Warm Arctic-Cold Continent events are expected to intensify
until the 2020s but decline post-2030s, impacting the global
weather dynamics.
GWANGJU, South Korea, April 18,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Copernicus
Climate Change Service, February 2024
was the warmest February ever recorded globally. However,
North America, Asia, and parts of Europe experienced record-breaking cold
temperatures. In some places, such as China's Mohe and Russia's Yakutsk, temperatures dipped to the
life-threatening lowest levels. Alarmingly, this juxtaposition of
increasing temperatures amidst extreme coldness pushes the future
of our planet's climate into uncertainty.
This paradoxical situation is captured by the Warm Arctic-Cold
Continent (WACC) phenomenon, where warm Arctic temperatures lead to
sea-ice decline and cold blasts across specific mid-latitude
regions. The Arctic's rapid warming indicates global climate
change. However, as global warming and the Arctic's temperature
keep increasing, it is unclear how WACC events will unfold in the
coming decades.
To bridge this gap, a research group, led by Professor Jin-Ho
Yoon and including Ph.D. student Yungi
Hong, both from the School of Earth Sciences and
Environmental Engineering at Gwangju Institute of Science and
Technology, Korea, has recently investigated the dynamics and
evolution of extreme winter weather events—technically known
as WACC. Using simulations of climate datasets, mainly
obtained from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble
Project, they forecasted the trajectory of WACC events in
East Asia and North America, spanning from 1920 to 2100. The
study's findings were published in the journal npj Climate
and Atmospheric Science on March
11, 2024.
Explaining their study, Prof. Yoon emphasizes, "The WACC
pattern has significantly influenced winter climates, but what we
see currently is merely the start of a drastic shift." The
research team found that despite global warming, WACC events have
continued to intensify until the 2020s. Prof. Yoon points out,
"These events will sharply decline post-2030s. Yet, this decline
does not mean reduced extreme weather events in the future.
Instead, winters will get warmer as global warming intensifies.
Although cold snaps will occur less frequently, they may have more
severe consequences when they do happen."
This declining trend will likely continue until the WACC
phenomenon almost disappears by the late 21st century, bringing new
extreme weather events.
These findings reshape our understanding of the WACC events and
highlight the need to update climate models for accurate
predictions, enhancing preparation and response strategies. The
findings also resonate with the hardships faced by communities
worldwide, especially those in regions historically affected by the
WACC.
With the drastic shift in the WACC trajectory lurking closer,
immediate action is thus needed to refine global climate strategies
and reassess how societies will prepare and adapt. In this regard,
Mr. Hong says, "Understanding the impact of the drastic shift in
WACC events and devising adaptation and mitigation
strategies determines the future of our winter climate,
and it's a stark reminder of the complexity of climate systems and
the unexpected outcomes of climate change."
Overall, this study is a compelling call for communities,
policymakers, and scientists to act. It is needed, now more than
ever, to collaborate and adapt as we navigate the path to
resilience against climate change!
***
Reference
Title of original paper: From peak to
plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold
continents Phenomenon
Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00611-7
About the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology
(GIST)
Website: http://www.gist.ac.kr/
Media Contact:
Chang-Sung
Kang
82 62 715 6253
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SOURCE Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST)