Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE: SGL) is a
non-diversified, closed-end management investment company seeking a
high level of current income as a primary objective and capital
appreciation as a secondary objective through investments in US and
foreign debt securities.
Fund Commentary for the first quarter of 2015 from UBS Global
Asset Management (Americas) Inc. (“UBS Global AM”), the Fund’s
investment advisor
Market review
The global fixed income market generated mixed results during
the first quarter, partially due to the impact of the strengthening
US dollar. The overall US fixed income market moved higher as
Treasury yields declined across the yield curve. All told, the
yield on the two-year Treasury fell from 0.67% to 0.56%, whereas
the yield on the 10-year Treasury moved from 2.17% to 1.94% during
the first quarter. As expected, at its meeting in March, the
Federal Reserve Board (the "Fed") removed the word "patient" from
its official statement regarding when it may start raising rates.
However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen pointed out that, "Just because we
removed the word “patient” from the statement doesn’t mean we are
going to be impatient." Overseas, government yields generally moved
lower. On January 22, the European Central Bank ("ECB") announced
that, beginning in March 2015, it would begin a €60
billion-per-month bond buying program that is expected to run until
September 2016. The overall US bond market, as measured by the
Barclays US Aggregate Index, gained 1.61% during the first quarter
of 2015.1 Conversely, the global government bond markets declined
2.51% over the quarter, as measured by the Citigroup World
Government Bond Index (unhedged). In contrast, the Citigroup World
Government Bond Index (hedged) rose 2.04% for the quarter.2
Sector overview
Most US spread sectors posted positive total returns during the
quarter, as they were supported by overall solid demand and
declining Treasury yields.3 Investment grade and high yield
corporate debt outperformed Treasuries during the first quarter, as
investor demand for yield remained and some of the weakness from
the fourth quarter related to falling oil prices had reversed.
Commercial mortgage backed securities ("CMBS") continued to deliver
strong results relative to other securitized debt sectors.
After performing poorly at the end of 2014, emerging markets
debt generated a positive return during the first three months of
the year. The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global ("EMBI
Global") Index rose 2.06% during the quarter.4 However, given the
strong US dollar, local currency emerging markets debt, as measured
by the J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Global
Diversified ("GBI-EM Global Diversified"), posted a -3.96% return
during the same time period.5
Performance review
During the first quarter of 2015, the Fund posted a net asset
value total return of -0.26% and a market price total return of
0.87%. On a net asset value total return basis, the Fund
outperformed its benchmark, the Strategic Global Benchmark (the
“Index”), which returned -1.02% over the quarter.6
The Fund's security selection in a number of sectors was
beneficial for performance. In particular, our investment grade and
high yield corporate bond holdings were positive for returns. We
believe industry and issuer selection will be the dominant drivers
of relative performance in 2015, as we believe US economic activity
is likely to recover in the second half of 2015 and mergers and
acquisitions activity is likely to remain robust throughout 2015.
Within investment grade corporate debt, we continue to favor
financials versus non-financials based on continued positive
momentum in fundamentals, positive capital growth and asset quality
improvement.
Security selection of mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") was
also additive for performance, but as noted below exposure to this
sector was not rewarded overall. Elsewhere, the Fund's developed
market currency exposure was beneficial. In particular, a long
position in the US dollar, along with a short to the euro and
several other developed market currencies was positive for
results.
Among detractors from the Fund's performance were its duration
and yield curve positioning. Duration positioning that was shorter
than that of the Index was not rewarded given the declining
interest rate environment. From a yield curve perspective, our
underweight in the long end of the curve and overweight in the
intermediate segment detracted from results. An overweight to
non-corporate credit, including foreign sovereigns, agencies and
supranationals, was negative for performance. An allocation to MBS
and the Fund's overweight to US non-Treasury debt obligations also
detracted from results.
A more limited allocation to the emerging markets debt asset
class versus the Index detracted from performance. We are currently
underweight the sector, given moderate deterioration in
fundamentals and volatility in a handful of headline countries
weighing heavily on the asset class more broadly.
