New research1 published by Willis Research Network partner Cloud to
Street provides ground-breaking insights into rising flood risk
globally. Cloud to Street uses direct satellite observations of
flooding and refines this geospatial data with machine learning, AI
and other methods instead of modelled estimates which are widely
used in the insurance industry.
The research, published as the Global Flood
Database, offers a comprehensive view of flood exposure around the
world and underscores how alternative methods of analysing flood
risks through platforms like Cloud to Street allows insurers to
understand flooding in a new and revolutionary way. The entire
database is hosted openly at
Global-flood-database.cloudtostreet.ai.
The analysis reveals that the proportion of
global population exposed to floods has grown by 24% since the turn
of the millennium, a tenfold difference from what scientists
previously thought. Growing exposure and a growing number of flood
events are behind the rapid increase, according to the
research.
Since Cloud to Street joined the Willis Research
Network in 2020, the partnership has worked to address the
insurance gap in the developing world, where some 90% of economic
losses from disasters remain uninsured, putting economically
vulnerable households at greater risk and slowing recovery efforts
following disasters.
Today, most flood maps rely on modelling that
simulates floods based on available ground data, such as elevation,
rainfall and ground sensors. These models are time intensive and
can have substantial limitations, entirely missing flooding
incidents in regions not historically prone to flooding. This leads
to a large flood insurance coverage gap and low flood insurance
penetration worldwide, where coverage is either not available or
inadequate.
In contrast, Cloud to Street’s Global Flood
Database relies on satellite observations of actual flooding over
the past two decades, which marks a step change in developing a
comprehensive view of global flood risk. This allows additional
analyses of the scope, impact, and trends of recent flooding. It
represents a major advancement in the field of flood mapping and is
essential to capture climate change’s accelerating, record-breaking
disasters, while also enabling greater flood insurance penetration
worldwide.
Bessie Schwarz, CEO and Co-founder of Cloud to
Street, said: “More people and more assets are impacted by flooding
than any other climate-fuelled disaster. The Global Flood Database
will help insurers understand the changing nature of flood risk and
offer more competitive insurance coverage. We are proud to enable
governments and insurers to protect millions of people and billions
in assets they have never been able to before.”
Simon Young, a senior director in the Climate
and Resilience Hub at Willis Towers Watson added, “The
collaboration between Cloud to Street and the Willis Research
Network is already delivering beyond our expectations, particularly
in the research and development of tools to better understand flood
risk and mitigate the economic impact of flooding for communities
throughout the world. Alongside our Willis Re and Alternative Risk
Transfer units, the Climate and Resilience Hub is also creating
innovative parametric solutions building on this rapidly evolving
flood mapping technology.”
The researchers looked at daily satellite
imagery to estimate both the extent of flooding and the number of
people exposed to over 900 large flood events between 2000 and
2018. They found that between 255 and 290 million people were
directly affected - and between 2000 and 2015, the number of people
living in these flooded locations increased by 58-86 million.
Further findings from the research:
-
By 2030 the model estimates that climate and demographic change
will add 25 new countries to the 32 already experiencing increasing
floods.
-
Despite representing less than 2 percent of floods, dam breaks had
the highest increased incidence (177%) in proportion of population
exposed.
-
Population growth in flooded areas is driven by people moving into
flood-prone areas—and economic development in those regions.
Vulnerable populations often have no choice but to settle in flood
zones.
-
Nearly 90% of flood events occurred in South and Southeast Asia,
with the large basins (Indus, Ganges-Brahmaputra, and Mekong)
having the largest absolute numbers of people exposed and increased
proportions of population exposed to inundation.
-
The satellite data also uncovered previously unidentified increases
in flood exposure in Southern Asia, Southern Latin America, and the
Middle East.
It is hoped that the database will provide a
unique and credible benchmark for the insurance industry to assess
flood risks, both from an aggregated annual average loss
perspective, as well as single extreme loss-making floods. This can
be useful for reinsurance practices undertaken by Willis Re,
involving model comparison, developing new views of flood risk, and
testing the efficiency of various reinsurance structures. It can
equally be used to support disaster resilience and post-event
analysis as the insurance industry and governments prepare for, and
respond to, large-scale flooding in all parts of the world.
As flood risk is expected to increase through
population changes and urbanisation, overlaid onto a background
trend driven by climate change, the dataset will provide an ongoing
and essential view of risk to support humanitarian and risk
management efforts.
About the ResearchThe study was
led by scientists at Cloud to Street, a global flood tracking and
risk analytics platform for disaster managers and insurers, who
have been members of the Willis Research Network since May 2020.
Co-authors from NASA, Google Earth Outreach, University of Arizona,
Columbia University, University of Michigan, University of
Colorado, University of Texas at Austin, and the University of
Washington have helped to develop the Global Flood Database, which
is the key output from the research. The database sets a new
standard for providing a view of the true scope of flood risk as
the largest and most accurate dataset of observed historical floods
in existence.
About Cloud to StreetCloud to
Street is the leading authority on remote flood analytics, using
satellites and AI to monitor flood risk and track flooding anywhere
on Earth in near real time. We fuse data from more than 15
satellites as well as other, non-conventional sources to enable
governments to leapfrog legacy flood information systems and help
insurers to accurately underwrite flood risk with new products such
as parametric insurance.
That’s why leading global organisations like the
UN World Food Programme and Willis Towers Watson partner with us to
monitor and protect 122 million people living in flood-prone
regions. Our investors include Collaborative Fund, Lowercarbon
Capital, Floating Point, and Mercy Corps, enabling us to expand the
technology to even more flood-prone communities and aiding insurers
to cover billions of currently unprotected assets worldwide.
About Willis Research
NetworkThe Willis Research Network
(WRN) is an award-winning collaboration,
which harnesses over 60 partners in science, academia, think tanks,
and the private sector to form innovative partnerships with the
risk management and insurance industries; supports and influences
science to improve the understanding and quantification of risk and
opportunities for the benefit of our clients and society.
About Willis Towers
WatsonWillis Towers Watson (NASDAQ: WLTW) is a leading
global advisory, broking, and solutions company that helps clients
around the world turn risk into a path for growth. With roots
dating to 1828, Willis Towers Watson has 45,000 employees serving
more than 140 countries and markets. We design and deliver
solutions that manage risk, optimise benefits, cultivate talent,
and expand the power of capital to protect and strengthen
institutions and individuals. Our unique perspective allows us to
see the critical intersections between talent, assets, and ideas —
the dynamic formula that drives business performance. Together, we
unlock potential. Learn more at willistowerswatson.com.
Media contactsAndrew Collis +44
(0) 7932 725267 | andrew@acolliscommunications.com
Miles Russell +44 (0) 7903 262118 |
Miles.Russell@WillisTowersWatson.com_________________________________________
1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03695-w
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