BOSTON, April 23, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Electric haul
trucks will be key to achieving meaningful emissions reduction in
the mining industry and assisting mining companies to meet their
sustainability objectives. Haul trucks make up almost a quarter of
the global mining vehicle population but are by far the largest and
most emitting vehicles, contributing to over 90% of vehicular
emissions in mining or over 174 megatonnes of CO2
annually. Electrification of these vehicles is steadily progressing
at a rate that is drawing the attention of key players across the
industry, including mining companies, OEMs, and battery suppliers.
IDTechEx's new report, "Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044:
Technologies, Players, and Forecasts", explores the facets
drawing key stakeholders into the space, why electric haul trucks
are expected to be a success, and what is still needed as part of
the electric transition.
Compared to other mining vehicles, and especially to on-highway
vehicle segments, haul truck electrification is still in its
nascent stages. Only one or two electric haul trucks have been made
per year, and only in 2023 did the total number of these vehicles
tip into the double digits. The majority of these have been
prototypes and testing models developed by the mining companies
themselves and independent retrofitters instead of OEMs. They
repurpose existing diesel machines to install batteries or fuel
cells for zero-emission operation. First Mode and WAE have been the
two most active players in this area and are expanding their
retrofitting capacities in the near term.
More recently, major mining OEMs have moved into the electric
haul truck space, seeking to develop and commercialize electric
models of their existing vehicles in-house. This includes the two
largest mining OEMs globally, Caterpillar and Komatsu. Caterpillar
has built the 793 Electric prototype, currently in testing and with
aims for commercialization by 2027. Komatsu is at a similar stage
of development with its 830E electric, aiming for production
pre-2030.
What can electric haul trucks offer?
The ramp-up in interest from OEMs in electric haul trucks can be
attributed to the rising demand from mining companies. Many of the
world's largest miners have signed agreements with retrofitters and
now OEMs for the supply of EV haul trucks when the technology is
commercially available. These companies are increasingly realizing
that not only are electric haul trucks greener and provide safer
working conditions, but they can also generate huge savings in
total cost of ownership.
The biggest chunk of the total cost of ownership savings comes
from replacing diesel with much cheaper electricity. Haul trucks
have the most intensive duty cycles of any vehicle in a mine,
working 20-hour days on average and consuming massive amounts of
diesel in the process. Any cost reductions will, therefore,
compound greatly through the truck's 10-year lifetime. A single
150-tonne haul truck can save over US$5.5
million in energy costs alone. This is widely applicable
across all vehicle weights, with heavier trucks providing even
greater upside, highlighting the potential savings that can be
generated when an entire fleet of haul trucks is electrified.
Regardless of the costs that can be saved, electric haul trucks
will come at a premium. Haul truck batteries are large and
expensive and will need multiple replacements within a 10-year
window. The question remains: will energy savings be sufficient to
overturn the premiums paid for batteries?
The large batteries needed for electric haul trucks have perhaps
been the largest technological and financial bottlenecks inhibiting
their adoption, but they are now sufficiently developed and
competitively priced for wider use. These batteries regularly
exceed 1 MWh, with the largest ones approaching 2 MWh. IDTechEx has
collated a database of all existing EV haul truck models, showing
that current vehicle runtimes remain under 6 hours on a single
charge. For a 150-tonne haul truck to operate for this duration, it
will require a battery pack of over 1700 kWh and cost over
US$500 thousand.
Energy savings will comfortably exceed the added cost of a
single battery. However, IDTechEx expects electric haul trucks will
need an additional five battery replacements per vehicle on
average, costing an extra US$2.6
million.
More cost factors also play into the total cost of ownership of
electric haul trucks. On average, a 150-tonne truck will be able to
save around US$340 thousand in
maintenance costs in its lifetime. However, an electric driveline
is needed for US$70 thousand, plus
the labor of retrofitting which IDTechEx estimates at US$360 thousand. While these are relevant and
substantial costs, they pale in comparison to the amounts spent on
diesel or batteries and are not the key determinants in haul truck
economics.
Altogether, despite multiple expensive battery replacements,
total ownership costs are strongly in favor of electrification.
Mining companies will be able to save nearly US$2.5 million per haul truck electrified, and
trucks will break even on their added CAPEX in under 3 years. Given
that the volumes of electric haul trucks are still so small, there
is plenty of room for the cost of batteries to fall below the
US$300/kWh estimate by IDTechEx.
Simultaneously, the frequency of battery replacements will decrease
as cycle life improves. As these happen, the financial advantages
of electric haul trucks over diesel ones will become even more
significant.
What do EVs still need?
If electric haul trucks are so financially attractive, why are
they not yet widespread? First and most importantly, batteries
require size and endurance that are in line with the demands of
haul truck duty cycles while still maintaining relative
affordability. This aspect has only recently been achievable from
battery suppliers such as CATL, ABB, and Northvolt, and the
industry is now expanding in response. Development of haul truck
batteries is in its infancy – a wide range of designs and
chemistries are currently being employed to meet performance
demands, and there is yet to be an industry-wide consensus.
Productivity is another sticking point in the adoption of
electric haul trucks. Currently, it is impossible for an electric
truck to match the uptime of diesel. Where a diesel truck only
needs 10 minutes a day to refuel, EVs need to be charged multiple
times a day for two to three hours in total. Mining companies will
not be willing to adopt a technology if it means sacrificing the
productivity and output of their operations.
Electric haul trucks can be over 10% more efficient than diesel
trucks (through a combination of higher speeds and less maintenance
time), which goes some way to minimizing the impact of
electrification on productivity. Still, OEMs are looking to
eliminate any impact entirely by extending battery runtimes as much
as possible and by bringing in faster charging methods.
Charging is an obstacle for electric haul trucks in its own
right. To maintain the productivity that mining companies demand,
haul trucks need to be charged at rates of 1 to 3C. High charging
rates can compromise the cycle life of batteries, which would
necessitate more frequent battery replacements. It remains to be
seen if a wide array of battery technologies from various suppliers
will be able to be consistently charged at such high rates.
This will also come with an incredibly high energy requirement.
To charge a 1700 kWh battery at 3C will require a 5 MW+ connection,
equal to the output of two off-shore wind turbines! Charging at
such rates would demand dedicated power plants and considerable
upgrades to local power infrastructure at great expense to mines.
Given that premiums for electric haul trucks are still high, mines
might not be willing or able to afford the layout for vehicles and
infrastructure together. However, IDTechEx expects that through the
financial appeal of EV haul trucks and the wider electrification of
mining vehicles and operations, that mines will increasingly
implement this infrastructure.
OEMs are committing to electric haul trucks in their long-term
strategic visions and mining companies have shown willingness to
adopt them at the soonest opportunity. The total cost of ownership
benefits that they provide are too significant to ignore, and the
continued development of batteries and chargers will negate many of
the questions currently asked of these vehicles. Electric haul
trucks are cheaper to operate, more productive, and far more
environmentally friendly, making them the clear winner for the
future of the mining industry.
The IDTechEx report, "Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044:
Technologies, Players, and Forecasts", provides deeper analyses
and quantification of these key cost factors in electrification, as
well as integral players across the electric haul truck supply
chain. It finds that electric haul trucks are on the cusp of
significant growth, predicted to be a US$15
billion industry by 2044.
To find out more about this IDTechEx report, including
downloadable sample pages, please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/EVMining.
For the full portfolio of electric vehicle market research from
IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV.
About IDTechEx:
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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