Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE:SGL) is a
non-diversified, closed-end management investment company seeking a
high level of current income as a primary objective and capital
appreciation as a secondary objective through investments in US and
foreign debt securities.
Fund Commentary for the second quarter of 2015 from UBS
Global Asset Management (Americas) Inc. (“UBS Global AM”), the
Fund’s investment advisor
Market review
The global fixed income market largely produced weak results
during the second quarter. The overall US fixed income market
declined given rising Treasury yields as economic data generally
improved. In addition, expectations increased that the Federal
Reserve Board (the "Fed") would institute its first rate hike in
nearly a decade before the end of the year. All told, the yield on
the two-year Treasury rose from 0.56% to 0.64%, whereas the yield
on the 10-year Treasury moved from 1.94% to 2.35% during the second
quarter. At its meeting that concluded on June 17, 2015, the Fed
said "The Committee currently anticipates that, even after
employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels,
economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target
federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in
the longer run." Overseas, government yields generally moved
higher. Economic growth in both the eurozone and Japan improved,
but this was partially overshadowed by the escalating crisis in
Greece and fears of contagion.
The overall US bond market, as measured by the Barclays US
Aggregate Index, fell 1.68% during the second quarter, while the
global government bond markets declined 1.55% over the quarter, as
measured by the Citigroup World Government Bond Index
(unhedged).1,2 In contrast, the Citigroup World Government Bond
Index (hedged in US dollars) returned -2.66% for the quarter.3
Sector overview
Most US spread sectors also posted negative total returns during
the second quarter, as they were impacted by rising Treasury yields
and periods of investor risk aversion.4 After a strong start in
April, the emerging markets debt asset class gave back its gains as
the quarter progressed. This turnaround was triggered by rising US
Treasury yields, concerns over China's economy and several
geopolitical issues. All told, the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets
Bond Index Global (EMBI Global), declined 0.29% during the
quarter.5 Local currency emerging markets debt, as measured by the
J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Global
Diversified (GBI-EM Global Diversified), declined 0.96% during the
quarter.6
Performance review
During the second quarter of 2015, the Fund posted a net asset
value total return of 0.16% and a market price total return of
-0.08%. On a net asset value total return basis, the Fund
outperformed its benchmark, the Strategic Global Benchmark (the
“Index”), which returned -1.13% over the quarter.7
Among the contributors to the Fund's performance were its
duration and yield curve positioning. Having a duration that was
shorter than that of the Index was rewarded given the rising rate
environment. From a yield curve perspective, an underweight to the
belly of the curve (7-20 year maturities) was beneficial for
performance. The Fund's security selection in a number of sectors
was also additive for performance. In particular, our investment
grade and high yield corporate bond holdings were positive for
returns. Security selection of agency mortgage-backed securities
("MBS") was also beneficial.
On the downside, the Fund's overweights to investment grade and
high yield corporate bonds detracted from performance, as their
spreads widened. However, this was not enough to offset the
benefits of our security selection in the credit space. An
out-of-benchmark allocation to MBS was also a drag on results.
Elsewhere, the Fund's currency positioning modestly detracted from
performance. In particular, an overweight to the US dollar and
shorts to the euro and yen were headwinds for the Fund's
results.
Within the emerging markets debt asset class, our positioning in
Venezuelan and Nigerian dollar-denominated debt, as well as Russian
quasi-sovereigns, enhanced the Fund's performance during the second
quarter.8 Brazilian local duration exposure also contributed to the
Fund's results. On the downside, an underweight to Ukraine was
modestly negative for performance. Investor sentiment for Ukraine
improved given ongoing negotiations in its conflict with Russia.
However, we maintain our underweight as the country's economic
backdrop remains extremely weak, which increases the likelihood of
a more difficult debt restructuring.
Outlook
We have an overall positive outlook for the US economy. After a
weak start to the year, economic data have improved in recent
months. The labor market continues to strengthen. The housing
market has shown signs of increased activity, and consumer
confidence has risen. That being said, growth for the year as a
whole will likely be far from robust. Overseas, economic growth in
Europe, while modest, has improved of late, as has growth in Japan.