Outlook
Economic data in the US has recently pointed to a slowdown in
economic activity, including disappointing retail sales and
manufacturing numbers. We believe that moderating growth was
partially due to severe winter weather in parts of the country. In
our view, the US economy should gain some momentum as the year
progresses. That said, we do not expect to see robust growth given
continued slack in areas of the economy, generally weak growth
overseas and the impact from the stronger US dollar. We believe the
Fed will likely start raising rates later in 2015, but that its
approach to policy normalization should be very gradual.
Turning to the fixed income market, the potential for higher
interest rates is a headwind for bond prices. However, we do not
expect to see a sharp rise in rates given the global economic
environment and the cautious Fed. We believe credit fundamentals
are generally sound, with large cash balances on many corporate
balance sheets and low default rates. We are keeping a close eye on
market technicals, as investor demand could be challenged at times
given numerous geopolitical issues and if the Fed takes a more
aggressive stance in terms of interest rate hikes.
While we remain cautious on the short-term outlook for the
emerging markets debt asset class, our outlook has improved
somewhat since the end of 2014. We anticipate modestly
strengthening growth in the US, which would be supportive of
emerging markets exporters. Growth in Europe continues to be weak,
but we are seeing some signs of progress following the commencement
of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing program.
However, we recognize that some emerging markets countries still
show a lower level of economic activity and further downward
revisions to growth cannot be ruled out. Finally, inflation is
relatively benign overall and, as such, we do not expect to see
policy tightening from emerging markets central banks in the near
term.
Portfolio statistics as of March 31, 20157
Top ten countries (bond holdings only)8
Percentage of net assets United States
42.0% United Kingdom 6.0 Brazil
5.4 New Zealand 3.2 Canada 3.0 Germany
2.4 Russia 2.3 Mexico 2.0
France 1.9 Italy 1.9
Total
70.1 Top ten currency
breakdown (includes all securities and other
instruments)(9) Percentage of net assets
United States Dollar
77.3%
Euro 8.5 New Zealand Dollar 3.4
Australian Dollar 3.1 British Pound 2.9
Brazilian Real 1.7 Mexican Peso 0.6
Canadian Dollar 0.4 Russian Ruble 0.4
Chinese Yuan 0.3
Credit quality10
Percentage of net assets AAA
3.8%
US Treasury11 5.1 US Agency11,12 2.2 AA
7.7 A 8.9 BBB 24.7 BB
15.5 B 9.5 CCC and Below
1.7 Non-rated 19.3 Cash and other assets, less
liabilities 1.6
Total
100.0
Characteristics
Net asset value per share13
$9.85 Market price per share13 $8.43 Duration14
4.7 yrs Weighted average maturity 7.8
yrs
1 The Barclays US Aggregate Index is an unmanaged broad-based
index designed to measure the US dollar-denominated, investment
grade, taxable bond market. The index includes bonds from the
Treasury, government-related, corporate, mortgage-backed,
asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed sectors. Investors
should note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees or
expenses.
2 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI) is an
unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index composed of straight
(i.e., not floating rate or index-linked) government bonds with a
one-year minimum maturity. The index is designed to track the
government bond markets in developed countries. The "hedged"
version of this index is adjusted so that foreign currency
fluctuations are neutralized, whereas the "unhedged" version
exhibits performance reflective also of currency value
fluctuations. Investors should note that indices do not reflect the
deduction of fees or expenses.
3 A spread sector refers to non-government fixed income sectors,
such as investment grade or high yield bonds, commercial
mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), etc.
4 The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI
Global) is an unmanaged index which is designed to track total
returns for US dollar-denominated debt instruments issued by
emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities: Brady
bonds, loans and Eurobonds. Investors should note that indices do
not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses.
5 The J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Global
Diversified (GBI–EM) is an unmanaged index which is designed to
track the total returns for local currency debt instruments issued
by emerging market governments.
6 The Strategic Global Benchmark is an unmanaged index compiled
by the advisor, constructed as follows: 67% Citigroup World
Government Bond Index (WGBI) and 33% JP Morgan Emerging Markets
Bond Index Global (EMBI Global). Investors should note that indices
do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses.
7 The Fund’s portfolio is actively managed, and its portfolio
composition will vary over time.
