By Andrey Ostroukh And Chiara Albanese
MOSCOW--For months, Russia's ruble has been falling in line with
a decline in oil. But now, the selloff has stepped up a gear amid a
broad rout in emerging-market currencies.
On Monday the dollar shot above 61 against the battered Russian
currency, even despite a modest pickup in the price of oil, the
country's chief and crucial export. And talk of dollar selling on
the part of the central bank wasn't enough to turn the ruble
around, especially in light of the percentage-point rise in
interest rates imposed last week, which was more timid than some
market-watchers had been expecting. Local traders say the
atmosphere is darkening.
"There's no relief in sight, the mood on the market is
pessimistic. Any recovery in the ruble is used to buy into foreign
currencies," said Igor Akinshin, a trader at Alfa Bank.
Hit by capital flight, a sluggish economic performance and
Western sanctions, the ruble has been depreciating steadily in the
second half of this year. In January, one dollar bought 33 rubles.
A rapid drop in oil prices, which started in September, exacerbated
the trend and sent the ruble to record lows despite the central
bank's strive to halt its slide with massive currency
interventions.
"December could prove the worst month for the ruble this year.
In the meantime, the central bank is clearly reluctant to use
interest rates against the speculators," said Piotr Matys, rates
strategist at Rabobank.
Russian authorities, including president Vladimir Putin, say the
ruble's decline is the result of speculative activity, which they
vow to stamp out.
Russia's central bank, which acts as the country's financial
markets regulator, has ordered the Moscow stock exchange to stop
trading in some derivatives for some clients citing "possible
market manipulations."
The country's bond markets are also under strain. Russia's
dollar bond maturing in Sept. 2023 is yielding 7.102%, up from
6.633% on Friday. Yields rise when prices fall. Meanwhile, the cost
of insuring against a default in Russian government debt is rising.
It now costs $532,000 a year for five years to insure against a
failure to repay a notional $10 million of Russian debt, up from
$488,000 Friday.
Investors say a cocktail of a possible hawkish shift in tactics
from the U.S. Federal Reserve, whose two-day meeting ends
Wednesday, and the traditionally illiquid period at the end of the
calendar year, are making matters worse.
"Emerging market sentiment has really soured in this last month
along with commodity prices. This is now combining with seasonal
illiquidity to make markets go down in big steps. I don't think
anybody is willing to step in front of that in the last two weeks
of the year," said James Barrineau, co-head of emerging market debt
at Schroders.
In the long term, the 44% decline in oil prices this year should
be good news for countries such as India and Turkey, which import
almost all of their energy needs. Instead, their currencies Monday
skidded to their lowest point since January. Asian markets were hit
widely, particularly with investors unnerved by the prospect that
the Fed could signal a firm intention to start raising interest
rates, a risk that has long been a bugbear of this region and of
emerging markets globally.
Among the worst hit were the Indonesian rupiah, which plummeted
to its weakest level since the 1998 crisis, and stocks in Thailand,
which slumped as much as 9% before recovering. Losses in one market
are now leading to forced selling in others, investors say.
"It's classic portfolio contagion. The Indian rupee and the
Indonesia rupiah are getting sold because people are taking risk
off generally... India should be better off from lower oil prices.
It's a big importer," said Paul McNamara, an emerging-markets bonds
investor at GAM with around $6.5 billion under management.
Anjani Trivedi, Christopher Whittall and Ben Edwards contributed
to this article.
Write to Andrey Ostroukh at andrey.ostroukh@wsj.com and Chiara
Albanese at chiara.albanese@wsj.com.