 percent.
- The share of respondents who say their household income is
significantly higher than it was 12 months ago dropped by five
percentage points to 23 percent.
- The share of respondents who say their household expenses are
significantly higher than they were 12 months ago remained at 36
percent.
The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the
Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polled 1,000 Americans via live
telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and
renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership
distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer
confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100
questions used to track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared
to the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and
shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry
partners and market participants target our collective efforts to
stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support
in the future.
For detailed findings from the August
2014 survey, as well as a podcast providing an audio
synopsis of the survey results and technical notes on survey
methodology and questions asked of respondents associated with each
monthly indicator, please visit the Fannie Mae Monthly National
Housing Survey page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site
are in-depth topic analyses, which provide a detailed assessment of
combined data results from three monthly studies. The August 2014 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
was conducted between August 1, 2014
and August 24, 2014. Most of the data
collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period.
Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination
with Fannie Mae.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of
Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included
in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie
Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number
of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this
information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors.
Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates,
forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it
does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials
is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose.
Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these
views could produce materially different results. The analyses,
opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the
ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date
indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae
or its management.
Fannie Mae enables people to buy, refinance, or rent a
home.
Visit us at
http://www.fanniemae.com/progress.
Follow us on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/FannieMae.
SOURCE Fannie Mae