Growth in China remains a concern, although its central bank has a
number of tools it can use to help spur its economy.
Turning to the fixed income market, credit spreads widened
during the second quarter. Looking ahead, we continue to believe we
are in the midst of a “coupon clipping” environment, as we feel we
are in the latter stages of the credit cycle. From a rate
perspective, much will depend on the Fed’s actions. We expect the
US central bank to begin the process of normalizing monetary policy
in late 2015. While we feel the Fed will take a conservative
approach, we believe the uncertainty surrounding rate hikes will
lead to periods of volatility in the fixed income market.
We have a cautious but somewhat improving medium-term outlook
for the emerging markets debt asset class. Growth in many
developing countries is showing signs of strengthening. This,
coupled with generally weaker local currencies, could have a
positive impact for emerging markets exporters. Finally, inflation
is relatively benign overall and, as such, we do not expect to see
policy tightening from emerging markets central banks in the
near-term. While certain geopolitical issues have been priced into
the market in our view, we expect to see continued periods of
elevated volatility. Within the asset class, we feel US
dollar-denominated debt should outperform local debt for the year
as a whole.
Portfolio statistics as of June 30,
20159 Top ten countries (bond holdings
only)10 Percentage of net
assets United States 40.6% Brazil
5.8 United Kingdom 5.5 New
Zealand 3.9 Canada 3.1
Germany 2.7 France 2.4
Mexico 2.3 Russia 1.9
Italy 1.9
Total
70.1%
Top ten currency breakdown (includes
all securities andother instruments)11
Percentage of net assets United States Dollar
75.1% Euro 8.3 New Zealand Dollar
4.4 British Pound 3.1 Australian Dollar
2.6 Brazilian Real 1.9 Canadian Dollar
0.8 Mexican Peso 0.6 Russian Ruble
0.4 Swedish Krona 0.1
Credit quality12
Percentage of net assets AAA
3.9% US Treasury13 3.7 US Agency13,14
2.0 AA 7.3 A 9.3 BBB 24.6
BB 17.9 B 9.2 CCC and Below
2.1 Non-rated 17.3 Cash and other assets, less
liabilities 2.7
Total
100.0
Characteristics
Net asset value per share15
$9.71 Market price per share15 $8.27 Duration16
5.1 yrs Weighted average maturity 7.7
yrs
1 The Barclays US Aggregate Index is an unmanaged broad-based
index designed to measure the US dollar-denominated, investment
grade, taxable bond market. The index includes bonds from the
Treasury, government-related, corporate, mortgage-backed,
asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed sectors. Investors
should note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees or
expenses.
2 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index is an unmanaged
market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the
performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment-grade
sovereign bonds with a one-year minimum maturity. Investors should
note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and
expenses.
3 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index (hedged in USD) is
an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index designed to
measure the performance of fixed-rate, local currency,
investment-grade sovereign bonds with a one-year minimum maturity
and is hedged back to the US dollar. Investors should note that
indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses.
4 A spread sector refers to non-government fixed income sectors,
such as investment grade or high yield bonds, commercial
mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), etc.
5 The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI
Global) is an unmanaged index which is designed to track total
returns for US dollar-denominated debt instruments issued by
emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities: Brady
bonds, loans and Eurobonds. Investors should note that indices do
not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses.
6 The J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Global
Diversified (GBI–EM) is an unmanaged index which is designed to
track the total returns for local currency debt instruments issued
by emerging market governments.
7 The Strategic Global Benchmark is an unmanaged index compiled
by the advisor, constructed as follows: 67% Citigroup World
Government Bond Index (WGBI) and 33% JP Morgan Emerging Markets
Bond Index Global (EMBI Global). Investors should note that indices
do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses.
8 Quasi-sovereign bonds are securities issued by entities
supported by the local government.
9 The Fund’s portfolio is actively managed, and its portfolio
composition will vary over time.
10 Excludes exposures obtained via derivatives (e.g.,
swaps).
