Analysts Predict The Start Of Crypto’s First Ever Secular Bear Market
September 05 2024 - 7:00AM
NEWSBTC
A new narrative is emerging among seasoned crypto analysts who are
now forecasting the advent of the industry’s first ever secular
bear market. This prediction suggests a sweeping transformation
could be imminent, characterized by a prolonged downturn lasting
potentially for years, diverging from the relatively short-term
cycles typically associated with the crypto market. Crypto’s First
Ever Secular Bear Market The conversation around this shift was
sparked by a query to CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto), a
renowned crypto analyst with 417,000 followers on X, who was asked
about the impact of celebrities and sports stars entering the
crypto space with their own coin offerings. Responding to concerns
that this trend might dilute the purity and utility of
cryptocurrencies, @CredibleCrypto offered a decisive view on the
future trajectory of the market. “Most of this stuff will get wiped
out in the next bear market imo. Our first secular bear market in
this space since inception. The .com bust of crypto – where 99% of
the junk will be erased, never to return, while the FAANG of crypto
will emerge on the other end and thrive for the next couple decades
(.com boom of crypto),” @CredibleCrypto remarked. This analogy to
the dot-com bubble posits that much like the burst that cleared out
weaker internet stocks while establishing tech giants, the secular
crypto bear market could similarly purge lesser, speculative
projects and pave the way for stronger projects to dominate.
Related Reading: Crypto Market Stuck In A Rut? Here’s Why 2024
Bitcoin Breakout May Be Delayed Adding to the discourse,
@astronomer_zero, another crypto analyst, highlighted the typical
market psychology that precedes such downturns. He remarked, “Yeah,
the party is soon over. After we move into euphoria first once
more, because markets almost never crash on fear. And for a big
crash, big euphoria is required. ‘A bubble cannot pop if it doesn’t
exist’. Just so we can have a slightly bigger taste of
celebrity/main adoption bubble greed, pulling in more liquidity to
fuel the drop. Secular bear market starts in 2026/27.” Remarkably,
the S&P 500 is already moving towards a “blow off top”
scenario. As noted by another analyst, the S&P 500 is already
showing a steeper angle than in 2007 prior to the Great Financial
Crisis (GFC). Astronomer clarified: “That is true and this move is
part of the final stages. But that is SPX. I talked about how SPX
is not correlated to BTC and how BTC is evolving to an asset of
safety faster than the general public’s expectations.” Calls for a
US recession and a blow-off top for the global financial markets
are getting increasingly louder on X. One of the most vocal
proponents of this theory is Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at
Swissblock. He suggests that preemptive measures by the US Federal
Reserve, aimed at staving off a recession through substantial
liquidity injections, could drive major indices to new heights.
Related Reading: Crypto Guru Arthur Hayes Is ‘Short-Term Bearish’:
Here’s Why Specifically, Zeberg forecasted the S&P 500 reaching
between 6,100 and 6,300, the Nasdaq climbing to between 24,000 and
25,000, the Dow Jones to about 45,000, and Bitcoin peaking between
$115,000 and $120,000 before a recession sets in around December
2024. The concept of a secular bear market, while new to the crypto
market, has historical precedents in traditional financial markets.
Such periods are marked by a downward trend in asset prices over
extended periods, often spanning multiple economic cycles. Unlike
cyclical bear markets that are relatively short-lived and followed
by quick recoveries, secular bear markets exhibit prolonged
stagnation or decline, interrupted occasionally by partial
recoveries that do not revert to previous highs. The most-widely
known examples for secular bear markets are The Great Depression
(1929-1942) and the Dot-com Bubble Burst (2000-2013). Following the
burst of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the US stock markets,
particularly technology-heavy indices like the NASDAQ, experienced
a significant downturn. The NASDAQ did not regain its peak 2000
levels until 2015, marking a long period of recovery. At press
time, Bitcoin traded at $57,188. Featured image created with
DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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