8 Excludes exposures obtained via derivatives (e.g., swaps).
9 Forward foreign currency contracts are reflected at unrealized
appreciation/depreciation; this may not align with the risk
exposure described in the portfolio commentary section which
reflects forward foreign currency contracts based on contract
notional amount. As of the most recent period end, March 31, 2015,
the Fund maintained a risk exposure to non-US dollar currencies
equal to approximately 30% of the Fund.
10 Credit quality ratings shown in the table are based on those
assigned by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a part of
McGraw-Hill Financial (“S&P”), to individual portfolio
holdings. S&P is an independent ratings agency. Rating
reflected represents S&P individual debt issue credit rating.
While S&P may provide a credit rating for a bond issuer (e.g.,
a specific company or country), certain issues, such as some
sovereign debt, may not be covered or rated and, therefore, are
reflected as non-rated for the purposes of this table. Credit
ratings range from AAA, being the highest, to D, being the lowest,
based on S&P’s measures; ratings of BBB or higher are
considered to be investment grade quality. Unrated securities do
not necessarily indicate low quality. Further information regarding
S&P’s rating methodology may be found on its website at
www.standardandpoors.com. Please note that any references to credit
quality made in the commentary preceding the table may reflect
ratings based on multiple providers (not just S&P) and thus may
not align with the data represented in this table.
11 S&P downgraded long-term US government debt on August 5,
2011 to AA+. Other rating agencies continue to rate long-term US
government debt in their highest ratings categories. The Fund’s
aggregate exposure to AA-rated debt as of December 31, 2014 would
include the percentages indicated above for AA, US Treasury and US
Agency debt but has been broken out into three separate categories
to facilitate understanding.
12 Includes agency debentures and agency mortgage-backed
securities.
13 Net asset value (NAV) and market price will fluctuate.
14 Duration is a measure of price sensitivity of a fixed income
investment or portfolio (expressed as % change in price) to a 1
percentage point (i.e., 100 basis points) change in interest rates,
accounting for optionality in bonds such as prepayment risk and
call/put features.
Any performance information reflects the deduction of the Fund’s
fees and expenses, as indicated in its shareholder reports, such as
investment advisory and administration fees, custody fees, exchange
listing fees, etc. It does not reflect any transaction charges that
a shareholder may incur when (s)he buys or sells shares (e.g., a
shareholder’s brokerage commissions).
Disclaimers Regarding Fund Commentary - The Fund
Commentary is intended to assist shareholders in understanding how
the Fund performed during the period noted. Views and opinions were
current as of the date of this press release. They are not
guarantees of performance or investment results and should not be
taken as investment advice. Investment decisions reflect a variety
of factors, and the Fund and UBS Global AM reserve the right to
change views about individual securities, sectors and markets at
any time. As a result, the views expressed should not be relied
upon as a forecast of the Fund’s future investment intent.
Past performance does not predict future performance. The return
and value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's
shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original
cost. Any Fund net asset value ("NAV") returns cited in a Fund
Commentary assume, for illustration only, that dividends and other
distributions, if any, were reinvested at the NAV on the payable
dates. Any Fund market price returns cited in a Fund Commentary
assume that all dividends and other distributions, if any, were
reinvested at prices obtained under the Fund's Dividend
Reinvestment Plan. Returns for periods of less than one year have
not been annualized. Returns do not reflect the deduction of taxes
that a shareholder would pay on Fund dividends and other
distributions, if any, or on the sale of Fund shares.
Investing in the Fund entails specific risks, such as
interest rate, credit and the risks associated with investing in
the securities of non-US issuers, including those located in
emerging market countries. The value of the Fund's
investments in foreign securities may fall due to adverse
political, social and economic developments abroad and due to
decreases in foreign currency values relative to the US
dollar. Further detailed information regarding the Fund,
including a discussion of principal objectives, principal
investment strategies and principal risks, may be found in the fund
overview located at
http://www.ubs.com/closedendfundsinfo. You may also
request copies of the fund overview by calling the Closed-End Funds
Desk at 888-793 8637.
©UBS 2015. All rights reserved.The key symbol and UBS are among
the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS.
UBS Global Asset ManagementClosed-End Funds Desk: 888-793
8637ubs.com
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