11 Forward foreign currency contracts are reflected at
unrealized appreciation/depreciation; this may not align with the
risk exposure described in the portfolio commentary section which
reflects forward foreign currency contracts based on contract
notional amount. As of the most recent period end, June 30, 2015,
the Fund maintained a risk exposure to non-US dollar currencies
equal to approximately 28% of the Fund.
12 Credit quality ratings shown in the table are based on those
assigned by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a part of
McGraw-Hill Financial (“S&P”), to individual portfolio
holdings. S&P is an independent ratings agency. Rating
reflected represents S&P individual debt issue credit rating.
While S&P may provide a credit rating for a bond issuer (e.g.,
a specific company or country), certain issues, such as some
sovereign debt, may not be covered or rated and, therefore, are
reflected as non-rated for the purposes of this table. Credit
ratings range from AAA, being the highest, to D, being the lowest,
based on S&P’s measures; ratings of BBB or higher are
considered to be investment grade quality. Unrated securities do
not necessarily indicate low quality. Further information regarding
S&P’s rating methodology may be found on its website at
www.standardandpoors.com. Please note that any references to credit
quality made in the commentary preceding the table may reflect
ratings based on multiple providers (not just S&P) and thus may
not align with the data represented in this table.
13 S&P downgraded long-term US government debt on August 5,
2011 to AA+. Other rating agencies continue to rate long-term US
government debt in their highest ratings categories. The Fund’s
aggregate exposure to AA-rated debt as of June 30, 2014 would
include the percentages indicated above for AA, US Treasury and US
Agency debt but has been broken out into three separate categories
to facilitate understanding.
14 Includes agency debentures and agency mortgage-backed
securities.
15 Net asset value (NAV) and market price will fluctuate.
16 Duration is a measure of price sensitivity of a fixed income
investment or portfolio (expressed as % change in price) to a 1
percentage point (i.e., 100 basis points) change in interest rates,
accounting for optionality in bonds such as prepayment risk and
call/put features.
Any performance information reflects the deduction of the Fund’s
fees and expenses, as indicated in its shareholder reports, such as
investment advisory and administration fees, custody fees, exchange
listing fees, etc. It does not reflect any transaction charges that
a shareholder may incur when (s)he buys or sells shares (e.g., a
shareholder’s brokerage commissions).
Disclaimers Regarding Fund Commentary - The Fund
Commentary is intended to assist shareholders in understanding how
the Fund performed during the period noted. Views and opinions were
current as of the date of this press release. They are not
guarantees of performance or investment results and should not be
taken as investment advice. Investment decisions reflect a variety
of factors, and the Fund and UBS Global AM reserve the right to
change views about individual securities, sectors and markets at
any time. As a result, the views expressed should not be relied
upon as a forecast of the Fund’s future investment intent.
Past performance does not predict future performance. The return
and value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's
shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original
cost. Any Fund net asset value ("NAV") returns cited in a Fund
Commentary assume, for illustration only, that dividends and other
distributions, if any, were reinvested at the NAV on the payable
dates. Any Fund market price returns cited in a Fund Commentary
assume that all dividends and other distributions, if any, were
reinvested at prices obtained under the Fund's Dividend
Reinvestment Plan. Returns for periods of less than one year have
not been annualized. Returns do not reflect the deduction of taxes
that a shareholder would pay on Fund dividends and other
distributions, if any, or on the sale of Fund shares.
Investing in the Fund entails specific risks, such as
interest rate, credit and the risks associated with investing in
the securities of non-US issuers, including those located in
emerging market countries. The value of the Fund's
investments in foreign securities may fall due to adverse
political, social and economic developments abroad and due to
decreases in foreign currency values relative to the US
dollar. Further detailed information regarding the Fund,
including a discussion of principal objectives, principal
investment strategies and principal risks, may be found in the fund
overview located at
http://www.ubs.com/closedendfundsinfo. You may also
request copies of the fund overview by calling the Closed-End Funds
Desk at 888-793 8637.
©UBS 2015. All rights reserved.The key symbol and UBS are among
the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS.
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UBS Global Asset Management Closed-End Funds Desk:
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