SEATTLE, April 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Declines in
home values experienced during the recession have already been, or
are close to being, erased in almost 20 percent of metro housing
markets nationwide as values continue to rise, according to the
first quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports[i]. U.S. home
values climbed 5.7 percent year-over year in the first quarter, to
a Zillow Home Value Index[ii] of $169,800.
Home values nationwide rose 0.5% from the fourth quarter of
2013, the ninth straight quarter of increasing home values. U.S.
home values are expected to rise another 3.3 percent through the
first quarter of 2015, according to the Zillow Home Value
Forecast[iii].
Nationally, home values remain 13.5 percent below their 2007
peak, after falling 22.6 percent during the recession before
bottoming in 2011. But the housing recession is almost entirely in
the rearview mirror in 1,080 of the more than 8,700 cities and
towns covered by Zillow, with home values already at or expected to
reach pre-recession levels in the next year, including in many
hard-hit areas. Among 6,781 cities and towns that experienced home
value declines of 10 percent or more during the recession, values
in 527 have either fully recovered or are expected to recover fully
by the first quarter of 2015.
Among the more than 300 metros covered by Zillow, home values in
60 have already exceeded or are expected to exceed their
pre-recession peaks in the next year, including in Dallas, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, San
Antonio, San Jose and
Austin. In a majority of metros,
housing affordability is and will remain strong even as prices
continue to rise. But homes in a handful of metros – including
San Francisco, Los Angeles, San
Jose and San Diego – are
already unaffordable, with the share of residents' incomes
currently devoted to monthly mortgage payments exceeding historic
norms.
"The lows of the housing recession are becoming an increasingly
distant memory as home values reach new highs and homes become more
expensive than ever in many areas. This is a remarkable milestone
coming only two and a half years after the end of the worst housing
recession since the Great Depression, and is a testament to just
how robust this housing recovery has been," said Zillow Chief
Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "So
far, this steady appreciation has not created affordability issues
in the majority of places. But there are a handful of markets where
affordability is again a challenge, even with mortgage interest
rates incredibly low. Mortgage interest rates won't stay low
forever. And rents have also been marching steadily higher for
several years. As a result, the housing affordability issues we're
already seeing in select markets could become a much more
widespread concern a few years from now. As affordability worsens,
more residents will be forced to search for affordable housing
farther from urban job centers, and home values in some areas may
have to come down."
Nationally, rents rose 2.7 percent year-over-year in the first
quarter and 0.9 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2013, to
a Zillow Rent Index[iv] of $1,315.
U.S. rents have risen year-over-year for more than two years
straight.
The inventory of homes listed for sale on Zillow[v] at the end
of the first quarter fell by 0.5 percent year-over-year, after
showing annual gains in each of the past six months. Inventory fell
month-over-month in each of the three months of the first
quarter.
Metropolitan
Areas
|
Zillow Home Value
Index
|
Zillow Rent
Index
|
Zillow Home Value
Forecast
|
|
Q1
2014
|
Year-Year %
Change
|
Q1
2014
|
Year-Year %
Change
|
% Change in ZHVI,
Q1 2014-Q1 2015
|
At Peak/ Expected
to hit peak in next year?
|
|
|
|
United
States
|
$
169,800
|
5.7%
|
$
1,315
|
2.7%
|
3.3%
|
No
|
|
New York/Northern New
Jersey
|
$
371,200
|
6.4%
|
$
2,311
|
1.8%
|
2.8%
|
No
|
|
Los Angeles,
CA
|
$
508,400
|
15.2%
|
$
2,365
|
2.5%
|
6.0%
|
No
|
|
Chicago,
IL
|
$
178,800
|
8.3%
|
$
1,624
|
6.6%
|
1.5%
|
No
|
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
$
143,200
|
7.0%
|
$
1,387
|
3.9%
|
4.2%
|
Yes
|
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
$
192,700
|
2.0%
|
$
1,521
|
1.8%
|
1.2%
|
No
|
|
Houston,
TX
|
$
156,100
|
3.9%
|
$
1,419
|
4.4%
|
3.7%
|
Yes
|
|
Washington,
DC
|
$
345,900
|
7.7%
|
$
2,068
|
-0.6%
|
1.4%
|
No
|
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
|
$
189,100
|
16.9%
|
$
1,744
|
6.8%
|
5.8%
|
No
|
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
$
138,300
|
14.2%
|
$
1,190
|
3.5%
|
4.8%
|
No
|
|
Boston, MA
|
$
350,000
|
6.0%
|
$
2,071
|
4.5%
|
0.3%
|
No
|
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
$
655,400
|
16.6%
|
$
2,711
|
6.7%
|
5.3%
|
No
|
|
Detroit,
MI
|
$
107,300
|
16.5%
|
$
1,062
|
3.1%
|
3.6%
|
No
|
|
Riverside,
CA
|
$
262,300
|
23.3%
|
$
1,600
|
0.9%
|
12.0%
|
No
|
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
$
188,000
|
8.9%
|
$
1,174
|
1.1%
|
1.6%
|
No
|
|
Seattle,
WA
|
$
316,000
|
10.3%
|
$
1,750
|
7.0%
|
6.1%
|
No
|
|
Minneapolis-St Paul,
MN
|
$
197,300
|
6.4%
|
$
1,521
|
3.8%
|
0.3%
|
No
|
|
San Diego,
CA
|
$
447,900
|
13.8%
|
$
2,214
|
4.4%
|
3.9%
|
No
|
|
St. Louis,
MO
|
$
131,500
|
-2.2%
|
$
1,097
|
0.5%
|
2.2%
|
No
|
|
Tampa, FL
|
$
136,200
|
14.4%
|
$
1,231
|
2.8%
|
6.2%
|
No
|
|
Baltimore,
MD
|
$
235,400
|
3.9%
|
$
1,696
|
1.3%
|
1.0%
|
No
|
|
Denver, CO
|
$
245,200
|
7.0%
|
$
1,674
|
7.1%
|
1.7%
|
Yes
|
|
Pittsburgh,
PA
|
$
118,900
|
5.3%
|
$
1,074
|
8.7%
|
2.5%
|
Yes
|
|
Portland,
OR
|
$
263,200
|
10.4%
|
$
1,489
|
4.6%
|
4.2%
|
No
|
|
Sacramento,
CA
|
$
308,500
|
18.2%
|
$
1,572
|
2.9%
|
7.2%
|
No
|
|
San Antonio,
TX
|
$
153,700
|
4.6%
|
$
1,255
|
3.2%
|
3.9%
|
Yes
|
|
Orlando,
FL
|
$
156,800
|
17.3%
|
$
1,291
|
5.4%
|
8.2%
|
No
|
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
$
130,000
|
1.8%
|
$
1,179
|
9.6%
|
0.9%
|
No
|
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
$
115,800
|
1.4%
|
$
1,131
|
2.0%
|
1.2%
|
No
|
|
Kansas City,
MO
|
$
144,200
|
0.2%
|
$
1,133
|
2.8%
|
2.0%
|
No
|
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
$
170,900
|
22.4%
|
$
1,177
|
2.1%
|
6.0%
|
No
|
|
San Jose,
CA
|
$
759,100
|
13.4%
|
$
2,856
|
7.5%
|
5.0%
|
Yes
|
|
Columbus,
OH
|
$
137,300
|
6.8%
|
$
1,225
|
3.6%
|
1.5%
|
No
|
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
$
147,700
|
4.8%
|
$
1,170
|
0.6%
|
2.0%
|
No
|
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
$
135,300
|
6.5%
|
$
1,187
|
5.5%
|
2.3%
|
No
|
|
Austin, TX
|
$
221,300
|
8.2%
|
$
1,576
|
7.6%
|
3.6%
|
Yes
|
|
About Zillow:
Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) operates the
largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a
complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people
find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local
professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading
economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr.
Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data
analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more
than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also
sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which
asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and
investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow
Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the
bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures
consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and
over time. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio
includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgage
Marketplace, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Digs®, Postlets®, Diverse
Solutions®, Agentfolio®, Mortech®, HotPads™ and StreetEasy®. The
company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow.com, Zillow, Postlets, Mortech, Diverse Solutions,
StreetEasy, Agentfolio and Digs are registered trademarks
of Zillow, Inc. HotPads is a trademark of Zillow,
Inc.
[i] The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview
of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are
compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information,
visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate
Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of
data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating
back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in
each county and publicly available through a county recorder's
office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro,
city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at
www.zillow.com/local-info/ and www.zillow.com/research/data.
[ii] The Zillow Home Value Index is the median estimated home
value for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the
value of all single-family residences, condominiums and
cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given
period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.
[iii] The Zillow Home Value Forecast uses data from past home
value trends and current market conditions, including leading
indicators like home sales, months of housing inventory supply and
unemployment, to predict home values over the next 12 months for
the nation and for more than 250 markets across the country.
[iv] The Zillow Rent Index is the median Rent Zestimate®
(estimated monthly rental price) for a given geographic area on a
given day, and includes the value of all single-family residences,
condominiums, cooperatives and apartments in Zillow's database,
regardless of whether they are currently listed for rent. It is
expressed in dollars.
[v] Each week, a count of the number of single-family,
condominium and cooperative housing units listed for sale on Zillow
is taken. The median of these values within a month is calculated
as the monthly value. Because inventory can be seasonal, a
seasonally adjusted value is reported using a standard STL
procedure. This seasonally adjusted series is then smoothed using a
three-month rolling average. More information is available at
www.zillow.com/research.
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.