By Vivian Salama
WASHINGTON -- As the U.S. pursues the sale of more than $2
billion of tanks and other weapons to Taiwan, the Trump
administration is split over the potential repercussions the deal
may have on efforts to reignite trade talks with China.
Concerns are growing among some in the administration that
China's president, Xi Jinping, may use the weapons deal as one more
excuse not to meet with Mr. Trump later this month on the sidelines
of the Group of 20 summit in Japan, according to three White House
and administration officials.
One of the officials said there is already only "a 50-50 chance"
of those talks happening, given how fragile the relationship has
become over Mr. Trump's escalating tariffs, and the weapons sale
may jeopardize even those chances. But others, including national
security adviser John Bolton, see the sale as necessary for
strengthening Washington's alliance with Taiwan and countering
Chinese aggression.
In theory, the weapons deal is a business opportunity Mr. Trump
would see as bolstering the U.S. economy. But it also could have
short-term implications on his efforts to strike a deal with the
world's second-largest economy.
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunified with
the mainland one day and has never renounced the use of force to
bring the self-ruled island under its control. The U.S. is the main
arms supplier to Taiwan, but recognizes China and has formal ties
with it rather than with Taiwan, in keeping with China's "One
China" policy.
For a time after Mr. Trump was elected president, this policy
appeared to be on the brink of change. Weeks after the 2016
election, Mr. Trump spoke by telephone with Taiwan President Tsai
Ing-wen. That broke with decades of U.S. policy of the president or
president-elect not communicating directly with Taiwan's leader and
infuriated the Chinese government.
After taking office, Mr. Trump focused on developing a better
trade arrangement with China -- albeit through the use of punitive
tariffs, which he believes to be an effective compliance mechanism
-- and Taiwan took a back seat.
But many within the administration, including foreign policy
hawks, view closer ties with Taiwan as essential for U.S. national
security interests in Asia, mainly as a counterpoint to Chinese
aggression, and have pursued this policy throughout Mr. Trump's
time in office.
Then in March a year ago, Taiwan was back on the president's
radar -- in a very different light. Mr. Trump's trade tit-for-tat
with China had begun, and he was eager to get the Chinese to the
table.
Beijing was already furious over a law signed by Mr. Trump that
encourages the U.S. to send senior officials to Taiwan to meet
Taiwanese counterparts and vice versa. Mr. Trump got word that a
State Department diplomat, Alex Wong, had traveled to Taipei,
Taiwan's capital, to communicate the Trump administration's
commitment to closer ties with the island.
Mr. Trump sounded off to his aides.
"Who the f -- k is this guy?" he lashed out, referring to Mr.
Wong, and questioned what U.S. diplomats were doing in Taiwan,
according to a person with direct knowledge of the discussion. The
president requested that no American diplomats travel to Taiwan
while he is working on a deal with China.
Mr. Wong serves as deputy assistant secretary for North Korea in
the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He is also the deputy
special representative for North Korea. While in Taipei in March
last year, Mr. Wong communicated America's strong U.S. commitment
to Taiwan and described the island as an inspiration to the rest of
the Indo-Pacific region.
Mr. Wong, the State Department and the White House didn't
respond to requests for comment.
Warmer relations continued to grow with Taiwan, despite the
president's objections, according to multiple current and former
administration officials. Regional tensions over Taiwan and the
South China Sea have flared up in recent months, and Mr. Trump's
national security aides, as well as many Republican lawmakers, see
closer U.S. ties to Taiwan as imperative to regional security.
Aides explained to Mr. Trump the strategic importance of Taiwan,
the officials said, persuading him that a stronger U.S. presence
there counters any plans by China to expand its influence beyond
the mainland. Many Republicans also view support for Taiwan's
budding democracy as a policy priority.
It took some convincing, but Mr. Trump came around, the
officials said, and he now sees the value in using Taiwan as a
bargaining chip in his talks with China.
The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.
And the administration is growing increasingly vocal in its
support for Taiwan. Mr. Bolton wrote on Twitter in April that
"Chinese military provocation won't win any hearts or minds in
Taiwan, but they will strengthen the resolve of people everywhere
who value democracy."
Mr. Bolton also hosted Taiwan's national security chief, David
Lee, last month, marking the first public visit to Washington of
its kind since the two countries ended formal diplomatic ties in
1979.
Typically, the foreign military sales process begins when a
country submits a formal letter of request that specifies a desired
military capability and a rough price. The State Department manages
the process, in close partnership with the Defense Department,
which works with U.S. defense contractors. Sales are approved after
U.S. government review and congressional notification, when
required.
Taiwan's defense ministry has asked for 108 cutting-edge M1A2
Abrams tanks, 1,240 TOW antiarmor missiles, 409 Javelin antitank
missiles and 250 Stinger man-portable air defense systems -- all
defensive weapons that can't reach the Chinese mainland.
An informal notification of the proposed sale was sent to
Congress earlier this month.
A sale isn't currently expected to receive any pushback on
Capitol Hill.
Responding to news of the pending sale, China's foreign ministry
spokesman said, "We urge the U.S. to fully understand the high
sensitivity and serious harm of the issue of arms sales to Taiwan
and abide by the One China principle."
Taiwan has also requested more than 60 F-16 jet fighters, an
order that may face significant hurdles. Officials say that it's
the latter deal that, while good for the U.S. economy, could deal a
serious blow to the U.S.-China relationship because jets can reach
the mainland.
"There is growing anxiety in China that the administration is
really pushing the envelope and no longer adhering to any sense of
maintaining an unofficial relationship with Taiwan and maybe even
moving toward abandoning the One China policy," said Bonnie Glaser,
a senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power
Project at Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The only way you get through to this president is to do it in
person," she added. "If Xi Jinping wants to register his complaints
about the Taiwan weapons, he needs to do it in person."
Write to Vivian Salama at vivian.salama@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 17, 2019 17:33 ET (21:33 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.