New Vehicle Sales Expected to Remain Flat in Q2 Despite Ongoing Affordability Hurdles and a Challenging June, According to Edmunds
June 27 2024 - 8:03AM
The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 4,112,804 new
cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the second quarter of
2024, which will be a 0.1% increase from the second quarter of 2023
and a 8.5% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024.
“Despite elevated interest rates, new vehicle sales looked ready
to pack some punch in Q2 thanks to healthier inventory levels and
the revival of summertime incentives. But the CDK cyberattacks have
thrown a monkey wrench into sales during the second half of June,
affecting what is arguably one of the most lucrative and busiest
times of the month and quarter for dealerships,” said Jessica
Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “Although the impact of these
attacks will be different from dealer to dealer, this event is
another speed bump on the automotive industry’s long road to
recovery. The good news is — unlike other black swan events that
the industry has contended with in the past — sales shouldn’t be
lost or severely deferred, but rather pushed into the third
quarter. And in a testament to the resilience of dealerships,
affected stores have actively been creating work-arounds much like
they did at the start of the pandemic to ensure
continuity.”
Edmunds analysts remain optimistic about sales through the rest
of the summer and note that, even in light of recent events,
consumers shouldn’t feel the need to drastically move up timelines
or change how they’ve been shopping for vehicles. As always, they
emphasize the need to be diligent about researching and budgeting,
especially when financing purchases.
“Unlike previous years when inventory was extremely limited and
shoppers had to act right away to get the vehicles they wanted,
consumers who don’t immediately require a new vehicle have the
luxury of time, so use it to your advantage when shopping around
and searching for favorable interest rates,” said Ivan Drury,
Edmunds’ director of insights. “But to those with more pressing
purchase needs due to an accident or a hefty repair bill: Don’t
fret too much about missing out on future deals if you need to buy
right away,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “The
market has dramatically improved from last year, but we’re still a
ways away from any major summer selldown events or 2025 model year
vehicles."
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
SALES VOLUME |
2024 Q2
Forecast |
2023 Q2
Sales |
2024 Q1
Sales |
Change
from 2023 Q2 |
Change
from 2024 Q1 |
GM |
712,734 |
692,176 |
595,599 |
3.0% |
19.7% |
Toyota |
637,732 |
568,965 |
565,516 |
12.1% |
12.8% |
Ford |
549,602 |
531,662 |
508,092 |
3.4% |
8.2% |
Hyundai/Kia |
452,695 |
438,536 |
379,714 |
3.2% |
19.2% |
Honda |
367,715 |
347,026 |
333,825 |
6.0% |
10.2% |
Stellantis |
346,025 |
437,001 |
334,241 |
-20.8% |
3.5% |
Nissan |
235,390 |
244,353 |
252,735 |
-3.7% |
-6.9% |
VW/Audi |
144,840 |
135,071 |
138,625 |
7.2% |
4.5% |
Industry |
4,112,804 |
4,110,471 |
3,790,405 |
0.1% |
8.5% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share |
2024 Q2
Forecast |
2023 Q2
Sales |
2024 Q1
Sales |
Change
from 2023 Q2 |
Change
from 2024 Q1 |
GM |
17.3% |
16.8% |
15.7% |
2.9% |
10.3% |
Toyota |
15.5% |
13.8% |
14.9% |
12.0% |
3.9% |
Ford |
13.4% |
12.9% |
13.4% |
3.3% |
-0.3% |
Hyundai/Kia |
11.0% |
10.7% |
10.0% |
3.2% |
9.9% |
Honda |
8.9% |
8.4% |
8.8% |
5.9% |
1.5% |
Stellantis |
8.4% |
10.6% |
8.8% |
-20.9% |
-4.6% |
Nissan |
5.7% |
5.9% |
6.7% |
-3.7% |
-14.2% |
VW/Audi |
3.5% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
7.2% |
-3.7% |
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###
Talia James-Armand
Edmunds
310-491-8738
pr@edmunds.com