VANCOUVER, BC, July 19,
2024 /CNW/ - The Madison's Lumber Prices
Index for the week ending July 12,
2024 was US$369 mfbm. This is
down -3%, or -$11, from the previous
week when it was US$380.
Madison's Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good
forecast indicator of US home builder's current lumber buying
activity.
Click for information regarding the construction of the
Madison's Lumber Prices Index:
https://madisonsreport.com/madisons-lumber-prices-index-a-powerful-tool-for-data-driven-decision-making/
A dramatic drop in multi-family starts the previous month
brought total housing starts for the US in May down significantly.
The latest data release, for June, shows a bounce back in
multi-family starts, which was enough to drive total housing starts
back up.
Total US housing starts in June were 1.36 million units, up +3%
from the upwardly-revised 1.42 million units in May, and down more
than -4% from June 2023 when it was
1.42 million units.
A forward-looking measure of housing construction, building
permits rose +3% month over month to 1.45 million units, from 1.314
million in May, and fell -3% compared to June 2023 when it was 1.50 million. The
number of houses approved for construction that were yet to be
started increased +1.8% to 277,000 units. The single-family
homebuilding backlog rose +0.7% to 140,00 units.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of
homebuilding, in June fell more than -2% compared to May, at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 980,000 units, from 1.0 million
units, however rose +5.4% compared to June 2023 when it was
930,000 units.
Single-family permits dropped more than -2% from May's 956,000
units, to a rate of 934,000 units.
Shrewd investors know that construction framing
softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing
activity, including home building and home sales. Don't
miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop
every Friday morning.
Said Lisa Sturtevant, chief
economist at Bright MLS, "A slowdown in apartment construction
is not surprising. In 2023, there were record numbers of apartments
delivered in some markets across the US, leading developers to pull
back on bringing new units to the market. Last year, rents in some
markets fell and property managers were offering rent and other
concessions to attract renters."
First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi noted a "bright spot" in the June
report – namely, the fact that the sales expectations sub-index
ticked upwards, indicating that homebuilder sentiment is likely to
improve if mortgage rates fall by the end of the year. "This could
signal that the bottom for single-family starts is near," detailed
Kushi.
Madison's Benchmark 2x4 Dimension Lumber Prices:
Current Compared to Recent and
|
Historical
Highs & Lows
|
|
2015
to
|
2024
|
|
|
madisonsreport.com
|
R/L in US$ per thousand
board feet
|
Current:
|
|
Recent
High:
May 2021
|
%
Change
|
|
Previous
High:
June 2018
|
% Change:
Current vs.
Previous High
|
|
Previous
Low:
Sept 2015
|
%
Change
|
(net FOB
sawmill)
|
2024-07-12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SYP East Side KD
#2&Btr
|
$
340
|
|
$
1,364
|
-75 %
|
|
$
460
|
-26 %
|
|
$ 311
|
9 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WSPF KD
#2&Btr
|
$
332
|
|
$
1,617
|
-79 %
|
|
$
443
|
-25 %
|
|
$ 249
|
33 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ESPF KD
#2&Btr
|
$
440
|
|
$
1,687
|
-74 %
|
|
$
529
|
-17 %
|
|
$ 350
|
26 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Douglas fir
Green
|
$
385
|
|
$
1,344
|
-71 %
|
|
$
500
|
-23 %
|
|
$ 302
|
27 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WSPF 2x4 STUDS
(PET)
|
$
306
|
|
$
1,489
|
-79 %
|
|
$
445
|
-31 %
|
|
$ 230
|
33 %
|
It is important to note that year-to-date new housing
construction is actually up this year compared to
2023. For the first six months of 2024 single-family
starts are up +16%, to 521,800 units (not seasonally-adjusted),
from 449,400 units in the same time last year. Likewise,
single-family permits for January – June this year are up +13%, to
511,500 units, compared to 453,800 units for the same time in
2023.
Looking at lumber prices, in the week ending July 12, 2024 the price of benchmark softwood
lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was
US$332 mfbm. That week's price is
down -$14, or -4%, from one month ago
when it was $346, according to the
latest data from Madison's Lumber Reporter.
That week's price is down -$14, or
-4%, from one month ago when it was $346.
STAY AHEAD of US housing price data by getting
access to softwood lumber prices. Released every Friday for that
week, since 1952 Madison's Lumber Prices is used by the forest
products industry as a price guide for North American construction
framing dimension softwood lumber. These are, of course, the inputs
into US and Canadian home building materials.
Madison's Lumber Reporter Weekly Summary: July 12, 2024
Framing Lumber:
The post-holiday litmus test of
improving demand was a resounding dud. Prices of dimension and
studs continued to sputter while that of panels showed further
weakness.
KEY LUMBER PRICES AND MARKET CONDITIONS TAKE-AWAYS:
- Commodity prices remained conspicuously cheap across all
products.
- Wide dimension was the only remotely profitable group.
- Buyers had a prevailing and reinforced expectation of quick
truck shipments at a discount.
- Sawmill asking prices a mixed bag.
- Downside momentum abating due to persistently low numbers,
general fatigue, and less Euro wood coming into Eastern ports.
- Too many suppliers competing for limited business.
- Discounted plywood and OSB material flowed into US
markets.
* Madison's Lumber Prices, weekly, are a good
forecast indicator of US home builder's current lumber buying
activity ——> DETAILS
The completions rate for that single-family housing increased
almost +2% from May to 1.04 million units in June. Overall housing
completions jumped +10% to a rate of 1.71 million units, the
highest level since January 2007. The
number of housing units under construction fell -1.5% to a rate of
1.56 million units, the lowest level since January 2022. The inventory of single-family
housing under construction dropped -1.3% to a rate of 668,000
units.
As for those lumber prices, compared to the same week last year,
when it was US$458 mfbm, the price of
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending
July 12, 2024 was down -$90, or -21%. Compared to two years ago when it
was $630, that week's price is down
-$284, or -45%.
To subscribe to Madison's Lumber Reporter, simply fill
out an order form
here: https://madisonsreport.com/subscribe/
Established in 1952, Madison's Lumber Prices is
your premiere source for North American softwood lumber news,
prices, industry insight, and industry contacts. The weekly
Madison's Lumber Reporter publishes current Canadian
and US construction framing dimension lumber and panel wholesaler
pricing information 50 weeks a year and access to historical
pricing as well.
Madison's offers a variety of products to
meet your information needs regarding the North American forest
products industry including:
Madison's Lumber Prices:
https://madisonsreport.com/products/lumber-price-dashboard/
Madison's Heating Wood Pellet Prices:
https://madisonsreport.com/products/pellets/
Madison's British Columbia Coast Log Prices:
https://madisonsreport.com/products/bc-coastal-logs/
Madison's Forest
Pulse:
https://madisonsreport.com/products/forest-pulse/
Madison's North America Sawmill Listings:
https://madisonsreport.com/products/sawmill-directory/
Madison's Sawmill Curtailment Lookout:
https://madisonsreport.com/products/sawmill-lookout/
SOURCE Madison's Lumber Reporter