- Supported in part by lower listing prices, used-vehicle sales
are expected to finish 2024 at 19.9 million, up 3.1% from
2023.
- Wholesale values forecast to end 2024 lower by 0.6% year over
year, underperforming long-term averages of an approximate
gain of 2.3%.
- With the Manheim team monitoring activity closely
following Hurricane Helene, initial data suggests no storm-related
surge in demand nor increase in vehicle values.
ATLANTA, Oct. 7, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- Data released today by Cox Automotive showed that,
after two months of increases, wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a
mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) reversed course and
were lower in September by 0.5% compared to August. The Manheim
Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.0, a decline of 5.3%
from a year ago.
The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the change for
the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell only slightly.
The non-adjusted price in September decreased by 0.1% compared to
August, moving the unadjusted average price down 4.9% year over
year.
"Wholesale values reversed course and turned negative over the
month of September after rising in July and August," said
Jeremy Robb, senior director of
Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. "Non-adjusted
prices usually decline in September, and while that occurred this
year, prices fell less than they normally do for the month. Retail
used days' supply remains at lower levels than the last few years,
and off-lease maturities will continue to decline. The new normal
is likely that we continue to see wholesale depreciation; but it
may be more muted than the market is accustomed to for the rest of
the year."
Consumers continue to see used-vehicle prices that are lower
year over year, which is supporting higher retail used-vehicle
sales. According to Cox Automotive's vAuto Live Market View data,
the average retail listing price for a used vehicle, at
$25,278, is now lower by 0.7% over
the last four weeks and lower year over year by approximately 6%.
Used retail vehicle sales in September were down compared to
August, but higher year over year by 9% and are expected to finish
2024 at 19.9 million, up 3.1% year over year.
Hurricane Helene
While the human toll of Hurricane
Helene has been significant and the full measure of the devastation
is still being determined, initial estimates are that used vehicle
demand and prices will not be materially impacted to the extent
seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which came ashore in
Houston in August 2017. Harvey was a perfect storm in
that there was a significant lack of warning and preparation;
Harvey was a slow-moving storm characterized by significant
flooding across a high-population, vehicle-dense area, with
Houston being the fourth most
populous city in the U.S.
The Manheim team is monitoring activity closely to see if
patterns emerge that appear similar to those measured after major
storms such as Hurricane Harvey, Sandy and Katrina. So far, data
suggest no surge in demand nor increase in vehicle values, but
wholesale and used retail supply is currently tight, so conditions
are right for wholesale values to increase (or decline less than
normal for this time of year).
Updated 2024 MUVVI Forecast and Outlook
The revised
outlook for used-vehicle values at the end of 2024 shows a decline
of 0.6% year over year, implying fairly flat movement in the fourth
quarter.
"September was a return to normal in many ways," added Cox
Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan
Smoke. "September performed slightly better than anticipated
compared to our historical data and our expectations are Q4 will
follow suit: All signs indicate that used vehicle values will
remain flat through the remainder of the year."
Next year, with even fewer lease maturities, the Cox Automotive
team is expecting depreciation trends will be reduced versus what
is typically seen. The outlook for values at the end of 2025
is up 2.4%, and the initial estimate for 2026 is to see a gain of
2.6%. With the long-term bias move in the MUVVI index at
+2.3%, this means slightly lower overall depreciation in wholesale
values is expected in the years ahead.
For more perspective on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
performance in September and Q3, visit the Cox Automotive
Newsroom:
LINK TO COMMENTARY
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About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's
largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the
largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online
interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for
car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet
owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents
and a family of trusted brands that includes
Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®,
Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox
Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately
owned, Atlanta-based company with
$22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or
connect via @CoxAutomotive on
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and Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive