Notes (forming part of the condensed consolidated interim financial statements)
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Accounting policies (continued) |
Going concern
The condensed consolidated interim financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis, which the Directors consider appropriate for the reasons
set out below.
The Directors have assessed the financial position of the Group as at 30 September 2023, and the projected cash flows of the Group
for at least twelve-month period from the date of authorisation of the condensed consolidated interim financial statements (the going concern assessment period).
The Group had available liquidity of £5.8 billion at 30 September 2023, £4.3 billion of which is cash with the remainder the
undrawn RCF facility. Within the going concern assessment period there is a £1 billion minimum quarter-end liquidity covenant attached to the Groups UKEF loans and forward start RCF facility.
There is £1.7 billion of maturing debt in the going concern assessment period, comprising UKEF and CNY loan repayments, EUR bond repayments and early repayment of EUR and USD bonds in October 2023 (see note 30). No new funding is assumed.
The Group has assessed its projected cash flows over the going concern assessment period. This base case uses the most recent Board-approved forecasts
that include the going concern assessment period; taking into account the Groups expectations of improved semiconductor supply, optimisation of production to prioritise the highest margin products along with the expectations relating to
prevailing economic conditions, including the impact of inflationary pressures on material costs and environmental, social and governance (ESG) commitments.
The base case assumes a steady improvement in wholesale volumes, with associated increases in EBIT, in the going concern assessment period compared to the
previous 12 months as semiconductor supply related production constraints progressively ease, supported by new partnership agreements with key semiconductor suppliers.
The Group has carried out a reverse stress test against the base case to determine the decline in wholesale volumes over a twelve-month period that would
result in a liquidity level that breaches the £1 billion liquidity financing covenant. The reverse stress test assumes continued supply constraints over the 12-month period and optimisation of
production to maximise production of higher margin products.
In order to reach a liquidity level that breaches covenants, it would require a sustained
decline in wholesale volumes of more than 65% compared to the base case over a 12-month period. The reverse stress test reflects the variable profit impact of the wholesale volume decline, and assumes all
other assumptions are held in line with the base case. It does not reflect other potential upside measures that could be taken in such a reduced volume scenario; nor any new funding.
The Group does not consider this scenario to be plausible given that the stress test volumes are significantly lower than the volumes achieved during both the
peak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the worst quarter of semiconductor shortages. The Group has a strong order bank and is confident that it can significantly exceed reverse stress test volumes.
The Group has considered the impact of severe but plausible downside scenarios, including scenarios that reflect a decrease in variable profit per unit
compared with the base case to include additional increases in material and other related production costs. The expected wholesale volumes under all of these scenarios is higher than under the reverse stress test.
The Directors, after making appropriate enquiries and taking into consideration the risks and uncertainties facing the Group, consider that the Group has
adequate financial resources to continue operating throughout the going concern assessment period, meeting its liabilities as they fall due. Accordingly, the Directors continue to adopt the going concern basis in preparing these condensed
consolidated interim financial statements.
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