Bloomberg Opinion: Suez Ship Grounding Makes Case for Big Rail Merger
By Brooke Sutherland
26 March 2021
A blockbuster tie-up between Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern is a bet that supply-chain breakdowns like
the Suez Canal blockage will keep happening.
Its no coincidence that the two biggest industrial news events of the week involved a blockbuster
North American railroad merger and a 200,000-ton container ship that got wedged into the Suez Canal, halting an estimated $9.6 billion worth of global trade on every day that its stuck. The former
is a bet that events like the latter will keep snarling globalized supply chains and boost the appeal of more localized freight routes.
Canadian Pacific
Railway Ltd. agreed on Sunday to buy Kansas City Southern for $29 billion including debt to create the first major rail network that runs the gamut of North America. The combined tracks form a T that stretches from Kansas City
Southerns legacy routes deep into Mexico across the U.S. Midwest and up along the Canadian border, creating the opportunity to ferry grain, chemicals, energy products, cars and consumer goods seamlessly between the three countries. If the deal
is approved by regulators, the more efficient railroad would be in a stronger position to take market share from the trucking industry. It could also change the freight calculus for companies contemplating moving parts of their supply chains into
North America.
The pandemic has taught us that global extended supply chains involve greater risk than perhaps a lot of industrial companies are
willing to tolerate and I do believe that there is a trend in supply-chain strategy to shrink and de-risk those supply chains, Kansas City Southern Chief Executive Officer Patrick Ottensmeyer said on a
call to discuss the deal. This network is not only going to be in a position to benefit from those trends, but actually help drive those trends.
He made that comment on Sunday, several days before strong winds battered the Ever Given container ship and caused the vessel to run aground in the Suez
Canal. Caterpillar Inc. is among the companies facing shipping delays because of the blockage. The heavy-machinery maker is anticipating a lag of a week or more in shipments from Asia to its facilities in Europe and may even airlift products if the
logjam gets bad enough, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News. But even before the Suez Canal situation, freight costs were soaring as a stronger-than-expected recovery for everything from home goods to automobiles and now industrial
parts disrupted the normal flow of ships between the U.S. and China and created a shortage in available container space in the places where its needed.
This time last year, the problem wasnt a lack of ships to carry goods; it was the pandemics regional rolling lockdowns, which resulted in
shuttered factories and made the practice of zig-zagging components across borders untenable. Before that, the underlying infrastructure of the globalized supply chain was working just fine but the Trump
administration had made the strategy more expensive through tariffs.
This pileup of supply-chain pileups has sparked plenty of panicked alarm some
of it justified, some of it not. Many of these disruptions are short-term in nature. The canal will get unblocked, eventually. The wild, unpredictable swings in demand wrought by the pandemic will settle as the crisis subsides, with freight and
factory capacity catching up to orders and balancing out over time, likely by the second half of this year. Its very possible, lets put it that way, that you will see bottlenecks emerge and then clear over time, Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference earlier this month. These are not permanent. Its not like the supply side will be unable to adapt to these things. But its hard to think of a moment in modern memory
when the process of getting parts and goods across oceans and borders has been so fraught with pitfalls. That has consequences.
Part of the problem
is the same strategies that allow companies to cut costs will increase their risk, David Simchi-Levi, a professor of engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who focuses on supply-chain management, said in an interview last
month. Its not about switching from what they did to something different. Its about finding the right balance between efficiency and resilience. Mexico is in