SEATTLE, May 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- A presidential
win for presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Sen.
Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) would
negatively impact the housing market and overall economic outlook
for the United States, according
to experts surveyed in the latest Zillow® Home Price Expectations
(ZHPE) Survey.
Overall, the economists surveyed predicted home price
appreciation would be up 4 percent year-over-year at the end of
2016, higher than predictions of 3.7 percent indicated in the
previous survey. However, if Sanders or Trump is elected, the
economists would lower their expectations both for home values and
the overall performance of the U.S. economy.
The quarterly ZHPE survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by
Pulsenomics LLC[i], asked more than 100 housing experts about their
expectations for the housing market. With the upcoming presidential
election, the respondents were also asked about the anticipated
impact of several presidential candidates on U.S. housing and the
economy. Specifically, they were asked about five candidates: Sec.
Hillary Clinton, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Republican Ohio Gov. John
Kasich, Sanders, and Trump[ii].
Respondents viewed Kasich's centrist views most favorably, and
least liked Sanders' democratic socialism and Trump's
unpredictability. Clinton also received mostly positive ratings
from the panelists who responded to this question. Panelists said
they would lower their expectations for the housing market and
overall economy if Cruz were elected.
"As the presidential election nears, candidates' individual
plans for the economy are increasingly under scrutiny," said Zillow
Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell.
"Many of the candidates' proposals sounds appealing to voters, but
a closer look through the panelists' economic lens reveals the
potential impact of those proposed policies on our economy. The
results from this survey show us that, from these economists'
standpoint, the more centrist candidates from either party would be
best for the economy and housing market. Respondents saw the more
polarizing political leanings of Donald
Trump and Sen. Sanders as having a negative effect."
Half of the respondents credit the recent acceleration in home
value growth primarily to low inventory, rather than factors like
low mortgage interest rates or wage and job growth. Nearly two
thirds of the researchers disagreed that recent monetary policy
decisions to keep interest rates low are causing an unsustainable
increase in home values.
"Longer-term expectations for U.S. home values continue to trend
slowly downward, and are at the lowest levels they've been since
the market recovery began four years ago," said Pulsenomics founder
Terry Loebs. "After adjusting for
expected inflation, the expert panel's forecast for national home
value appreciation averages 1.7 percent annually through 2020."
Although this would mark a significant pull-back from the 3.6
percent inflation-adjusted average annual rate experienced since
the start of the recovery in 2012, Loebs said that housing market
stakeholders should keep the fading optimism in perspective.
"During most of the decade that preceded the onset of the real
estate bubble more than fifteen years ago–a relatively normal
period for the U.S. housing market–nominal home values didn't even
keep up with inflation."
Candidate
|
Expected Impact on
Home Value Forecast
|
Expected Impact on
Housing Finance Reform
|
Expected Impact on
Overall Economic Outlook
|
Hillary
Clinton
|
Positive
|
Positive
|
Neutral
|
Ted Cruz
|
Negative
|
Negative
|
Negative
|
John
Kasich
|
Positive
|
Positive
|
Positive
|
Bernie
Sanders
|
Negative
|
Negative
|
Negative
|
Donald
Trump
|
Negative
|
Negative
|
Negative
|
Zillow
Zillow® is the leading real estate and rental marketplace
dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and
knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with
the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow
operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by
Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja
Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data
analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more
than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also
sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which
asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and
investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow
Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the
bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures
consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and
over time. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow
Group (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.
About Pulsenomics:
Pulsenomics LLC
(www.pulsenomics.com) is an independent research and consulting
firm that specializes in data analytics, new product and index
development for institutional clients in the financial and real
estate arenas. Pulsenomics also designs and manages expert surveys
and consumer polls to identify trends and expectations that are
relevant to effective business management and monitoring economic
health. Pulsenomics LLC is the author of The Home Price
Expectations Survey™, The U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, and The
U.S. Housing Confidence Index. Pulsenomics®, The Housing
Confidence Index™, and The Housing Confidence Survey™ are
trademarks of Pulsenomics LLC.
[i] This edition of the Zillow® Home Price Expectations Survey
surveyed 107 experts between April 25 and
May 5, 2016. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on
behalf of Zillow, Inc.
[ii] The Cruz and Kasich campaigns were suspended on
May 3rd and May 4th, respectively, shortly before the end of
the survey field period.
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visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/survey-economists-expect-smooth-sailing-for-the-housing-market---unless-trump-or-sanders-wins-300270670.html
SOURCE Zillow